On the menu for Wednesday is a 10-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $12,200 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel
Doncic is the No.1 option on the slate tonight. The Clippers rank seventh in defensive efficiency, but the guard’s current role with the Mavs shorthanded, combined with him competing on his home floor trump any concerns we should have about this matchup.
Kyrie Irving (foot) and Josh Green (elbow) remain out, and in the six starts Doncic has made without these two guards this season, the superstar has dominated his opponents for a whopping 72.8 DraftKings PPG, via the On/Off Tool. In these contests, Doncic has scored 1.8 DraftKings PPM, mostly thanks to his assist rate jumping 8.5 percentage points.
Tonight’s game total is the second highest on the slate (238 points), and Doncic has nearly been 10.0 DraftKings PPG better at home than when on the road this season. The Slovenian’s ceiling is easily the highest on slate in FantasyLabs models, and having some shares of Doncic is a necessity tonight.
Top Value: Immanuel Quickley at Brooklyn Nets – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
As of Wednesday morning, this slate lacks appealing cheap guard options, with Quickley being one of the only viable options under $6K. With Mitchell Robinson (foot) sidelined Monday, Quickley benefited and finished with 29.75 DraftKings points in 28.5 minutes off the bench vs. the Lakers. With Robinson out, the Knicks tend to play more small ball lineups and as we saw Monday, Quickley usually ends up closing the game with the starters with the center inactive.
The Kentucky product is providing 24 DraftKings PPG in the 25 games he has played with Robinson out over the last two seasons and has similar upside to what we saw from him Monday.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Utah Jazz – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Both Darius Garland (jaw) and Evan Mobley (knee) remain out tonight, making Mitchell a worthy spend. In these past two games with Garland and Mobley inactive, Mitchell has led the Cavs with 53.5 DraftKings PPG. Overall, with those two starters off the floor this season, Mitchell is amassing 1.33 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
The Jazz rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and Mitchell should expose this soft defense for his third straight performance of over 50 fantasy points.
Update: Mitchell was a late addition to the injury report and is now questionable with an illness. This news may depress his ownership if he plays, but if he is out, Caris LeVert will likely see a huge role and have to be considered. With Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley off the floor this season, LeVert’s assist rate has increased by 6.1 percentage points, and in the contest he has played without Mitchell and Garland this season, LeVert started and erupted for a 52.25 DraftKings points in 44 minutes vs. the Pacers, both of which are far and away season highs for the wing.
Top Value: Talen Horton-Tucker at Cleveland Cavaliers – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Opposite of Mitchell, Horton-Tucker is a compelling GPP target if he remains a starter tonight. Coming off a 21-point loss to the Kings, the Jazz switched up their starting five this past Monday, with Horton-Tucker and Walker Kessler joining the first unit. Horton-Tucker took full advantage of the promotion, leading Utah with 45.75 DraftKings points across 31.2 minutes in a convincing 17-point win over a solid Nets team. Jordan Clarkson (thigh) and Keyonte George (foot) missed this game and will remain out tonight, and with these two guards off the court this season, Horton-Tucker has commanded a 25.2% usage rate and scored 1.1 DraftKings PPM.
It’s hard to imagine the veteran doesn’t start again after being a key contributor in Monday’s win. Assuming he remains in the starting five, Horton-Tucker should be able to exceed 5x value against this Cavs’ team that is missing their best defender in Mobley.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard at Dallas Mavericks – $8,700 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
Leonard is competing in the second-highest total on the slate (238 points) vs. a Dallas squad that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency. He has been awesome lately, recording at least 44 DraftKings points in five of his last six starts. The two-time NBA Finals MVP is a strong target to attack from one of the best environments of the night, which would become an even better option if Paul George (questionable, illness) ends up sitting.
Via the On/Off Tool, Leonard’s usage rises 2.1 percentage points to 28.4%, with George off the court this season. Due note that George missed the shootaround this morning, which certainly doesn’t bode well for his chances of suiting up.
Top Value: Derrick Jones Jr. vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Ignore Jones Jr.’s up-and-down game log and attack the veteran in this strong game setting vs. the Clippers. On top of this tilt presenting the second-highest total on the slate (238 points), the spread is very tight, with Los Angeles only favored by 3.5 points, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. With the Mavs depleted as of late, Jones Jr. has received 28.5 minutes per game in his last nine, which has helped him score at least 24 DraftKings points in six of these contests. The wing has gone over 30 DraftKings points three times during this stretch and is shooting a career-best 36% from beyond the arc this season.
Derrick Lively (ankle) being out in addition to Irving and Green further solidifies a hefty role for Jones Jr. tonight, and he should come with low ownership after a quiet start Monday.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Brooklyn Nets – $8,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Randle remains underpriced for life without Robinson. With a 1.4 percentage point increase to his usage rate, Randle leads the Knicks with 1.3 DraftKings PPM with Robinson off the floor this season, and in these past five sans the center, Randle is producing 46.8 DraftKings PPG, including three efforts over 50 DraftKings points.
This matchup with the Nets carries a one-point spread and the fifth-largest total on the board (232.5 points). In this terrific setting, Randle shouldn’t be priced under $9K and is without question one of the best high-end values available Wednesday.
Top Value: Deandre Hunter at Houston Rockets – $6,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
If Bogdan Bogdanovic (questionable, ankle) is forced to miss another game, Hunter will have merit at these price points. Bogdanovic has received a 22% usage rate this season, and with him out Monday, Hunter saw a season-high 27.6% usage rate and posted 36 DraftKings points across 29 minutes vs. the Pistons.
This matchup with Houston sports the fourth-highest total on the slate (234 points), and Hunter will be a sneaky GPP target that has 40 fantasy-point upside if Atlanta continues to be without Bogdanovic.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $11,600 DraftKings, $12,900 FanDuel
While Rudy Gobert has been excellent this season and is the frontrunner for DPOY, Embiid should continue to put up massive numbers against him tonight. Embiid has been making a serious case that he should be named the MVP for the second year in a row recently, generating 69.7 DraftKings PPG in his last 10 starts, including back-to-back efforts over 70 DraftKings points coming into tonight. The center has scored at least 32 points in three of his past four head-to-head matchups with Gobert and enters tonight’s tilt as the NBA’s leader in usage rate (38.7%), which is a career-high for Embiid.
The 76ers are 3.5-point favorites in Philadelphia tonight, and when playing as a home favorite this season, Embiid has been a monster with 69 DraftKings PPG (10 games), via the Trends Tool. While Doncic is a slightly better option, Embiid isn’t far behind and is a mouthwatering GPP play, with the general public scared of this matchup with the Wolves. Via FantasyLabs projections, Embiid is expected to be only around 1% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Walker Kessler at Cleveland Cavaliers – $6,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
While overpriced on FanDuel, Kessler needs to be rostered at only $6,200 DraftKings, assuming he remains a starter. As mentioned above, Kessler moved into the Jazz’s starting five Monday and was outstanding, tallying 42.5 DraftKings points in 32 minutes vs. the Nets. The center has now exceeded 40 DraftKings points in each of the last four games he has started in, and it makes total sense for him to start again tonight, with Omer Yurtseven (illness) unavailable for Utah and the Cavs’ being a spot that requires Kessler’s size to match up with Jarrett Allen.
Kessler could easily replicate his showing from Monday if he starts again tonight and likely will get overlooked for this huge slate.
