Saturday’s second game is an AFC matchup between the Chargers and Bills, with Buffalo needing to win to stay in the playoff race. The Bills are listed as 12.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 44 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Josh Allen unsurprisingly leads the way on this Showdown slate, coming off a game where he was barely needed. Buffalo has been one of the most pass-happy teams in the league with Allen under center, but they had just a 29% dropback rate, which is the lowest of any team this entire year.
Allen ran for 24 yards and a touchdown on the ground while throwing for 94 yards and a score through the air. Los Angeles fired everyone after Aidan O’Connell lit them up last Thursday night. They’ll likely play hard under the new regime, but it’s unlikely that they can slow down Buffalo.
The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt and yards per completion to opposing quarterbacks on the year. Allen will likely feast in this spot.
Stefon Diggs has faced an absolute gauntlet of opposing defenses, with Dallas, Kansas City, Denver, and the New York Jets in four of his last five games. All of those teams do a stellar job at slowing down opposing No. 1 receivers. The other matchup came against Philadelphia, where he caught six of 11 targets for 74 yards and a touchdown.
Los Angeles has been ravaged by opposing top options, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing No. 1 receivers and the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to receivers as a whole.
James Cook feasted last week against Dallas, carrying the ball 25 times for 179 yards and a score. He also had three targets, catching two balls for 42 yards and a score. Joe Brady taking over as OC has worked wonders for Cook.
With Ken Dorsey coordinating the offense over the first ten games, Cook averaged 12 carries, 2.8 targets, and 84 total yards per game. In the four games with Joe Brady as OC, Cook has averaged 17 carries, 4.8 targets, and 141 total yards. Cook is still giving up goal-line touches to Latavius Murray, but his workload is valuable nonetheless.
Cook is a strong option once again this week against a Chargers’ defense that has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs and just surrendered 155 yards and two touchdowns to the Raiders’ RBs.
It’s been tough sledding for Austin Ekeler as of late, and last week was especially frustrating. He had just five carries for nine yards and caught four of six targets for 29 yards. Buffalo has allowed just 3.9 yards per carry to opposing backs since Week 6.
Ekeler played on just 40% of the snaps last week, likely due to the massive blowout script. However, with Ekeler set to be a free agent and a new regime coming in, they may want to take a look at what other running backs have. Ekeler is a volatile option, best reserved for tournaments.
He is still likely to lead the backfield, but there is some worry. With Buffalo in a way better spot, I prefer their three studs.
Easton Stick rounds out the stud section, and he benefitted from garbage time last week. Los Angeles lost by over 40 points, but Stick still threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns. He struggled in the first half when the game was still within reach.
We’ve seen Buffalo stymy far better quarterbacks in recent weeks, with Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott having poor performances against this Bills’ defense. Stick made some magic in garbage time last week, but it’s hard to expect a similar performance.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
With Keenan Allen sidelined, the Chargers’ receiving room will likely look similar to last week. Quentin Johnston ran 32 routes, with Josh Palmer running 30. Behind those two, Jalen Guyton and Alex Erickson ran 18 apiece.
Palmer finished with a great score last week, with 113 yards and a touchdown on four catches. However, one of those catches was a 79-yard touchdown on a blown coverage. If you remove that play, Palmer would’ve finished with three catches for 34 yards.
Johnston also didn’t do much, catching two of three targets for 23 yards and a score. I prefer Palmer to Johnston straight up, and Palmer makes sense in tournaments due to the likely low ownership. However, they project very similarly, and Johnston is far cheaper.
Guyton caught both of his targets for 19 yards, while Erickson caught one of two targets for 13 yards and a score. Whichever one is projecting less ownership is the preferred option, which I expect to be Guyton.
Buffalo’s lack of passing volume hurt Dalton Kincaid last week, who caught neither of his two targets. The matchup is solid, with the Chargers allowing the sixth-highest catch rate and seventh-most yards per target to opposing tight ends. However, Dawson Knox‘s return to the offense hurts Kincaid’s outlook.
Kincaid has run a route on just under 2/3 of the dropbacks in games with Knox healthy, compared to over 80% in the games where Knox is out. Both of these guys cannibalize each other’s upside, but they’re fine options.
Gabe Davis has now posted a goose egg in three of his last four games, with a 25.5-point performance mixed in there. It truly is a rollercoaster, but I’m back in on Gabe Davis this week. Los Angeles has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to boundary receivers, and we just saw Tre Tucker get loose deep on them multiple times. Davis has big play upside, and I could see him finding the end zone once or twice on Saturday.
I plan on building for Bills blowouts, and Davis allows for those lineups to be somewhat unique.
I was confident in Gerald Everett last week, and he saw a team-high eight targets. He caught just five balls for 41 yards but was clearly an important part of the offense. Donald Parham Jr. will be back for this game, which hurts Everett a little bit. However, I’m still interested in the veteran, as he’s seen eight targets in back-to-back games.
Isaiah Spiller remains my preferred option over Joshua Kelley behind Ekeler. The negative game script drastically benefitted Spiller last week, who saw 16 carries. It remains to be seen how this backfield operates in a close contest, but that may not be the case again, with Los Angeles an underdog of almost two touchdowns.
Spiller is a solid value option.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Latavius Murray ($2,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Latavius Murray is an appealing value option, as Murray has handled goal line touches and could see extended run with Buffalo likely salting away a lead in this spot.
