Wednesday night presents a six-game slate for DFS players. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson at Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Brunson just scored over 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts against the Bucks and is in a great spot to reach this feat again tonight, facing a Thunder club that is playing their second game in two nights and ranks sixth in pace. This is a huge pace increase for this Knicks squad that ranks 27th in pace, and this game’s total is the second highest on the slate (239.5 points), which is the second-largest total New York has played in this season. Furthermore, this tilt should be competitive throughout, with Oklahoma City only favored by three points, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Mitchell Robinson (ankle) remains out for the Knicks, and with the center off the court this season, Brunson is leading New York with a 29.5% usage rate and 1.3 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. The guard has been excellent in totals of at least 230 points this season, amassing 51.2 DraftKings PPG (five games), and is a terrific high-end value at less than $9K on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: De’Anthony Melton at Orlando Magic – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
While the Magic are a tough matchup, ranking third in defensive efficiency, Melton is still a viable target tonight with Joel Embiid (ankle) sidelined. In another tough matchup vs. the Heat on Monday – who rank 28th in pace – Melton had no issues and posted 42.25 DraftKings points with Embiid inactive. Melton is now generating 35.75 DraftKings PPG with Embiid out this season and has seen his usage rise 6.9 percentage points in those four games.
Melton clearly is mispriced for life without Embiid and should be able to out-produce his salaries tonight.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Houston Rockets – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
The Suns have lost three in a row and six of their last eight and are in desperate need of a win tonight. The matchup is less than ideal, with Houston ranking second in defensive efficiency, but Houston is on the second night of a back-to-back, and Booker should step up with his team’s back against the wall, especially with Bradley Beal (ankle) still sidelined.
Phoenix is favored by two points tonight, and for the five instances Booker has played in a spread under three points this season, the Kentucky product has responded with 50.8 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Kelly Oubre Jr. at Orlando Magic – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Just like Melton, Oubre Jr. has appeal with Embiid out tonight despite this difficult matchup vs. the Magic. Making his first start sans Embiid on Monday, Oubre Jr. went off for a season-high 44.75 DraftKings points across 39.4 minutes in a slow matchup vs. Miami. That minute number also marks a season-high for the veteran and Oubre Jr. should continue to see huge playing time on Wednesday, with Nicholas Batum (hamstring) also remaining out in addition to Embiid.
Oubre Jr. produces 1.0 DraftKings PPM with these two players off the court this season and is a rating as a strong value at these sub $6K salaries.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes at Washington Wizards – $8,700 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Barnes brings a top-five ceiling on the slate in FantasyLabs models and is an awesome spend tonight, especially at only $8,700 on DraftKings. At this price point, the 22-year-old is rating as the No.1 value on DraftKings in FantasyLabs models.
Barnes has topped 50 DraftKings points in six of his last 10 starts and is leading the Raptors with 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season due to career-highs in usage (24.8%) and assist rate (25%). The Wizards are an incredible matchup for Barnes, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency and second in pace, and as an added bonus, Washington is on the second leg of a back-to-back.
The Raptors carry their highest implied team total of the season in this spot (122.75 points), and for the five instances he has played behind an implied team total of at least 118 points this season, Barnes has flourished with 52.3 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Khris Middleton at Brooklyn Nets – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
After being limited for most of the season, Middleton has seen over 30 minutes in back-to-back games, resulting in 35.9 DraftKings PPG for the forward. Middleton’s salaries don’t reflect him returning to a full-time role and this is a plus spot for him. The Nets rank 21st in defensive efficiency, are on the second leg of a back-to-back, and this contest’s total is the highest on the slate (240.5 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Middleton is one of the better forward values available tonight that would enter must-play territory if Giannis Antetokounmpo (questionable, injury management) was inactive. With the superstar off the court this season, Middleton has supplied 1.3 DraftKings PPM, with a 35.2% usage rate, which is a colossal 10.6 percentage point increase from his season average, via the On/Off Tool.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Randle is underpriced for the upside he brings in this up-tempo matchup vs. the Thunder. Oklahoma City ranks sixth in pace compared to this Knicks team that ranks fourth-to-last in the category, and as noted above, this game’s 239.5-point total is the second-largest New York has competed in this season. Also, just like Brunson, Randle benefits with Robinson out, with the former generating 1.25 DraftKings PPM with Robinson off the court this season.
The Knicks boast an implied team total of 118.5 points in this up-tempo setting vs. the Thunder, and Randle is averaging 50.75 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this season (nine games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Derrick Jones Jr. vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Jones Jr. was a huge part of the Mavs’ road win over the Suns on Christmas Day, recording 31.75 DraftKings points across 35.2 minutes with a 24.8% usage rate. The veteran has now recorded at least 29 DraftKings points in three of his last six starts, with those three quiet performances all coming in blowouts of at least 25 points that severely limited Jones Jr.’s playing time.
With the Mavs only favored by 3.5 points tonight vs. the Cavs, this game should stay competitive from start to finish, and Jones Jr. should see right around 35 minutes of work, giving him a strong chance to return 5x value at these current salaries. For the nine times he has cracked the 30-minute mark this season, Jones Jr. is amassing 25.4 DraftKings PPG, including three outings over 30 DraftKings points.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun vs. Phoenix Suns – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
Sengun has been a monster, topping 60 DraftKings points in two straight and hosting a Suns team that ranks as the 10th worst defense in the league over their last three.
The center leads the Rockets with a 27.8% usage rate and 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season, and Houston is a two-point underdog against Phoenix tonight, which bodes well for Sengun. The big man is collecting 50 DraftKings PPG in his last 10 starts as an underdog and is an outstanding, expensive player to target tonight.
Top Value: Dereck Lively vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
After missing four in a row with a sprained ankle, Lively posted a double-double worth 35 DraftKings in Monday’s win over the Suns. The center has now posted at least 27 DraftKings points in six of his last eight starts, including a season-best 56.5 DraftKings points vs. the Thunder.
Excluding when he sprained his ankle and exited the game after only six minutes, Lively has logged over 30 minutes in four consecutive games, and the rookie should continue to see big minutes tonight against this big Cavs team that likes to have a natural center on the floor at all times.
Particularly at only $5,500 on DraftKings, Lively is standing out as a compelling value play that likely won’t be popular.
