Week 17 features a 13-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
All the stars are out at quarterback in Week 17, with five different passers all projected for over 20 median points this week. The leader of the pack is Jalen Hurts ($8,300), whose Eagles have a massive 30-point team total against the Cardinals.
Philadelphia needs this win to stay ahead of the Cowboys for the NFC East lead, which should mean they lean heavily on their star quarterback. The Cardinals rank 31st in DVOA against both the pass and the run, both of which benefit the dual-threat Hurts.
Hurts and Josh Allen ($8,200) separate from the rest of the field thanks to their ability to pile up touchdowns on the ground. With a considerably easier matchup for Hurts, that makes him the clear top quarterback play on the slate. Fortunately, the large number of solid options means ownership will be reasonable on Hurts (and all of the quarterbacks), keeping him in play for both cash games and GPPs.
Value
There’s a solid debate between Jacoby Brissett ($4,900) and Tyrod Taylor ($4,600) this week, as both backup quarterbacks are getting the starting nod for their respective teams.
Brissett is taking over for the Commanders as they host the 49ers, a top-five passing defense by DVOA. The matchup is definitely tougher for Brissett than Taylor, but there are some factors working in his favor as well. The Commanders have way more talent at pass catcher than do the Giants. They’ve also been a top-three team in pass rate over expectation (PROE) all season. Brissett could have a bad game by real-life standards but still post a strong score, especially relative to his salary.
Editor’s note: After this article was written, Brissett (hamstring) was a late addition to the Commanders’ injury report and is considered a game-time decision.
On the other hand, Taylor and the Giants host the Rams, who rank 21st in DVOA against the pass on the season. The Giants have been reluctant to air it out regardless of matchup, though, with a negative PROE. In his two full games earlier this season, Taylor had 72 dropbacks (pass attempts + sacks) on 145 offensive snaps. That means New York called passing plays on less than 50% of their snaps. No team in the NFL has attempted passes on less than 53.9% of their snaps this season, and that’s without adding sacks back in.
All of which makes this a tough situation to evaluate. I’d probably lean towards Taylor for cash games if spending down at quarterback, as he’s less likely to totally implode in the softer matchup. Brissett has more upside, though, thanks to talented pass catchers and a possibility of high volume.
Quick Hits
It’s a good week to buy low on Brock Purdy ($7,000) after a four-interception game on national TV left a bad taste in plenty of fans’ mouths. However, that was against an elite Ravens defense, and the bulk of the 49ers offensive line was injured for much of that game. This week, he gets the anemic Commanders pass rush/passing defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA. There’s some risk that San Francisco dominates this one on the ground, but the matchup could tilt them to the air.
With the other cheap quarterback options, nobody is going to play Derek Carr ($5,500) this week. That’s despite him averaging just under 25 DraftKings points the past two weeks and taking on a pass funnel Tampa Bay defense that’s allowed more points to quarterbacks than either of his past two opponents.
It wouldn’t take much for him to outscore the two chalky cheap quarterbacks and provide a massive edge for GPP lineups.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
The risk on Purdy is based on the 49ers dominating this one on the ground, which would mean a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey ($9,600). CMC is again projecting head-and-shoulders above the rest of the position for the 49ers game against the Commanders.
The MVP candidate has more than a 100-point lead on the next running back in PPR points on the season and has been a model of consistency. He has just three games under 20 DraftKings points this season, with none of those going for less than 14.
Trying to time his blowup games is difficult, as he’s really only had two “have to have it” scores this season relative to his price tag. Still, even if he doesn’t win you a GPP, his average game still keeps you firmly in the running for the top of the leaderboard.
Given how beatable Washington is through the air (especially with downfield passing), I’d say this is a slightly below-average matchup for McCaffrey, so his chances of a monster performance are lower than usual.
Still, you’ll want some exposure to him in GPPs, and he’s a cash game must.
Value
Like at quarterback, a pair of backup players should see starting roles this week, with both Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,300) Zamir White ($5,100) stepping in for injured starters for their respective teams.
Edwards-Helaire would get the nod if Isiah Pacheco ($6,800) is unable to go this week. Pacheco returned to practice on a limited basis on Friday but is still not fully clear of the NFL’s concussion protocol. If Pacheco were to miss, CEH would be a strong play at his price tag in a game where the Chiefs are favored by a touchdown at home.
White is potentially filling in for Josh Jacobs ($6,200), who Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce has described as a game-time decision this week. Fortunately, Las Vegas is playing against the Colts in Indy — making this an early-window game — so we should have more clarity before lineups lock.
Obviously, monitoring the news around this game will be critical, as we wouldn’t have much interest in either player in a backup role. If both get the nod as starters, they’re close to cash game musts and will be extremely popular in GPPs as well. I’d hesitate to play them both in tournament lineups due to ownership considerations, but that depends heavily on this week’s injury report.
Quick Hits
The only thing keeping Kyren Williams ($8,300) from McCaffrey-esque numbers is his inconsistent usage in the passing game. Williams has drawn at least 22 opportunities in every game since returning from injury. His average score is just over 25 DraftKings points in that five-game span. I don’t see that changing in a soft matchup against the Giants, who rank 31st in yards allowed per carry this season. It’s somewhat tough to fit both him and McCaffrey in GPP lineups, which should keep ownership down on Williams and make him an excellent leverage play.
Rachaad White ($7,600) has outperformed his salary-based expectations in an absurd 10 straight games and draws a soft matchup against the Saints in an important game for the Bucs. New Orleans ranks 26th in DVOA against the run but 10th against the pass, so Tampa should lean more on the run. He’ll likely get lost in the shuffle behind Williams and McCaffrey, so should be kept in mind for GPPs.
It’s been a long time since we talked about Travis Etienne ($7,200). He was one of the best fantasy assets in the league through the first two months of the season, with five of his first eight games going for at least 20 DraftKings points. Since then, he has none. He’s taking on the league-worst rushing defense of the Panthers while his quarterback is questionable with a shoulder injury. This is as ideal of a scenario as you’ll ever see, making it a “now or never” game for Etienne.
Finally, it’s worth mentioning that both Pacheco and Jacobs are interesting leverage options if either is cleared to play this week. Since Antonio Pierce took over as head coach, the Raiders have been happy to ride Jacobs as long as the game script allows. They’re only 3.5-point underdogs against the Colts, so the odds are good it works out that way this week. Pacheco has also taken on a big workload when healthy as the Chiefs shift away from their aggressive downfield passing of old.
The real thesis on both players is that most lineups will be built with the assumption that they miss the week, meaning their ownership will be well lower than it “should” be if either one is active. That holds doubly true for Pacheco, as he’s playing in a late window game, and would require late swapping to/from him based on the news.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
Assuming he’s back to full strength, Tyreek Hill ($9,300) should return to his weekly position as the overall WR1 in all fantasy formats. After missing Week 15, he had a down (by his standards) game in Week 16, catching nine of 14 targets for “just” 99 yards.
It’s hard to discredit that performance, as it would be an above-average day for most NFL wideouts. On the other hand, it was nearly 10 points below his average score in all other games, so it’s hard to say that Hill was at full strength.
In Week 17 he sat out of practice until Thursday, where he got in a limited session. He also draws a tough matchup with the elite Ravens defense, which ranks first in DVOA and yards per pass play allowed. Coupled with his health, that makes Hill less likely for an explosion game this week.
However, he’s still the odds-on favorite to lead the position in fantasy production and certainly shouldn’t be overlooked. Since he’s projecting for uncharacteristically low ownership, I want some exposure in GPPs. I’ll probably look elsewhere in cash games, though.
Value
At the top of our Pts/Sal projection, we have the top two wideouts for the Patriots, Demario Douglas ($4,300) and DeVante Parker ($3,600). The Patriots’ passing attack is terrible regardless of who plays quarterback, but the price tags are cheap enough that we can’t ignore Douglas and Parker.
The last four games have featured Bailey Zappe ($4,800) under center for the Patriots. Both Parker and Douglas are averaging a bit over six targets per active game in that span, with Parker having a deeper average depth of target (aDOT) by about three yards.
Parker also has a lower catch rate, making him the higher upside, lower floor play. Douglas has a single-digit aDOT and a high catch rate, making him the better cash game/floor play.
Both players should see an uptick in volume this week, with the Patriots as double-digit underdogs to the Bills. They’re each worth considering depending on the contest type.
Quick Hits
All of the 49ers’ pass catchers are worth a look this week against the Commanders’ 32nd-ranked pass defense by DVOA. My favorite is Deebo Samuel ($7,700), who matches up better against the Commanders’ two-deep safety coverage than Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000). Still, it’s hard to predict which 49ers weapon goes off in any given week. I’m happy to mix and match across multiple lineups.
He’s been mostly quiet since his record-setting stretch early in the season, but AJ Brown ($8,600) might be the best bet to outscore Tyreek Hill in Week 17. The Eagles should be able to move the ball however they want against the Cardinals and should be highly motivated, with three teams all sitting at 11 wins in the NFC. I’m probably not playing Brown by himself, but he’s an excellent stacking partner with Hurts.
Cooper Kupp ($8,100) is the top leverage play in our models, thanks to sub-2% projected ownership. Other models around the industry all have him similarly unpopular. That’s a big surprise since Kupp scored at least 28 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. Repeating that isn’t the likeliest outcome here, but it’s worth a sprinkle, given his lack of popularity.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
No longer the top tight end based on name value alone, Travis Kelce ($7,000) nonetheless sits atop our projections this week. That’s due to his excellent matchup against the Bengals, who’ve allowed tight ends to exceed their salary-based expectation by 3.1 points so far in 2023.
With Kelce’s salary implying an average score of 16.3, that puts him on pace for nearly 20 points. I have my doubts — Kelce hasn’t topped that number since Week 7 — but it’s certainly well within the range of outcomes. Given the scarcity of points at tight end, a 20-point score would likely be a massive separator.
Value
Neither our projections nor most others are showing big value on any of the cheap tight ends. Dalton Schultz ($4,300) is the closest thing we have to a budget option, and he projects just slightly behind the positions leaders in Pts/Sal projection.
Schultz drew 11 targets last week against the Browns and should continue to be a focal point of the Texans’ offense. With Houston banged up at wide receiver, a few more targets should end up heading Shultz’s way.
Still, he’s a tough click this week. He’s been too inconsistent for cash games (at least at his salary) while fairly limited in ceiling. With that said, if he keeps pace with his more expensive counterparts, the salary saved could be a big difference maker this week.
Quick Hits
Trey McBride ($5,900) is a bit expensive to be a value play, doesn’t project quite well enough to be the “Stud” play — but might be the week’s best tight end option. He trails only Kelce in median and ceiling projection in our models and is more than $1,000 cheaper. He also has four 20-point games in his last eight — which is four more than Kelce.
I’m big on George Kittle ($5,600) this week for the same reasons I’m interested in Deebo Samuel. The Commanders’ deep zone defense should theoretically limit downfield routes to Brandon Aiyuk but leave plenty of space underneath for Kittle and Samuel.
I’ll have some Kittle by himself, but plenty of 49ers stacks that include the tight end.
GPP Roster Construction
There’s a handful of quarterbacks who could easily break the slate this week, all of whom are viable for tournaments. Rather than try to predict which one does, I’m going to use this space to discuss how I’d build lineups around each of them.
Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the top overall option at the position, but much of that is reliant on his running ability. That makes him a reasonable “naked” option, but single-stacks are in play too. I wouldn’t go beyond Hurts plus one of his pass catchers in big GPPs, but two (especially if one of them is running back De’Andre Swift ($6,500)) makes sense for smaller contests.
Josh Allen: Allen is similar to Hurts in that he can win tournaments without bringing teammates along if he puts up points with his legs. Buffalo has relied more on their running backs in recent games, though, especially in positive game scripts. If rostering Allen, I want at least one player from New England as a bringback. It’s hard to see Allen taking down a GPP without New England keeping this somewhat close.
Lamar Jackson: Jackson’s Ravens are taking on the Dolphins in a game with big shootout potential. Baltimore spreads the ball around to a wide group of players, but none of their primary pass catchers cost more than $5,600. I like Jackson as part of game stacks with two of his primary targets, plus a bringback (or two) from Miami.
Brock Purdy: Purdy won not one but two Milly Makers this year without being stacked with any teammates. However, that was at a much cheaper price tag, where Purdy didn’t have to score as high to pay off his salary. Now, at $7,000, I’m playing Purdy with either Kittle or Samuel in large field tournaments and both (or one of the pair with CMC) in smaller field contests. I’m willing to make the bet that it’s not Brandon Aiyuk who posts the monster score this week — not because I’m entirely confident in the read, but because we have to take a stand somewhere.
Matthew Stafford: Stafford isn’t the fifth passer projecting for over 20 points this week. That would be Patrick Mahomes ($7,500). I strongly prefer Stafford, though, with a soft matchup in a must-win game. Stafford could be played with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua ($7,900) or one of the above — or paired with Kyren Williams in smaller field tournaments.
Obviously, this isn’t an exhaustive list of the viable stacks on this 13-game slate. This is where most of my interest will lie, though. If building around other games/stacks, be sure to think about their path to a week-winning score and what impact that would have on the players around them.
Cash Games
The cash game strategy this week is heavily dependent on some injury news. We could have two cheap backs as borderline “must play” options with White and CEH, just one of them, or zero.
If both of their teams’ starters miss, the optimal build comes together fairly easily. The pair of cheap options plus CMC at running back, McBride or Schultz at tight end, and probably Denver ($3,000) at defense. From there, you have to decide between paying up at quarterback for Hurts or Allen or getting a high-end receiver and a cheap passer.
Things are a bit trickier with just one cheap running back. I’m likely to play McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, and the budget option in that case. However, that forces lineups to pay down at both quarterback and wide receiver or punt all four pass catcher positions.
Finally, if neither of the cheap backs ends up panning out, I’ll probably look to build four wide-receiver lineups while taking shots on guys like Rashid Shaheed ($4,600) and Devante Parker with two of those spots. We’d just need one of the two “boom or bust” players to hit to pay off both their salaries.
It’s also possible that we won’t get news on the Chiefs’ running back situation until after lock. In that case, make sure you have a late swap plan from (or to) Edwards-Helaire. That might involve leaving extra salary if need be or being willing to pivot to other positions. Either way, don’t play CEH lineups without having a plan in case Pacheco is ruled in — unless we get firm news before Sunday.
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL content.
