The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Boston Celtics – $10,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
For the first time all season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not record a steal in his last game. The league leader with 2.6 steals per game will look to get back on track in this home matchup against the Celtics. Not only did Gilgeous-Alexander fail to record a steal last game, but he also finished with a negative Plus/Minus for the first time in his last seven games. Despite Gilgeous-Alexander’s struggles, the Thunder still won by a comfortable margin to bring their record to 22-9 on the season.
Even though the Celtics and Thunder both rank in the top three in defensive rating, the game total has risen to 240 points, which is by far the highest on the slate. The Thunder are 3.5-point home underdogs but still have a 118.5-point implied total.
Prioritize Gilgeous-Alexander on DraftKings, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating and remains a little too cheap at $10,300.
Top Value: Ish Smith at Sacramento Kings – $4,300 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
It may have been because he got his NBA Championship ring last night, but Ish Smith played a season-high 29 minutes against the Nuggets. He finished with 10 points, four assists, and three assists while having a 25.2% usage rate. Projected to play 29 minutes again tonight, Smith has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FanDuel and the third-highest for DraftKings. Priced near the stone minimum on both sites, Smith looks like one of the best values on this six-game slate.
Smith will likely draw his third start of the season tonight with starters Terry Rozier, LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Mark Williams all out. The Hornets are 15-point road underdogs, having lost 11 consecutive games. Despite an expected blowout, Smith’s salary is impossible to ignore. He should easily pay off his cheap salary and is a strong play in cash games.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Desmond Bane vs. San Antonio Spurs – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Desmond Bane has seen his usage rate and production dip in the last three games for no apparent reason. He still has displayed a ceiling playing alongside Ja Morant this season, and this is a great matchup to get back on track. The Grizzlies host the Spurs as double-digit favorites, with an implied total of 122.75 points. The Spurs are an exploitable matchup with their third-ranked pace and 25th-ranked defensive rating. The Grizzlies sharpshooter is in a great spot to bounce back.
In his six games playing with Morant this season, Bane has seen an increase in his scoring, rebounding, and distributing despite his usage rate decreasing. The efficiency of the Grizzlies offense with Morant increases significantly. Their offensive rating jumps from 106.7 to 110.6 with the electric point guard in the lineup.
Morant and Bane play extremely well together.
Top Value: Malaki Branham at Memphis Grizzlies – $5,000 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Staying in the same game, Spurs guard Malaki Branham has scored double-digit points in 11 of his last 12 games and is another viable value guard on tonight’s slate. In his second year in the league, Branham has seen his playing time fluctuate. He has started in 20 of his 32 games played and is averaging just below 10 points per game. Branham is expected to start again tonight and is projected to play around 27 minutes. That is plenty of time to pay off his salary, especially on FanDuel.
Branham has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the shooting guard position on FanDuel with his cheap $4,400 price tag. He has a 94% Bargain Rating and has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last 11 games. Sitting at 5-27, the Spurs need to continue seeing what they have in their young guys like Branham. He is simply too cheap on FanDuel tonight.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,800 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
The Celtics are fully healthy, which means the ownership of all of their players will be relatively low. In these situations, targeting Jayson Tatum is the most intriguing. He has had big games for us already this season at low ownership, and tonight could be another ceiling game. Tatum’s projected ceiling doesn’t look as juicy as the other studs in his pricing tier, but in the best game environment on the slate at 240 points, it is worth taking a shot on one of the best players in the league.
Priced at $9,800 on DraftKings and FanDuel, Tatum is underpriced. He has 11 Pro Trends on both sites with small forward and power forward eligibility. Tatum continues to lead the Celtics in points, rebounds, and usage rate this season. The Thunder rank seventh in pace, making this an up-tempo matchup.
Tatum is a great way to be contrarian at the top tonight.
Top Value: Chris Duarte vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,000 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel
Chris Duarte moved back into the starting lineup to replace Kevin Huerter last game and will likely be there for the foreseeable future. Duarte played 26 minutes and posted a respectable seven points and six rebounds. It was the second straight game that Duarte played 25+ minutes. Projected for a similar playing time tonight, Duarte is a strong value play in all formats. With Duarte’s playing time starting to rapidly increase, now is the time to get exposure before he gets expensive.
It wouldn’t be shocking if Duarte not only started but got blowout run as well. The Kings are 15-point home favorites against the Hornets, who rank dead last in defensive rating at 121.7. The Hornets are allowing opponents to shoot 49.9% from the field and a league-high 39.7% from behind the arc. This season, 57% of Duarte’s field goal attempts have come from deep.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero at Golden State Warriors – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Paolo Banchero has put together back-to-back strong performances against tougher opponents in the Knicks and Suns. He eclipsed 50 DraftKings points in both games, averaging a near double-double with 28.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game while shooting 50% from the field. Banchero will get the luxury of playing against the Warriors, who are worse defensively without Draymond Green in the lineup. In the 17 games without him, their defensive rating decreases from 114.5 to 118.7.
Leading the Magic in points, rebounds, and assists, Banchero has been a key factor in the team’s success this season. In just his second year in the league, Banchero is averaging career-highs across the board. He has also taken on a bigger responsibility on offense, with a 28.3% usage rate.
All things are pointing to a great game from Banchero in this matchup.
Top Value: Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. San Antonio Spurs – $7,200 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
The power forward value on both sites is weak for tonight’s six-game slate. Jaren Jackson Jr., who is priced under $8,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, is the best bet for value. Jackson Jr. hasn’t benefited quite as much playing alongside Morant, but he is still averaging over 20 points per game in their six games played together. Averaging a career-high 27.4% usage rate and still blocking over 1.5 shots per game, Jackson Jr. is in a spot against the Spurs that is worth getting exposure to.
The Spurs continue to get torched by opposing centers. They are allowing 52.1 points per game in the paint and rank 27th in rebounding percentage at 47.9%. In his only matchup against the Spurs this season, Jackson Jr. scored 27 points while attempting 20 field goal attempts and 12 free throws.
If he can stay aggressive in this matchup, Jackson Jr. looks fantastic.
Center
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Chicago Bulls – $11,000 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
After missing the last four games with an ankle injury, Joel Embiid is set to return to action tonight against the Bulls. Nikola Vucevic is out, but the Bulls have received great minutes from veteran Andre Drummond. Even though Drummond has the size to match up with Embiid, no one can stop him. Embiid leads the league in scoring, usage rate, free throws made and attempted and ranks fifth in rebounds per game. He has the highest projected ceiling on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
Embiid has recorded a double-double in 13 straight games. Over that time, he has averaged 37.8 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 69.7 DraftKings points per game. Embiid has a positive Plus/Minus in all 13 games on DraftKings and 12 of 13 on FanDuel. His $11,000 salary on DraftKings is resulting in a 95% Bargain Rating.
Don’t get cute; play the best player on the slate.
Top Value: Trayce Jackson-Davis vs. Orlando Magic – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
After stringing together several great games in a row, Trayce Jackson-Davis was rewarded with his first start in his career last game. The rookie was impressive, scoring a season-high 17 points on 8-for-11 shooting from the field and pulled down six rebounds. Likely staying in the starting lineup, Jackson-Davis is projected for the highest Plus/Minus on the slate for DraftKings and the fifth-highest for FanDuel. Proving his value, he also has three double-doubles in his last six games.
Jackson-Davis is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings but does have power forward and center eligibility on FanDuel, making him a fantastic value play on both sites. The matchup isn’t ideal against the Magic, who rank in the top six for both defensive rating and rebounding percentage.
However, Jackson-Davis’ cheap salary across the industry negates the difficult matchup.
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