Thursday Night gives us a Joe Flacco revenge game, as Flacco and the Browns host the Jets. The Browns are listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 34.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s comes included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
If you read my position articles last week, you know that I was all over Amari Cooper, and he didn’t let me down. He absolutely exploded against Houston, catching 11 of 15 targets for 265 yards and two touchdowns, posting a monstrous 54.5 DraftKings points.
The Browns moving to Joe Flacco has worked wonders for the offense, with last week being a total offensive explosion. Cooper is questionable with a heel injury but is going against a Jets secondary that has allowed the fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers.
I’m personally a little worried about Cooper in this spot despite his impressive 29% target rate per route run with Flacco under center. I’m worried about the matchup and his heel injury. He’s the most expensive player on the slate, and I’m not expecting any type of ownership discount, leading me likely to avoid Cooper if I’m running just one lineup tonight.
I prefer Flacco to Cooper, as the Jets have been more susceptible to tight ends and running backs through the air, so rostering Flacco allows you to harness the Browns’ passing game if it’s spread out. New York has allowed the fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and they know Flacco well after having him in the building for a while.
Breece Hall leads the way for New York after an eruption last week, taking 20 carries for 95 yards and two touchdowns while catching 12 of 16 targets for 96 yards. He totaled 43.1 DraftKings points while seeing an enormous 36 opportunities.
The matchup is tough, with Cleveland allowing the ninth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing backs and limiting their production out of the backfield as well. It’s hard to deny Hall’s volume though, as he’s the engine of this offense.
Garrett Wilson is another target monster on the Jets’ offense, catching nine of 15 targets for 76 yards last week. He’s seen double-digit targets in three of the past five games. The Browns have faced the fourth-highest percentage of targets to perimeter receivers, where Wilson runs over two-thirds of his routes.
Trevor Siemian had impressively few DraftKings points last week despite 49 pass attempts. He averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt, throwing one touchdown and one interception. Cleveland has the second-highest pressure rate in the league while allowing the fourth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing passers.
He has a cheap-ish price tag which makes him somewhat appealing, but he’s not a priority in this tough matchup.
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NFL DFS Mid-Range Picks
Jerome Ford has surpassed Kareem Hunt as the RB1 in Cleveland, but both backs are still heavily involved. Ford saw 16 touches last week compared to nine for Ford, but they had a similar snap share.
The Jets have faced a bevy of rush attempts this year due to game script, so we likely see a heavy dose of both backs. New York has allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to opposing backs on the year. Both Hunt and Ford interest me, as Ford has a stronger role in the passing game, while Hunt handles most of the short-yardage and goal-line carries.
David Njoku continues to perform with Flacco under center, as he caught six of nine targets for 44 yards and a touchdown last week. He has four touchdowns in the past three weeks, while averaging an impressive 16.3 DraftKings points per game with the touchdowns removed.
New York has allowed a lot of volume to tight ends, as they force targets away from receivers.
Elijah Moore has a stranglehold on the WR2 spot in Cleveland, running a route on over 80% of the dropbacks. He saw strong volume when Flacco first took over, but he has just seven targets and four catches over the past two weeks. The matchup isn’t necessarily easy in the slot, but it’s easier than on the outside, giving some appeal to Moore. He’s too expensive for my liking in optimal formats but is intriguing in tournaments.
The Browns have allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points per game to tight ends, but Tyler Conklin sees strong volume for his price tag. He may not be efficient, but nine, six, seven, and seven targets over the past four games gives me reason for optimism.
Jason Brownlee ran a route on 88% of dropbacks last week, while Xavier Gipson ran a route on 71% of dropbacks and operated mostly from the slot. I prefer Gipson to Brownlee, but neither are priorities in the spot.
Cedric Tillman has run a route on over 80% of the dropbacks recently and is a strong salary saver despite the matchup. He has operated as a deep-threat consistently, as he can pay off his tag with one catch.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Israel Abanikanda ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Breece Hall handled a monster workload last week, while Abanikanda has worked in a little bit and would be the guy to see work if New York decided to ease up on Hall.
- David Bell ($1,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Bell played on 24% of dropbacks last week and saw two targets. There’s not much here, but he’s a cheap option who will likely be unowned.
