We could talk about pitchers, but this slate appears to be dictated more by hitters, specifically those in terrific situations. Just look at the pricing. There are only nine games sprinkled throughout the day (and only five tonight), but 15 batters cost at least $5,000 at DraftKings, whereas only one pitcher is priced over $10,000.
Given the slate, I’d rather focus on offenses than think about which pitchers to pay down for.
Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia-Xander Bogaerts-David Ortiz-Chris Young-Jackie Bradley
In both the Early and All-Day slates, the Red Sox lineup is sure to be heavily owned. Just note the implied Vegas total of 6.5 runs, which has actually increased, albeit marginally, since first opening. A projection of that many runs seems warranted, especially since the Red Sox are facing James Shields, who has recorded a per-start average of -25.48 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last four games.
Of course, stacking this team is easy. Stacking it in a unique and effective way is more difficult. Many people will likely want to roster Mookie Betts, whose -2.40 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last 10 games isn’t exactly ideal. It would be one thing if he were making solid contact and just not seeing results, but (per our advanced stats) his 187-foot batted-ball distance in the past 15 days is bottom-eight among outfielders this afternoon. Compare Betts to Bradley, whose .573 slugging percentage trails only Franklin Gutierrez’s (.597) and Nelson Cruz’s (.586) at the outfield position.
Fortunately, all other members in this particular stack have splits that pop. Pedroia’s .074 Isolated Power (ISO) Differential leads second basemen, Bogaerts has a 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, Ortiz’s .705 slugging percentage is .140 higher than the next first basemen’s, and Young’s nine Pro Trends are the most among outfielders today.
Plus/Minus, Bargain Rating, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Tigers: Ian Kinsler-Miguel Cabrera-Nick Castellanos-Justin Upton-Steven Moya
If you’re looking to fade the Red Sox, there really is no other team aside from the Tigers that can match them pound for pound in the early slate. The Tigers are implied to score 1.2 fewer runs, but their projected lineup’s .370 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is .047 greater than Boston’s.
Castellanos has a -0.118 ISO Differential today, but he is averaging the highest batted-ball distance among third basemen in the early slate. The same goes for Kinsler, who, despite negative Differentials, has the highest batted-ball distance at his position. And Cabrera’s recent performance (I probably don’t need to say) has been very strong, as his 236-football batted-ball distance in the last 15 days is actually 32 feet farther than David Ortiz’s.
Cubs: Ben Zobrist-Kris Bryant-Anthony Rizzo-Willson Contreras-Javier Baez
It should be noted that Rizzo is questionable today (which is why Contreras is currently expected to play). If Rizzo is ruled out, continue to stack the Cubs and simply shift exposure toward another player in the lineup. After all, Wei-Yin Chen has allowed a 241-foot batted-ball distance and exit velocity of 94 miles per hour in his last three starts. Those numbers aren’t going away.
Zobrist has a bottom-two recent batted-ball distance, but his .522 slugging percentage is still the highest among second basemen tonight. At FanDuel, he also has a 98 percent Bargain Rating, which is absurd for a leadoff hitter. Bryant has been crushing the ball recently, with a 252-foot batted-ball distance. Baez’s .163 wOBA Differential, as well as his .571 slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching, are both top-three among shortstops. Contreras has made only three plate appearances against southpaws this season, but note that he recorded a higher ISO and slugging percentage against said handedness in the minors.
Diamondbacks: Jean Segura-Michael Bourn-Paul Goldschmidt-Jake Lamb-Welington Castillo
Opposing pitcher Eddie Butler has managed to exceed salary-based expectations in only one of his last six starts, averaging 3.2 DraftKings points over his last three. And in his last outing, he allowed a 260-foot batted-ball distance and 96-MPH exit velocity. That why I wouldn’t be too concerned with Castillo’s -0.099 and -0.139 wOBA and ISO Differentials. In fact, Butler’s 1.94 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the past year should minimize the impact of any negative splits from Diamondbacks hitters.
Segura’s and Bourn’s .384 and .293 slugging percentages aren’t ideal at the top of any lineup, but both offer production in a number of ways. Segura, for example, is averaging .026 more steals per game than any other second baseman, and Bourn has quietly averaged a 231-foot batted-ball distance of late. And Lamb holds the lineup together. Not only has he produced a 61 percent Consistency in the last month, but he has also averaged a batted-ball distance 42 feet farther than his yearly average over the last 15 days. His hard-hit rate in that span is also top-three among third basemen.
Mets: Alejandro De Aza-Asdrubel Cabrera-Curtis Granderson-Neil Walker-Michael Conforto
This stack would be much more viable if Yoenis Cespedes were available, but he’s expected to sit for the next couple of days. Still, opposing pitcher Matt Wisler has allowed an average of eight hits over his last three games, recording only 8.1 DraftKings points per start in the last month. Seeing as how De Aza has a .049 wOBA Differential, he’s viable at leadoff.
More importantly, don’t allow Walker’s recent lack of production to fool you. He has produced an abysmal -3.10 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last 10 games, but he has the highest batted-ball distance among second basemen in that span. And we haven’t even factored in that Granderson, who has a top-five ISO Differential, is likely to hit only one spot ahead of Walker. Conforto will likely remain at the back end of the lineup, but his .234 and .265 wOBA and ISO Differentials are also in a terrific spot for tournaments, despite his average of 4.4 DraftKings points over his last 17 starts.
Good luck!
