Christmas weekend in the NFL brings a nice Week 16 schedule with games throughout Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. There are nine games on the main DFS slate, with six games kicking off at 1:00 p.m. ET and three more getting underway in the later window.
The playoff races are heating up with just three weeks left in the regular season. With 18 teams in action, there are many ways to consider constructing your Week 16 NFL DFS squad. The highest over/under on the slate is in the late game between the Cowboys and the Dolphins, who have been some of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL this season. The Vikings-Lions and Falcons-Colts matchups are next up after that potentially high-scoring matchup. The Dolphins have the highest implied team total on the board, followed by the Lions and Cowboys.
As you start your prep for Sunday’s slate, let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 16, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Nick Mullens ($5,300) Minnesota Vikings (+3) vs. Detroit Lions (47 total)
The Vikings couldn’t hold on last Saturday against the Bengals, but they’re still in the middle of the Wild Card race at 7-7. Nick Mullens played well in that game and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback in both the FantasyLabs projection and THE BLITZ projections for this week. He also has the most Pts/Sal at the position in each of those projections.
Making his first start of the season, Mullens completed 26 of 33 passes for 303 yards and two touchdowns in Cincinnati last Saturday. He added 10 rushing yards on six carries. Coach Kevin O’Connell had great things to say about Mullens’ performance and said he’ll get another chance to start this week. As good as Mullens’ day was, it could have been even better if it hadn’t been for two interceptions. One of those came on the goal line, and the other was on the Bengals’ 30-yard line as the team was potentially setting up for another score.
The Lions have been up-and-down the last few weeks but looked strong last Saturday against the Broncos. They still rank in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, though. They have allowed multiple quarterback touchdowns in each of the last two weeks and have given up 26 total quarterback touchdowns in 14 games, along with an average of 243.6 passing yards per game.
Mullens has great pass-catching options to work with and seems to have a strong connection with rookie standout Jordan Addison in addition to stars T.J. Hockenson and Justin Jefferson. With all those options in an important game this Sunday, look for Mullens to be a strong value play. You also don’t have to worry about any weather concerns if you roll with Mullens since he’ll be playing indoors at home in Minneapolis.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Drake London ($5,100) Atlanta Falcons (-1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (44.5 total)
In an evenly-blended three-way blend of the FantasyLabs projections, THE BLITZ projections, and Chris Raybon’s projections, Drake London has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all wide receivers on Sunday’s main slate. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in THE BLITZ projections. He is also tied with Zay Jones (hamstring) for the highest Pts/Sal in the blended projections, just ahead of CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Lockett, and Amari Cooper.
London has been very volatile this season, partly due to inconsistent quarterback play. Last week, in the rainstorm against the Panthers, he only managed two catches for 24 yards, and three weeks ago, he only had one catch on the road against the Jets. While that’s the bad news, the good news is that he has been excellent in his last two home games in the protection of the dome. He hauled in 10 of 11 targets for 172 yards against the Bucs in Week 14 and 5 of 7 targets for 91 yards at home against the Saints.
The Falcons are making the move back to Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, which should help get London more chances. He started in Week 9 against the Vikings, but London missed that game with a groin injury. If Heinicke gets the offense going in this good matchup against the Colts, he’ll likely be relying heavily on London as his top receiver option. The Colts have allowed four wide receiver touchdowns in the last four weeks, and opposing receivers have produced over 100 yards in each of those contests with an average of 124.75 yards per week.
London has shown a high ceiling but also a low floor. Since he’s pretty affordable at barely over $5,000, he’s worth a look due to his upside this week.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Chuba Hubbard ($5,700) Carolina Panthers (+4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (36.5 total)
For the second week in a row, Chuba Hubbard is the top value play in our early look at the slate. Hubbard continues to take on a larger workload for the Panthers and has been a solid producer over the last few weeks. This week, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on Sunday’s slate in the three-way blended projections.
Coming into the year, Hubbard was behind Miles Sanders, but as the season has gone on, Hubbard has become the featured running back. He has taken the extra work and exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games with an Average Plus/Minus of +6.3 DraftKings points.
Interim head coach Chris Tabor has been especially committed to leaning on Hubbard, giving him 22+ carries in three straight weeks. Against the Falcons in the rain last week, Hubbard played 73% of snaps and totaled 103 scrimmage yards on 22 carries and two catches.
This week, Hubbard and the Panthers host the Packers. Hubbard has a +1.1 Opponents Plus/Minus in the matchup since the Packers have allowed five running back touchdowns in the last four weeks. In those four weeks, opposing running backs have averaged 137.5 scrimmage yards.
As the Panthers look to build on their momentum from last week and get their first winning streak of the season, Hubbard should be in for a busy week, making him a value with relatively low risk and a high ceiling.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
David Njoku ($5,300) Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans (40.5 total)
David Njoku and Trey McBride stand out again this week as the two best values at tight end. Both options have been excellent over the last few weeks as value plays, but this week, I’m giving a slight edge to Njoku since he’s $400 cheaper and in a good matchup against the Texans. Both are excellent plays and match six Pro Trends this week tied for the most of all tight ends on the slate.
Njoku’s season has really taken off since the Browns went to Joe Flacco at quarterback. With Flacco at quarterback the last two weeks, Njoku has totaled 16 catches on a massive 22 targets while scoring three touchdowns and racking up 195 yards. Last week, he caught 10-of-14 targets while the Browns rallied to beat the Bears.
The Browns have managed to stay in the playoff race despite their quarterback injuries, and Njoku has locked himself in as a key part of the offense. He should stay heavily involved this week in a good matchup against the Texans. Opposing tight ends have scored four touchdowns against Houston this season while averaging 62.5 receiving yards per game.
Njoku and McBride are both excellent options this week, and using your utility spot to carry an extra tight end is a strategy worth considering.
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