Sunday Night gives us a huge matchup with the AFC East division crown on the line. The Bills are listed as three-point road favorites, while the total sits at 48 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Sunday Night’s showdown slate is star-studded, with Tyreek Hill leading the way on the Miami side. Hill has cooled off as of late, with fewer than 20 DraftKings points and under 100 yards in three straight games. To be fair, Hill did drop a surefire touchdown that would’ve put him above the 20-point threshold.
Jaylen Waddle is expected to miss this contest, which is good news for Hill’s usage. Hill has a 36% target rate per route run on the year, and that number jumps to 44% with Waddle sidelined.
Buffalo has allowed the seventh-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, and they’ve kept Hill in check in past matchups. Hill has stat lines of 2/33/0, 9/69/1, 7/69/0, and 3/58/0 in his four games against the Bills. Hill is a very strong option on Sunday Night.
Josh Allen narrowly edges out Hill as the top projected player on the slate. Allen shredded the Dolphins in Week 4, throwing for 320 yards and four touchdowns while running for another on the ground.
Miami has lost Bradley Chubb for the season, which is quietly a huge injury. With Chubb and Jaelan Phillips (got hurt in Week 12) off the field, Miami has just a 32% pressure rate, which is 28th in the league. Miami’s entire defense is reliant on getting pressure. Josh Allen should be able to shred this defense.
Speaking of monstrous Week 4 performances, Stefon Diggs had 120 yards and three touchdowns en route to 39 DraftKings points. Miami now has Jalen Ramsey, and it’s interesting to see if they deploy him on Diggs. I’m expecting people to opt for Allen, Hill, or Tua Tagovailoa over Diggs, which gives me an interest in the Buffalo stud receiver.
It’s been rough lately for Tagovailoa, with six straight games below 20 DraftKings points. He couldn’t get much going in the first matchup, posting just 14.98 DraftKings points.
Buffalo has allowed the eighth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Tagovailoa has just five total touchdowns in his six games against the Bills.
With Raheem Mostert sidelined, De’Von Achane had 14 carries for 107 yards while catching four of five targets for 30 yards and a score last week. Buffalo has been middling against opposing backs, and Achane had 120 yards and two touchdowns when these teams last played. He’s one of the top options on the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
James Cook headlines the mid-range, and he’s had strong usage recently. He only has 11.4 DraftKings points over the past two weeks, but he’s seen 37 total touches. Miami has been solid against opposing backs on the ground, but vulnerable through the air.
Cook has flashed a lot of ability in the receiving game, with four receiving touchdowns on the year and seven games of four or more targets.
The Gabe Davis rollercoaster keeps chugging along, as he had 26 DraftKings points in Week 16 followed by 4.1 last week. He had a fine showing in the first matchup, catching three balls for 61 yards and a touchdown. If Ramsey ends up shadowing Diggs, then Davis would get a lot of run on weak cornerbacks.
With New England being stout against wide receivers, Dalton Kincaid had a busy day last week, catching four of seven targets for 87 yards. The problem for Kincaid is that Dawson Knox is healthy, and Kincaid’s splits have been far worse when Knox plays.
Knox is a viable touchdown-or-bust value play, but I don’t have too much interest in Kincaid.
Khalil Shakir has run a route on about 70% of the dropbacks with Knox back in the lineup. He’s a little too expensive in my opinion, but he is viable. He had four catches for 39 yards last week.
If Waddle misses, which I’m expecting, Cedrick Wilson becomes an interesting target, as he’s run a route on over 90% of the dropbacks with Waddle off the field. He saw four targets last week, catching two balls for 27 yards.
Jeff Wilson Jr. led the Miami backfield in snaps last week, but he had just three carries and four targets. He’s an intriguing cheap option on this slate, but I think I’d avoid playing him and Achane in the same lineup.
Durham Smythe has seen slightly more usage with all the receiver injuries recently, totaling 12 catches for 142 yards over the past three games. He’s a viable salary saver despite Buffalo allowing the fourth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing tight ends.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Braxton Berrios ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): I prefer Smythe to Berrios, but Berrios figures to have an increased role if Waddle is in fact out.
- Alec Ingold ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Ingold is the guy if you’re looking for a total punt, with four targets over the past two weeks and 16 total on the year.
