The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $11,500 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
After missing the second leg of a back-to-back, Luka Doncic picked up right where he left off with a 34-point performance in a victory over the Timberwolves. It was his 17th game scoring 30+ points in his last 19 contests. Doncic continues to rank second in the league behind Joel Embiid in scoring and usage rate this season. He is averaging a career-high in points and assists per game and has by far the highest projected ceiling in our NBA Model for DraftKings and FanDuel on this slate.
The Mavericks are 8.5-point home favorites against the Grizzlies, who lost Ja Morant to season-ending shoulder surgery. There is plenty of value on this slate without Morant, which makes getting exposure to Doncic more attainable. His salary is very high, but raw points are more valuable on short slates like this five-gamer.
Doncic is a strong play in all formats tonight.
Top Value: Killian Hayes vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,500 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
FanDuel was quick to move on raising the salary of Killian Hayes with Cade Cunningham out, but DraftKings was not. Priced at $4,500 on DraftKings, Hayes is projected for the highest ownership on the slate. He has a 96% Bargain Rating and is projected to play close to 30 minutes. This is a bet on opportunity because Hayes is not a good NBA player. In his four-year career, Hayes is shooting just 38% from the field and 27.7% from behind the arc while averaging 8.3 points per game.
It shouldn’t be a surprise the Pistons are double-digit home underdogs without their best player. However, this game does have the highest total on the slate at 240 points. Hayes hasn’t scored double-digit points in over a month, but he does have three 20-point games this season.
Prioritize Hayes on DraftKings and keep his exposure mainly to the cash game streets.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Kyrie Irving vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
If getting up to Luka Doncic is too difficult, Kyrie Irving offers a pretty high ceiling himself, but at a much lower price tag. Since coming back from injury, Irving has posted three consecutive games with a double-digit Plus/Minus. In that three-game stretch, Irving is averaging 29.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.3 steals per game with a 30.9% usage rate. Playing Irving and Doncic together is possible on this short slate, especially with the lack of stud options to choose from.
In his second year with the Mavericks, Irving has gotten dialed in from long distance. He is shooting a career-best 42% from downtown and has shot 15-for-26 from behind the arc in his last four games. The Grizzlies have been susceptible to the long ball, allowing opponents to shoot 38.5% from deep, which is tied for the fifth-highest in the league.
Bombs away, Kyrie.
Top Value: Marcus Smart at Dallas Mavericks – $6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
With Ja Morant sidelined, there are plenty of Grizzlies guards worth getting exposure to on tonight’s slate. Marcus Smart looks like one of the best options, given how well he has played recently. In back-to-back games, Smart is averaging 27 points, 6.5 assists, four rebounds, and two steals per game with a 25.7% usage rate. He has attempted 27 3-pointers in his past two games, connecting on 12 of them. With no Morant, Smart will need to be hunting his perimeter shot early and often.
The Mavericks are playing at the league’s eighth-fastest pace this season, which is way more inviting than their 28th-ranked pace last year. The game total is 234.5 points, making this an exploitable matchup. In the one game that Smart played against the Mavericks, he nearly had a double-double with 23 points and nine assists, making five 3-pointers in that meeting.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane at Dallas Mavericks – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
With shooting guard and small forward eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Desmond Bane is one of the top plays on the slate. He has benefited the most this year with Morant suspended and now will get free reign again with the star point guard out for the season. Bane is averaging a career-high in points, assists, and field goal attempts this season. Taking nearly 20 shots a night, his usage rate jumps to 29.5% in the 26 games that he has played without Morant on the floor.
Similar to Smart, Bane has been scorching hot shooting the ball recently. In his last four games, he is shooting 57.1% from the field and 40.7% from behind the arc. He is averaging 23.3 points and seven assists per game, with one double-double during that time.
Priced at $8,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Bane is going to be a popular option tonight.
Top Value: Bojan Bogdanovic vs. Sacramento Kings – $6,700 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
The player who benefits the most with Cade Cunningham out is forward Bojan Bogdanovic. With Cunningham off the floor this season, Bogdanovic leads the team with a +3.96 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +4.31% usage rate. He has shown the ability to score over 30 points and be in the optimal lineup in the past and will now get a better chance at a ceiling game with Cunningham out. The Pistons will need Bogdanovic’s scoring if they want to keep this game remotely competitive.
In his second year with the Pistons, Bogdanovic has played the veteran role perfectly for this young team. He ranks second on the team in scoring behind Cunningham and is attempting a career-high 15.5 field goal attempts per game. The Kings do allow opponents to shoot 38.5% from behind the arc, and Bogdanovic has proven that he isn’t afraid to let it fly from deep.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Toronto Raptors – $10,100 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
With power forward and center eligibility, Anthony Davis is another strong pay-up option on tonight’s five-game slate. Among the studs, Davis is clearly going to be the most contrarian option with his 10% projected ownership on DraftKings and 5% on FanDuel. However, he leads the slate with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and has a 94% Bargain Rating. Davis’ inconsistent play makes him a tournament play anyway, but he has shown 70+ DraftKings point upside recently.
The Raptors have a small frontcourt with Jakob Poeltl out for this matchup. They already rank 22nd in points allowed in the paint with 52.4 per game, and now, without Poeltl, the Raptors are going to have a difficult time slowing down Davis.
There is always a chance that LeBron James won’t play. He is questionable with an ankle injury, so keep an eye on his status.
Top Value: Pascal Siakam at Los Angeles Lakers – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Despite being priced in the upper mid-range, Pascal Siakam has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. He has seen his production dip a little bit with the addition of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, but the sample size is still small. The efficiency for Siakam has been the best since the 2018-’19 season. He is shooting a career-best 52.4% from the field and averaging 22.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game this season.
Poeltl being out will increase the chances that Siakam can rack up a double-double. He only has four on the season, but Siakam will be in the paint more often, helping out on Anthony Davis. Siakam will be popular, especially in balanced builds.
He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last nine games and has a great opportunity for another strong game.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Detroit Pistons – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Domantas Sabonis has the highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The versatile big man has been putting on a clinic recently with a triple-double in six of his last 11 games. He has had a great year leading the Kings in both rebounding and distributing while ranking second in scoring behind De’Aaron Fox. Sabonis is averaging a career-high in both rebounds and assists and shooting 59.4% from the field. In this matchup, he looks fantastic tonight.
The Pistons rank 27th in defensive rating this season while allowing 122.6 points per game. Over 44% of those points have come in the paint, where Sabonis lives. Among the pay-up options, he is the most popular across the industry. He looks great on FanDuel, where he is power forward and center eligible with the highest Bargain Rating among the studs.
Top Value: Jalen Duren vs. Sacramento Kings – $7,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
Staying in the same game, Pistons’ starting center, Jalen Duren, is one of the better values on the slate. With Cunningham off the floor this season, Duren leads the Pistons with a team-high +5.41% usage rate. Not only is Cunningham out, but so is Isaiah Stewart, which boosts the usage rate and production for Duren. Since returning from injury, Duren is averaging a double-double with 15.3 points and 12.4 rebounds per game. He has a double-double in all but one game over that time.
The matchup against Sabonis and the Kings will be tough, but there will be plenty of opportunity to rack up points and rebounds in this game environment. Duren is -160 to record a double-double on the DraftKings sportsbook, which solidifies how strong of a fantasy play he is.
The Pistons may be double-digit underdogs, but Duren is a great option in all formats.
