I imagine schedule-makers were pretty proud of themselves when they came up with this one. At the outset of the season, the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders were expected to compete in the AFC West. A few injuries and a new head coach later, these divisional foes are running out the clock on the season. The Raiders are coming off a shutout effort at home, dropping a 3-0 decision to the Minnesota Vikings. Similarly, the Chargers are navigating the rest of their season without Justin Herbert after their star quarterback went down with a finger injury. There are more than a few reasons why this total is sitting in the 30s, but we can still make it a profitable endeavor.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Chargers-Raiders NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Aidan O’Connell Higher 18.5 Completions
Just about everybody has taken a turn beating up on the Chargers secondary, and now it’s Aidan O’Connell’s turn. O’Connell has gone through a similar trajectory as many other rookie quarterbacks. He’s been effective at times but occasionally gets hurt by bad reads and interceptions. He and the Raiders were humbled at home in Week 14, but they will have a lot more room to roam when they host LA on Thursday night.
Antonio Pierce has been steadfast in his game-planning around O’Connell. The Raiders quarterback has attempted no fewer than 32 pass attempts over his last three outings, averaging 35.3 across the small sample. More importantly, O’Connell has made the most of those opportunities, completing 64.2% of his throws, with no fewer than 21 completions per game.
The Chargers will offer little resistance in stopping the Raiders’ aerial assault. Los Angeles gives up the fourth-most passing yards per game, the 11th-worst completion percentage, and the sixth-most completions. As expected, those metrics deteriorate on the road, which will further be compounded by playing a road game on a short week.
The Raiders are asking a lot from their rookie quarterback, but O’Connell has responded with some above-average performances. He’s averaging 22.7 completions over his past three starts and should have no problems finding holes in the Chargers’ gaping pass defense. According to our projections, O’Connell’s completions projection is well below where we would expect it to be, leaving an edge in going higher than 18.5.
Austin Ekeler Lower 13.5 Rush Attempts
The Chargers offense is sputtering. LA hasn’t recorded more than ten points in any of its last three games, totaling a laughable 17 over that stretch. Although you’d expect them to lean into their top producers to remedy the situation, that hasn’t been the case. Instead, Brandon Staley is spreading the ball out, looking for anyone to respond. Unfortunately, nobody has, and it’s come at the expense of Austin Ekeler’s workload.
Ekeler still gets the lion’s share of touches out of the backfield, but there are a few other variables to consider. First, LA is almost always playing from behind, making it hard to get the run game going. Second, Staley has to find ways to incorporate Joshua Kelley into the schemes. Lastly, the Chargers enter this divisional battle as +3 underdogs, implying that they will face similar issues at Allegiant Stadium on Thursday night.
Altogether, Ekeler has attempted exactly ten rushing attempts in three of his last four, reaching a high point of 14 carries back in Week 13. Over that stretch, Kelley has accumulated 18 rushing attempts to Ekeler’s 44 while also soaking a handful of targets in the passing game. Moreover, the Chargers have dropped three of those decisions, negatively impacting both of their workloads.
With Justin Herbert out of the lineup, there’s some temptation to take Ekeler to go higher than his rushing attempts projection; however, there are too many factors working against him. On top of sharing the workload and likely playing from behind, the Raiders boast one of the top rushing defenses at home, limiting opponents to 104.3 yards per game. That aligns with improved overall effort, as Las Vegas has limited its last three opponents to a combined 300 yards. We’re taking a stance on Ekeler falling below 13.5 rush attempts.
Quentin Johnston Higher 25.5 Receiving Yards
As a part of their attempts to diversify their offense, we’ve seen the Chargers incorporate Quentin Johnston into their schemes more frequently. The rookie wideout has seen a dramatic increase in his underlying metrics, resulting in improved on-field results. We’re expecting that upward trend to continue against the Raiders as he surpasses his modest receiving yards total.
Johnston was overlooked in the early part of the campaign. Through the first six weeks of the season, the TCU product averaged a 36.5% snap count, with a range of 14.9% to 54.0%. Since then, his usage has exploded. Johnston has played 70.0% of snaps or more in six of seven, eclipsing 83.0% in four of those contests.
Predictably, increased usage correlates with better production. Through his first six games, Johnston averaged 1.2 catches on 2.5 targets for a dismal 46.7% catch rate. Over the last seven games, his averages have jumped to 3.1 receptions on 4.7 targets for a substantially improved 66.7% catch rate.
Even though Johnston is coming off a career-best performance, his underlying analytics are propping up sustained success. He’s recored 143 receiving yards over his last two outings, going north of 34 in four of his previous seven. Las Vegas’ pass defense is falling apart in the latter part of the campaign, with their opponent’s passing yards per game inflating to 237.7 over its last three. Johnston will do his part to extend that woeful trend.
