Thursday Night gives us a pivotal game in the NFC playoff race between the Rams and Saints. The Rams are listed as 4-point home favorites, while the total sits at 46 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
It’s been a while since we’ve had the Rams on a showdown slate, as this is their second one of the year. They’ve exceeded expectations on the year, with many players stepping up out of seemingly nowhere.
Kyren Williams has taken a stranglehold on the backfield out of nowhere, while Puka Nacua has over 1,100 yards and is on pace for over 100 catches as a fifth-round rookie.
I’ve been banging the drum about Williams for the past few main slates, as his workload is rivaled by few in the league. He’s handled 22, 26, 29, and 34 opportunities over the past four games. That volume will be necessary this week, as New Orleans has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher, and has allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs.
Williams is one of the top options on the slate despite the tough matchup, as he’ll see a boatload of volume as a home favorite.
Despite Nacua’s emergence, Cooper Kupp remains the alpha receiver in Los Angeles in my opinion. He had a lull in the middle of the season that was mainly caused by injuries. He’s seen eight, 10, and eight targets over the past three games, finding the end zone in all three.
New Orleans has allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, making it a tough matchup for Kupp and Nacua.
New Orleans has allowed the third-highest rate of wide receiver receptions to come from the slot, which bodes well for Kupp, as he plays over 60% of his snaps from the slot. Kupp also benefits from New Orleans’ heavy use of man coverage. He owns a 33% target rate per route run against man coverage compared to just 21% against zone.
Marshon Lattimore is set to miss this game, which bodes well for Nacua, as he plays nearly 70% of his snaps on the perimeter. Nacua has eight, eight, and seven targets over the past three weeks, hauling in five catches in back-to-back games.
I think many will opt for the savings with Nacua over Kupp, so I prefer the veteran with his high price tag.
Alvin Kamara leads the way on the New Orleans side, also boasting a strong workload as the engine of New Orleans’ offense. He has at least five targets in all but one game this season, with seven or more targets in five different games.
He’s also seeing about 15 or so carries on the ground, which are certainly valuable.
This could be a game with outsized receiving volume for Kamara as a road underdog. He’s averaged over eight receptions per game in New Orleans’ losses, and I’m expecting the Rams to come out victorious on Thursday.
After throwing just nine touchdowns through the first 11 weeks, Matthew Stafford has thrown 12 touchdowns over Los Angeles’ last four games. He’s topped 20 DraftKings points in three of the four contests, as the Rams’ offense has been humming as of late.
New Orleans has allowed the sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, making this an unlikely spot for Stafford to find a ceiling.
Derek Carr rounds out the stud section, coming off his first three-touchdown game of the season. He completed over 80% of his passes as New Orleans cruised to a 24-6 victory over the Giants. The Rams have allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, setting up Carr with avenues to success.
He’s not a priority for me, but his cheap tag makes him interesting as a quarterback on a showdown slate.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Chris Olave has been dealing with an ankle injury but doesn’t carry an injury designation for Thursday’s game. We last saw him in Week 14, catching four of five targets for 28 yards and a touchdown against Carolina.
The matchup is middling, as Los Angeles has allowed the 14th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers. Olave has double-digit DraftKings points in five straight games, with eight or more targets in four of five. New Orleans could be forced into more passing situations as road underdogs, giving Olave upside for a double-digit target game.
Rashid Shaheed‘s price was likely made with the expectation of Olave missing another game. With Olave back, it’s hard to get excited about Shaheed at this price, with single-digit DraftKings point performances in four straight games and in eight of his last 10.
Taysom Hill saw just two touches last week, and his outlook remains the same. I’m not that interested in him, as he’s one of the most volatile options in fantasy. He’s a large-field option, though, as his workload is always truly an unknown.
Tyler Higbee returned from his one-game absence to catch four of five targets for 36 yards. New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends, but Higbee is slightly too expensive. He’s a touchdown-or-bust option.
With Tutu Atwell cleared, he and Demarcus Robinson will go back to rotating as the Rams’ No. 3 receiver. It’s been about a 60/40 playing time split in favor of Robinson when both are healthy. However, Atwell is my preferred option at nearly half the salary.
Jamaal Williams has quietly seen his touch count rise as of late, with 12 and nine opportunities over the past two games. That’s expected in big wins, as Williams is a powerful between-the-tackles runner. With New Orleans set up as a road underdog, his touch count could be low, taking him off of my radar.
The Saints tight end room remains confusing, even when you take out Taysom Hill. Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau ran the same amount of routes last week, with Moreau seeing five targets to Johnson’s two, but Johnson found the end zone.
The corpse of Jimmy Graham remains a factor, with Graham finding the end zone for his third-straight game. Graham and Moreau are viable, with my preference being Moreau. Johnson is too expensive, with Moreau having a similar role for far cheaper.
The Saints receiving room outside of Olave and Shaheed is scary, but let’s sort through the mess. Lynn Bowden Jr has played on over 60% of the snaps in four straight games and has seen nine targets over the past two weeks.
A.T. Perry and Keith Kirkwood rotated as the wide receiver three with Olave out, but it’s unclear what the rotation will be with Olave back. Perry had seen 60% or more of the snaps in Weeks 12-14, so he’s my preferred option.
Despite the snap numbers, Perry ran a route on 15 dropbacks last week, compared to 13 for Bowden and 10 for Kirkwood. That would be my order of preference for this week with Olave back.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Both defenses have some appeal, with two backup quarterbacks playing.
- Royce Freeman ($2.600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Royce Freeman’s role has been pretty fruitless as the backup in LA, but if the Rams were ever going to ease up on Williams’ workload, it would be on a short week as a home favorite.
- Davis Allen ($2.200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Davis Allen played well in Higbee’s absence in Week 14, which earned him about a third of the snaps in Week 15 with Higbee back. He’s a viable touchdown or bust cheap option.
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