On tap for Thursday is an eight-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Coby White vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
This is a great time to buy low on White. The guard has scored under 40 DraftKings points in four straight starts but is in a perfect situation Thursday to put up huge numbers. First off, White gets arguably the best matchup hosting the Pacers, who lead the league in pace and rank 28th in defensive efficiency. This game’s total is the highest on the slate (241 points) and it presents the smallest spread of the night as well (IND -1.5), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Furthermore, the Bulls boast their highest implied team total of the season (120 points) despite being without Zach LaVine (foot) and Nikola Vucevic (groin).
With those two starters missing, White should handle a huge role in this gorgeous matchup. In all the minutes he has played with LaVine and Vucevic off the court this season, White’s usage has risen a team-high 4.6 percentage points to 26.6%, and he has produced 1.2 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. White has a ceiling near 60 fantasy points in FantasyLabs’ models and could get overlooked due to his recent subpar performances.
Top Value: Scoot Henderson vs. San Antonio Spurs – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Deandre Ayton (knee) and Shaedon Sharpe (adductor) will miss their second game in a row tonight, and with these two starters absent Tuesday, Henderson had a double-double worth 36.25 DraftKings points across 28 minutes in the blowout win over the Kings. The rookie finished a +21 in the box score and now averages 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Ayton and Henderson off the floor, which is attributed to a 3.3 percentage point boost to his usage rate.
After recording the second double-double of his career vs. the Kings on Tuesday, Henderson finds himself in an even better spot Thursday vs. the Spurs, who rank third in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. This contest’s total is the third-highest on the slate (235 points), and the Blazers carry their second highest implied team total of the season (119.5 points). Given he comes off the bench and has had a disappointing rookie season, Henderson should come with little ownership tonight and is a terrific sleeper for GPPs.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Terry Rozier at Los Angeles Lakers – $8,300 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Rozier has merit on both sites but is a no-brainer at only $8,300 on DraftKings. In addition to LaMelo Ball (ankle) remaining out, Gordon Hayward (calf) will miss tonight’s contest. With these two starters off the court this season, Rozier’s usage and assist rates increase 3.2 and 10.3 percentage points respectively, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM for the guard. The Lakers are a stout defense, ranking seventh in efficiency, but they also play at the seventh-fastest pace, which is a huge upgrade for this Hornets’ team that ranks 19th in that stat.
Rozier should thrive tonight and is a threat for over 50 fantasy points.
Top Value: Derrick White vs. Detroit Pistons – $7,100 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
With FantasyLabs projecting White for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, the guard is a must-have for GPPs. White has had a magnificent season and should flourish with Jaylen Brown (back) out tonight. The Celtics carry the highest-implied team total on the slate (125 points) against this Pistons’ defense that ranks 26th in efficiency. In the only other game Brown has missed this season, White finished with 41.25 DraftKings points vs. a 76ers’ defense that ranks third in efficiency. Overall, with Brown off the court this season, White’s usage jumps 5.6 percentage points and he supplies 1.4 DraftKings PPM, which impressively ties Jayson Tatum (below) for the most on the Celtics in this situation.
White has erupted for over 45 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts even with Brown active, and he should produce a huge fantasy score in the All-Star’s absence this evening.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,300 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Hosting the Pacers and with Vucevic and LaVine sidelined, DeRozan is an easy choice tonight. As noted above, the Bulls carry their highest implied team total of the season (120 points) against this fast Indiana squad. With both Vucevic and LaVine off the floor, DeRozan’s usage and assist rates rise 4.1 and 3.4 percentage points respectively, and he scores 1.2 DraftKings PPM.
With everything in his favor tonight, DeRozan should score no fewer than 40 fantasy points.
Top Value: Matisse Thybulle vs. San Antonio Spurs – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
With Ayton and Sharpe out Tuesday, Thybulle was one of the primary beneficiaries for the Blazers, finishing with 25.5 DraftKings points across 26 minutes in the win over the Kings. The wing closed the game with the starters and should find himself in the 25-30 minute range again tonight for this juicy matchup vs. the Spurs, who rank third in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency.
Thybulle’s elite defense and ability to rack up steals and blocks always gives him a solid ceiling when he plays decent minutes. The veteran is averaging 21.2 DraftKings PPG when he has logged at least 25 minutes this season (11 games). He needs to be on your radar at these low price points.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Detroit Pistons – $9,900 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
With Brown inactive tonight, the door is open for Tatum to destroy the lowly Pistons. This Detroit team that has lost 27 in a row ranks 26th in defensive efficiency this season. Hosting them, Boston boasts the highest-implied team total on the slate (125 points).
With Brown off the floor this season, Tatum’s usage has been at 35.9%, which is a team-high 6.1 percentage point increase from his season average. The expanded usage rate translates into 1.4 DraftKings PPM for Tatum. In the 14 starts he has made without Brown over the last two seasons, Tatum is contributing 51.9 DraftKings PPG. At less than $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, the forward is one of the most lucrative values available Thursday.
Top Value: Jabari Walker vs. San Antonio Spurs – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Walker is another cheap Blazer to consider with Ayton and Sharpe sidelined. With these two inactive Tuesday, Walker logged 22.2 minutes off the bench vs. the Kings, en route to 26.5 DraftKings points. The big man’s fantasy output increases to 1.1 DraftKings PPM with both Ayton and Sharpe off the floor, and Walker is amassing 25.9 DraftKings PPG for the five full games Ayton has missed this season.
In this beautiful matchup vs. the Spurs, Walker is rating as one of the best cheap power forward options on the slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Charlotte Hornets – $10,000 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
Davis (ankle) carries a questionable tag tonight, but he just played through this same designation for the same reason Monday and went off for 65.75 DraftKings against a stout Celtics defense. The Kentucky product has routinely played through questionable tags this season, and it would be surprising if he didn’t suit up this evening. The questionable designation and this game being the final of the night should translate to low ownership for Davis, making him one of the best GPP plays on the board.
Davis has been dominant, with 57 DraftKings PPG in his last five and should feast against this Hornets team that has been very susceptible to opposing big men. On top of ranking second to last in defensive efficiency, Charlotte is giving up the ninth most rebounds and sixth most points in the paint. The Lakers sport the fifth-largest implied team total on the slate tonight (119.75 points), and when playing behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this season, Davis has surpassed 50 DraftKings points at an eye-popping 86% clip (13 of 15 starts), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Andre Drummond vs. Indiana Pacers – $7,500 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
While better suited for GPPs on FanDuel, Drummond is the best value on DraftKings tonight at $7,500. The veteran got the spot start Tuesday with Vucevic inactive for the first time this season and had a vintage performance, posting a 24-point and 25-rebound double-double worth a whopping 67.25 DraftKings points across 38.3 minutes in the win over the Hawks. Drummond will remain the starter tonight, and this is an even better spot than Atlanta, with the Pacers allowing the most points in the paint in the NBA on top of their league-high pace and their defensive issues.
Drummond is collecting an elite 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season. He has 42.2 DraftKings PPG in the last 10 occasions in which he has logged a minimum of 25 minutes. He should tally another huge double-double in this perfect spot.
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