Week 15 finishes with a matchup in Seattle between the Eagles and Seahawks at 8:15 p.m. ET. Seattle desperately needs this game to stay in the mix for the NFC wildcard spots, and Philadelphia needs a win to keep pace with San Francisco for the one seed. The Eagles are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 45 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
All eyes are on Jalen Hurts‘ status, as he was downgraded to questionable with an illness. I’m expecting him to suit up, which thrusts him in as the slate’s top overall option. Seattle has allowed the sixth-most yards per pass attempt over the past five games and has been shredded by Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy.
Assuming Hurts is good to go, he’s a no-brainer option. If he were to miss, Marcus Mariota would become a very strong option at such a cheap price.
Seattle has been shredded by opposing receivers, and now they get a date with A.J. Brown. Devon Witherspoon is currently listed as questionable, and that’s a big injury to watch. Regardless, they’ve been leaky as of late, allowing three 100-yard receivers over the past two weeks.
Brown is right next to Hurts as one of the top options on the slate.
DK Metcalf follows, with four touchdowns over the past two weeks. He now runs into one of the best overall matchups in the league, as Philadelphia has allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers. They’ve surrendered the third most receptions and seventh-most yards per game to perimeter receivers, where Metcalf runs the majority of his routes.
Another injury to monitor is Geno Smith, who is currently questionable with a groin injury. Reports haven’t been too promising, as he supposedly has an “uphill battle” to play. DraftKings priced up Drew Lock, so not much changes based on the quarterback’s status.
Philadelphia has allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks and has been shredded as of late. They did just go through an absolute gauntlet of quarterbacks, including Dak Prescott twice, Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes.
I have interest in whichever quarterback starts, but if it’s Lock, there’s a slight bump to Seattle’s offense as a whole.
DeVonta Smith remained in A.J Brown’s shadow for most of the season but has come alive as of late. The whole team floundered last week, but he caught five of 10 targets for 73 yards. He had reached the end zone in each of the previous two games, with 26.6 and 24.6 DraftKings points.
Seattle plays zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the league this year, and Smith has just four fewer targets on the year than Brown against zone coverage.
Smith is very intriguing in tournaments, as most people opt for Brown.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
D’Andre Swift leads the midrange, and it’s been tough sledding for him as of late. He has single-digit DraftKings points in four of the past five games, including just 7.9 total over the past two weeks.
Philadelphia will likely lean run-heavy if Hurts is out, and they may give Swift more work around the goal line with Hurts battling an illness. Seattle has allowed the most yards per carry over the past five weeks, and the fourth-most rushing yards per game.
Priced right next to Swift, Kenneth Walker III faces a much tougher matchup, as Philadelphia has allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing backs. However, they have allowed at least 125 scrimmage yards to opposing backs in each of the past four games.
Matt Patricia is taking over defensive play-calling duties for Philadelphia, but it’s unclear how much will change. For Walker, he’s still giving up carries to Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet handled 10 touches to Walker’s 12 last week. Walker is too expensive in my opinion, so I prefer the rookie for the savings. However, neither is popping off the page to me.
Tyler Lockett does better in zone-heavy matchups, like last week against the 49ers. He caught all six of his targets for 89 yards. Philadelphia has played man coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the league, which isn’t a plus for Lockett. He has a 21% target rate per route run against man coverage compared to 23% against zone.
The real beneficiary is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN has a 26% target rate per route run against man coverage compared to 19% against zone. Dallas is a great comparison in defensive playstyle, and JSN saw 11 targets, catching seven balls for 62 yards. He’s a very strong option tonight.
Dallas Goedert‘s return to the lineup was fairly uneventful. He caught four of four targets for 30 yards in the blowout loss. He did run a route on over 90% of the dropbacks, which is a good sign. Seattle has allowed the fifth-most yards per target to opposing tight ends.
Kenneth Gainwell maintains a fairly small role in the Philadelphia offense. He handled just four carries last week, and his target numbers fluctuate from week to week, with three or more targets in just four games this year.
Seattle’s tight end room remains a rotation without much production. Noah Fant has seen four targets in back-to-back games and plays on around 60% of the snaps. Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly are priced at the minimum, with Parkinson being my preferred option. He plays on around 45% of the snaps compared to 30% for Dissly.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Quez Watkins ($800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Quez Watkins comes in very cheap, and ran a route on 43% of the dropbacks last week. He runs nearly 75% of his routes from the slot, where Seattle has allowed a good amount of production.
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