The college football schedule on New Year’s Day has thrown a wrench into our usual primetime football schedule. Instead of our typical Monday night football showdown, Week 17’s tilt between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys has been moved to Saturday night. Irrespective of the day, this promises to be one of the most entertaining matchups of the weekend. Both teams still have conceivable paths to the top of the conference, potentially earning the coveted first-round bye. Consequently, we’re expecting the Lions and Cowboys to come out guns-a-blazing in this one.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Lions-Cowboys NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Josh Reynolds Higher 19.5 Receiving Yards
We have to be choosy on betting against the Cowboys’ secondary, but there’s one Lions pass-catcher whose projections are just too low. We’re targeting Josh Reynolds with our first pick, expecting him to exceed his modest receiving yards at AT&T Stadium.
Reynolds has been a solid role player in Detroit’s receiving corps. The former fourth-round pick has a respectable 10.2% target share, ranking third on the team in receiving yards while leading the way with an impressive 16.2 yards per reception. We’ve seen the Cowboys lose sight of similar receivers to Reynolds, giving him a pronounced advantage on Saturday night.
The Cowboys have struggled to contain big body receivers. Cedrick Wilson had a banner game against Dallas last week, setting a seven-week high with three catches. The 6’2″ Miami Dolphins receiver went off for 42 yards, his third-best performance of the season. Likewise big body receivers like A.J. Brown, DK Metcalfe, and Byron Pringle had noteworthy efforts in the preceding weeks, illustrating the Cowboys’ weaknesses in containing receivers that stand taller than six feet.
Reynolds has been a complementary piece of the Lions’ offensive packages and has the ability to shine in Dallas. The Cowboys don’t have a defender that matches up against imposing receivers, setting Reynolds up for a marquee showing under the bright lights.
Sam LaPorta Lower 51.5 Receiving Yards
Sam LaPorta has done nothing but impress in his rookie season. The Lions’ tight end has been a safety blanket for Jared Goff, quickly moving up the progression charts and earning a more robust target share at the outset of the campaign. However, he’s hitting a bit of a wall as the season progresses, venturing into unchartered territory in terms of longevity and workload. Those issues could be made worse by a Cowboys defense that has effectively shut down tight ends.
LaPorta’s production has been waning over the past few weeks. The Iowa product has totaled just 97 yards over his last three outings for a disappointing 32.3 yards per game. Further, he’s fallen below 32 receiving yards in two of three while setting a disappointing high mark of 56.
The more concerning factor impacting our outlook on LaPorta is his diminishing catch rate. The rookie is down to 66.7% over the modest three-game sample, below his season-long average of 73.3%. As the season stretches on, LaPorta could be having a hard time adapting to the rigors of a lengthy pro schedule.
Finally, we can’t discount Dallas’s pass defense. Only one opposing tight end has eclipsed 43 receiving yards over the Cowboys’ last seven games, and that was Drew Smythe last week. Dallas is poised for a bounce-back effort at home on Saturday night, limiting LaPorta to lower than 51.5 receiving yards.
Tony Pollard Lower 15.5 Rushing Attempts
At the start of the season, Tony Pollard was expected to be one of the few every-down running backs shouldering a heavy workload. Although he was deployed as such early in 2023, the Cowboys have loosened the reigns as the season progresses. We’re not expecting a reversal of that trend in Week 17’s battle against the Lions.
Pollard’s two busiest games came in the first three weeks of the season. In Week 2 and 3, Pollard totaled 25 and 23 carries, respectively, representing 21.0% of his season-long workload. Moreover, he’s surpassed 15 carries just two times since then, illustrating his diminished capacity in the Cowboys offense.
Few teams have enjoyed success running the ball against the Lions, and that will necessitate the Cowboys going in a different direction. Detroit gives up the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, limiting opponents to a paltry 90.6. Somehow, they’ve tightened that standard more recently, corraling their last three opponents to a combined 242 rushing yards, or just 80.7 per game.
Since Week 4, Pollard is averaging 13.1 carries, well below his rushing attempts total versus the Lions. His ceiling is also limited by a ferocious Lions’ rush defense that has bottled up opposing running backs all season. All signs point toward another sub-optimal effort from Pollard, with the Cowboys’ rusher falling below 15.5 rushing attempts at home.
David Montgomery Higher 7.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, we’re going back to the well with another Lions’ receiving projection for our final pick. There is no shortage of playmakers in the Lions’ offense, with virtually everyone factoring into the passing game. Although Jahmyr Gibbs typically serves as the pass-catching running back, David Montgomery has been a reliable outlet for Jared Goff, as well. Considering his constant involvement on offense, Montgomery’s receiving yards are set far too low for Saturday Night Football.
The Cowboys defense has been effective in downfield coverage this season. We’re anticipating that will force Goff to work through his progressions more quickly, eventually landing on check-downs to his running backs more frequently.
We’ve already seen that play out over the past few weeks. Montgomery has been targeted ten times over his last four games, nearly matching the 13 targets he had from Week 1 to Week 11. Since then, the Lions running back has been reliable when called upon, hauling in all but two of those targets and totaling 29 receiving yards over that four-game stretch.
Dallas defenders don’t have a great track record at limiting running backs in the passing game. In Week 16, the Dolphins’ rushers combined for 27 receiving yards while catching five of seven passes. The week prior, James Cook needed just two catches to get up to 42 receiving yards. Montgomery should be the latest running back to add to that trend, finding his way north of 7.5 receiving yards against the Cowboys.
