With two games being played on Saturday this week, the Sunday main slate features nine games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 16.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Justin Fields ($7,100) + DJ Moore ($6,900) + Trey McBride ($5,700)
All three of these players are going to be decently popular this week, but combining all three of them in the same lineup as a game stack is a strategy very few should use.
Starting with Fields, the quarterback should have a big rebound performance after being held in check by a stout Browns’ defense last week. Cleveland is giving up the second-fewest yards per pass attempt this season (5.4), while Fields’ opponent for this Sunday in the Cardinals is allowing the third most (7.2).
Furthermore, Arizona is giving up the third most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks (26), and they have yielded four rushing touchdowns to the position, which is great news for a dual-threat quarterback like Fields, who ranks second only to Jalen Hurts in carries per game among quarterbacks with 9.7 per start.
Fields ranks sixth among quarterbacks in DraftKings points per dropback (0.54) and has scored at least 24 DraftKings points in four of his last six starts, excluding when he got hurt in Week 6.
When Fields has been healthy this season, Moore has been an immense fantasy asset and the obvious player to pair with Fields. In the 10 games Moore has played with Fields getting the start at quarterback, Moore has been targeted on 23% of his routes, including six red zone targets and 23 targets over 20 yards. This equates to 2.3 targets over 20 yards per game, which would rank third in the league if it was Moore’s average for the season. The wideout is amassing 21.3 DraftKings PPG with Fields starting this season and had topped 20 DraftKings points in three straight games before facing an elite Browns’ defense last week.
Lastly, McBride is the best bring-back option for Fields’ stacks and should excel in this plus spot. While the Bears have improved defensively after an ugly start to the season, they are still susceptible to tight ends, allowing a tight end to find the endzone in two of their last three games. For the season, Chicago is surrendering the fourth most catches (83) and fifth most touchdowns to tight ends (6).
Since becoming the Cardinals’ starting tight end in Week 8 after Zach Ertz (quad) was placed on IR, McBride has seen incredible usage, leading the team with a 28% target share, including eight red zone targets in seven games. To put in perspective how large that target share is, the tight end ranks eighth in the league in target share over this time, regardless of position. McBride has gone over 20 DraftKings in four of these seven starts and absolutely has a chance to reach this feat against the Bears.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Aaron Jones ($6,400)
Jones is in a tremendous spot this weekend and is slated to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings, according to THE BLITZ projections. The back is going against the Panthers, who are giving up the most rushing touchdowns to running backs (18). In fact, Carolina has allowed 22 total touchdowns to running backs, which is the most in the league by three touchdowns. Overall, 51% of the touchdowns scored against the Panthers this season have been via running backs. Jones returned from a three-game absence last week and logged 17 touches and played 48% of the snaps vs. the Bucs.
Given the back came out of this game without getting hurt, Jones should see an even larger workload this weekend. This season, the 29-year-old is averaging an efficient 0.39 DraftKings points per touch and is supplying 14.9 DraftKings PPG for the five occasions he has logged at least 40% of his team’s snaps. The Packers are five-point favorites over the Panthers this Sunday, and Jones boasts a career average of 16.7 DraftKings PPG when playing as a favorite (66 games), via the Trends Tool.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Curtis Samuel ($4,800)
Samuel’s role has grown as the season winds down. Over the last three weeks, the veteran has been targeted on 30% of his routes, while running a route on 72% of his team’s dropbacks. Samuel has seen 26 targets during this time – which ties Terry McLaurin for the most on the Commanders – including six red zone targets. Samuel is producing 17.8 DraftKings PPG during this three-game stretch despite facing strong defenses in the Dolphins and Cowboys in two of these games, both of which rank top-10 in fewest yards per pass allowed.
The wideout faces another tough defense in the Jets this Sunday – who rank third in fewest yards per pass allowed – but is simply too cheap for the type of usage he has seen recently. Samuel is an excellent value at this price tag and is expected to be only around 6% owned on DraftKings, via THE BLITZ projections.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Cade Otton ($3,300)
If paying down at tight end this Sunday, Otton is the best option. The tight end ranks third on the Bucs in target share this season (12.6%) while running a route on 88% of his team’s dropbacks. Otton has obtained 10 red zone targets in 14 games this season and meets a Jags’ defense this weekend that is yielding the fifth most touchdowns to tight ends this season (6). Additionally, Jacksonville is giving up the fourth most yards to the position (848).
The Bucs carry a solid implied team total of 21.75 points – which is their second largest of the season – and Otton is a solid bet to reach double-digit DraftKings points in this stellar matchup.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
