Friday presents an eight-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
The Hawks host the Kings tonight, and this clash of top 10 teams in pace and bottom 10 defenses presents the highest total on the slate by over 10 points (252 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Additionally, this contest carries the tightest spread on the board, with Atlanta only favored by one point, and Young should have a huge performance in this elite setting. De’Andre Hunter (knee) is out for the Hawks, and Young is amassing 55.6 DraftKings PPG with the forward inactive this season (six games) with a 33.4% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool.
Young leads Atlanta with 1.5 DraftKings PPM with Hunter off the floor this season and has been brilliant in totals of at least 245 points this season, amassing 61.2 DraftKings PPG (five games), via the Trends Tool.
All things considered, Young is underpriced for tonight’s situation and is arguably the best expensive value on the board.
Top Value: De’Anthony Melton at Houston Rockets – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Despite the tough matchup vs. this Rockets club that ranks second in defensive efficiency, Melton is a strong option tonight, especially at only $6,100 on DraftKings. Joel Embiid (ankle) will miss his third in a row, and with the center sidelined, Melton has exposed two difficult matchups in the Heat and the Magic for an average of 38.75 DraftKings PPG.
Overall, for the five starts Melton has made without Embiid this season, he is producing 35.6 DraftKings PPG, which is right over 5x value for Melton at his current salaries.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $9,500 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Mitchell is a key name to monitor tonight because if the guard is active, he’ll be an elite target for GPPs, as the guard should get overlooked coming off a four-game absence. Mitchell has missed the last four with an illness but feels likely to make his return tonight, as the guard was able to participate in the shootaround before the Cavs’ last game. Given this, it would be surprising if Mitchell didn’t suit up tonight, and barring any restrictions, he should thrive against this Bucks defense that has struggled to slow down opposing guards all season.
Milwaukee ranks fourth in pace and 20th in defensive efficiency this season, and this game’s total is the third highest on the board (239.5 points), which is the largest the Cavs competed in this season. This is a testament to how strong of a matchup this truly is for Cleveland, and they remain without both Darius Garland (jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee), giving Mitchell a robust workload if he is active.
Mitchell is supplying 53.5 DraftKings PPG in the two starts he has made with both Garland and Mobley out this season and leads the Cavs with 1.33 DraftKings PPM with the two starters off the floor, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Khris Middleton at Cleveland Cavaliers – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
After being limited to start this season, Middleton is back to full strength and looking like his old self. With at least 30 minutes of work in each of his last three starts, Middleton is contributing 41 DraftKings PPG. The veteran is amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 24.8% usage rate this season, and these price tags simply don’t take into account that he is back to handling a full complement of minutes.
Middleton should exceed 5x value in this high total vs. the Cavs (239.5 points) and brings similar upside to what we saw from him in his last start when he exposed the Nets for a season-high 51.25 DraftKings points Wednesday.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes at Boston Celtics – $8,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Barnes has been incredible recently and is making a serious case that he is the most improved player in the league this season. Barnes has been flirting with a triple-double on a nightly basis and is averaging 55.5 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts.
With career-highs in usage (24.7%) and assist rate (25.2%), he is leading the Raptors with 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season, and while this Celtics defense he is going against ranks fifth in efficiency, this should be a much easier matchup than expected.
Boston is playing their second game in two nights after defeating the Pistons in overtime last night, and they will likely be without many key players. Jaylen Brown (back) missed Thursday night, Jayson Tatum (ankle) said he expects to be questionable for Friday, and Al Horford has yet to play in both games of a back-to-back set this season.
Nonetheless, Barnes should have no issues in this spot and his impressive run should continue with another huge stat line.
Top Value: Jalen Williams at Denver Nuggets – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
The Thunder and Nuggets meet in Denver tonight, and this meeting between two of the best teams in the Western Conference should be an excellent tilt. The Nuggets are only favored by three points, and this game’s total is the fourth-highest on the slate (236.5 points). Williams is coming off a season-best 47 DraftKings point effort in a slow matchup vs. the Knicks on Wednesday and brings a similar celling in this compelling game setting in Denver.
The forward is handling a career-high usage rate this season (22.5%) and has topped 40 DraftKings in three of the last five games the Thunder have competed in a spread under five points.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Cleveland Cavaliers – $11,000 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
Antetokounmpo has scored over 60 DraftKings points in four of his past five and is particularly underpriced on DraftKings tonight. The former MVP ranks third in the league in usage rate (33.9%) and shouldn’t disappoint in this compelling environment vs. the Cavs. Not only does this game carry the third-highest total on the slate (239.5 points), but the Bucks’ implied team total is the fifth-largest on the board (122.75 points).
When playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or more this season, Antetokounmpo is scoring 62.5 DraftKings PPG and has topped 60 DraftKings points in nine of his 14 starts.
Top Value: Jalen Johnson vs. Sacramento Kings – $6,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
In his return from a 14-game absence due to a fractured wrist, Johnson posted 28.25 DraftKings points across 29 minutes Tuesday vs. the Bulls. With one game under his belt and the Hawks not playing tomorrow, Johnson should see over 30 minutes tonight in this slate-high total vs. the Kings (252 points), especially with Hunter sidelined.
Johnson provides 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Hunter off the court this season and is averaging 34.6 DraftKings PPG for the nine occasions he has logged over 30 minutes.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $11,200 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
Hosting the Thunder tonight, the Nuggets are only a three-point favorite for this marquee matchup, which is the least amount of points they have been favored by at home this season. Jokic should see a full workload and absolutely dominate in this competitive setting. The reigning Finals MVP is scoring 63.7 DraftKings PPG on his home floor this season, which is 4.6 more than when he is on the road. Furthermore, Jokic is producing 67.6 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 times he has competed in a spread under five points on his home floor.
Jokic is the No.1 option available tonight, and while he is viable on both sites, he is far too cheap at only $11,200 on DraftKings and is rating as a top-three value on the slate in our models.
Top Value: Neemis Queta vs. Toronto Raptors – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
While not official yet, Horford will be rested for the Celtics tonight, with this being their second game in two nights. The veteran logged 37 minutes in last night’s win over the Pistons and has yet to play in both legs of a back-to-back set this season.
Queta should operate as the Celtics’ backup center with Horford out tonight and see enough minutes to beat these price tags. The 24-year-old is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season and is collecting 26.5 DraftKings points in 21 minutes per game in the last three games that at least one of Horford or Kristaps Porzingis has missed for Boston.
Queta shouldn’t come with much ownership and is a punt worth taking a chance on in GPPs.
Update: On top of Horford being ruled out, Porzingis (injury management) is doubtful. While Queta isn’t a lock to start, he should see over 20 minutes and easily beat these salaries with Boston undermanned up front and is a great value for all formats, even though he is likely to be decently popular now after this news.
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