Saturday Night gives us a win-and-in in the AFC South. Winning guarantees a playoff spot, and potentially the division crown if Jacksonville were to lose on Sunday. The loser of this contest goes home and is done until next season. The Texans are listed as 1.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 47.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The Texans and Colts give us a congested and interesting stud section, with rookie C.J. Stroud leading the way. He was my favorite quarterback play last week, but he only mustered 12.92 DraftKings points.
Houston moved the ball with ease but had three drives stall in the red zone leading to field goals. They also had a defensive touchdown, and Tennessee’s inability to put points on the board allowed Houston to just sit on the ball. This led to a light day for Stroud, throwing for just 213 yards and a score.
I’m very high on Stroud once again, as this matchup looks like a perfect storm. Stroud’s splits are drastically different depending on pressure, as he’s picked apart opposing defenses when kept clean. When not under pressure, Stroud has averaged 9.3 yards per attempt, which is the second-highest in the league. Indianapolis has the seventh-lowest pressure rate in the entire league.
Indianapolis also plays Cover 3 and Cover 4 at a combined 60% rate, which is good news for the young quarterback. Stroud is third in the league in yards per attempt against these coverages, averaging 8.9 yards. Stroud is a smash play on Saturday Night and a strong option in the captain slot.
Tank Dell had been Stroud’s go-to guy against Cover 3/4, but Nico Collins has slid into that role as of late. With Stroud in, Collins has averaged a 31% target rate per route run and 3.71 yards per route run against Cover 3, and 21% and 2.94 yards marks against Cover 4. Dell had a 32% target rate per route run against Cover 4, so those targets will likely disperse more in Collins’ favor going forward.
Collins shredded Indianapolis in Week 2, catching seven of nine targets for 146 yards and a touchdown. He has a 26.2% target share and a 29.2% target rate per route run now with Stroud in and Dell out. He’s a very strong option on Saturday.
Michael Pittman Jr. leads the way on the Colts’ side. He returned from a concussion that he suffered in Week 15 against Pittsburgh, catching five of seven targets for 46 yards. It’s a modest stat line, but Indianapolis leaned on the ground game, as Gardner Minshew II only attempted 23 passes. Pittman’s seven targets were good for over 30% of the team targets, which has been common with Minshew under center.
Houston has a solid defense, but Pittman runs routes from both the perimeter and slot, so he should be able to find the soft spot. When these teams played in Week 2, Pittman saw 12 targets, catching eight balls for 56 yards.
It’s been a mixed bag for Minshew this year, topping 20 DraftKings points just three times. The Colts like to lean on the ground game when they can, and the passing game is so consolidated around Pittman that Minshew isn’t a priority. Houston has allowed the third-most yards per attempt since Week 7, which gives reason for optimism.
Jonathan Taylor runs into a tough matchup here, as Houston has allowed the fewest yards per carry to opposing backs this year.
Houston has been more vulnerable to opposing backs through the air, but Taylor has just one target in each of the past two games. His efficiency on the ground has been middling, as he’s been reliant on touchdowns to pay off as of late. Over his last four games, Taylor has averaged just 8.33 DraftKings points per game without touchdowns.
Zack Moss is also returning to the lineup after missing the last two games. He and Taylor haven’t been on the field together for a few weeks, but when they were both last healthy, Moss mostly took a backseat to Taylor. He’ll certainly mix in, but this is Taylor’s backfield.
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NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Devin Singletary headlines the midrange, and he’s had a stranglehold over the backfield touches recently. He’s out-touched Dameon Pierce 61-to-14 over the past three weeks while seeing work on the ground and through the air.
This is a matchup where expected volume meets expected efficiency, as the Colts have allowed the third most rushing yards per game and 10th-most yards per carry to opposing backs since Week 10.
Noah Brown left last week’s contest with an injury after running only five routes and has been ruled out for this contest.
This gives the rest of Houston’s pass-catchers a boost, as they’re underpriced. Robert Woods hasn’t practiced this week and is currently listed as questionable. He’ll round out 2-WR sets if he’s able to go, but if he isn’t, that thrusts John Metchie III and Xavier Hutchinson into larger roles.
Both Metchie and Hutchinson stepped up last week after Brown and Woods left with injuries. Metchie played on 61% of the snaps, while Hutchinson played on 43%.
Looking earlier in the season, Metchie seemed to see his playing time spike when Noah Brown or Tank Dell were limited. He only appeared on 30% of the snaps in three games before Week 14. One game came with Brown out and Dell playing only 36% of the snaps. Another was with Brown out, and the last was when Dell only played on only 13% of the snaps in Week 13.
Hutchinson barely saw usage for the first 13 weeks, topping 20% of the snaps just once. However, with Nico Collins playing 5% of the snaps in Week 14 and missing Week 15, Hutchinson played 73% and 84% of the snaps.
I’ll just skip to the point. With Woods missing practice all week, I’m expecting him to miss the game. This would be the easiest situation because then Metchie and Hutchinson would both be used extensively. If Woods plays, it’s more confusing trying to figure out which receiver sees more work. Hutchinson is currently projected better, but past usage shows Metchie as more of a replacement for Brown. If Woods plays, I lean in favor of Metchie, but both would be elite salary savers.
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Alec Pierce and Josh Downs round out the Indianapolis receiver room. Pierce has been an every-down receiver, but it hasn’t led to much usage. He did have a 58-yard touchdown last week, but it was his only target of the game.
If choosing one, I prefer Downs. He’s struggled as of late, but he’s racked up usage from Minshew before, and there’s no reason he and Pierce should be priced this close.
Dalton Schultz will almost surely benefit from all the wide receiver injuries. He’s seen 21% and 22% target rates per route run against Cover 4 and Cover 3, and with Houston missing Brown and potentially Woods, he could be in for more work. He’s a very strong click in the midrange.
Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox make up Indianapolis’ tight end rotation, with the duo appearing on 63% and 61% of the snaps last week. Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory have been in the picture in weeks past, but Ogletree saw no snaps last week, and Mallory saw just nine.
Granson saw seven targets in Week 16 and three last week, while Alie-Cox saw one and three, respectively. Mallory hasn’t played much but has four and one target in the past two weeks. Granson is a fine value option, but I prefer Alie-Cox to Mallory as he plays more and has had a role around the goal line.
Brevin Jordan played on 51% of the snaps last week, seeing two targets and catching both for 19 yards and a score. With all of the receiver injuries, Houston could opt for more two tight end sets, making Jordan an overlooked asset who could see an expanded role.
