For Wednesday night, the NBA delivers a nine-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton at Milwaukee Bucks – $11,100 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
Tonight’s meeting between the Pacers and the Bucks carries the highest total the NBA has seen this year at a whopping 258.5 points, via the FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Both of these clubs rank inside the top five in pace and in the bottom eight in defensive efficiency, and having some shares of Haliburton in this incredible setting is a must tonight. This will be the guard’s third matchup with Milwaukee this season and the first two, he was stellar, producing 59.9 DraftKings PPG.
Thanks to a career-high usage rate (26.9%) and the highest assist percentage in the league (46.5%), Haliburton is supplying 1.6 DraftKings PPM this season, and it’s important to note that tonight’s contests will be on the road in Milwaukee. Mostly due to road games being more competitive, Haliburton has been one of the best road players in the league this season, amassing 62.1 DraftKings PPG, which is a significant 12.0 more DraftKings PPG than when he has competed at home.
In fact, the budding star has been even better when competing as a road underdog, which is the case tonight, with the Bucks as 6.5-point favorites. For the four occasions Haliburton has played as a road underdog this season, the guard is generating an eye-popping 72.44 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Dennis Schroder vs. Atlanta Hawks – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Schroder is coming off a 48 DraftKings point effort vs. the Knicks, which is an impressive feat, considering New York ranks 12th in defensive efficiency and dead last in pace this season. Now, the guard finds himself in a perfect spot to carry over this momentum, going against Hawks club that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and third in pace. This game’s total is the third highest on the slate (240 points), and the Raptors boast their largest implied team total of the season (120 points).
Schroder has recorded at least 33 DraftKings points in three of the five starts he has made in a total of at least 225 points this season and is a great mid-tier target against his former club on Wednesday.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Terry Rozier at Miami Heat – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Facing the Heat on Monday, Rozier was unstoppable, exposing the team for 60 DraftKings points, marking his fourth performance in a row of at least 44 DraftKings points. The reason for Rozier’s recent success has been the absence of LaMelo Ball (ankle), who will miss his seventh consecutive game on Wednesday. With the guard off the court this season, Rozier’s usage has risen 1.5 percentage points and his assist percentage has jumped 4.8 percentage points, which has resulted in 1.2 DraftKings PPM for the guard, via the On/Off Tool.
While we can’t expect another 60 DraftKings point outing, Rozier should exceed 5x value tonight, even at these season-high salaries.
Top Value: OG Anunoby vs. Atlanta Hawks – $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Anunoby has flashed strong upside recently, scoring over 40 DraftKings points in two of his last three starts, and brings a similar ceiling in this plus spot vs. the Hawks. The wing is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season, and his playing time has been way up recently, with Anunoby logging over 36 minutes in three straight games.
As noted above, the Raptors carry their highest implied team total of the season tonight (120 points). When playing behind an implied team total of at least 110 points this season, Anunoby is averaging 31 DraftKings PPG, which is right around what he needs to reach five-times value this evening.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Brandon Ingram vs. Washington Wizards – $7,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Zion Williamson (questionable, ankle) is an important name to monitor tonight because if he sits, there will be a plethora of great targets to attack from the Pelicans, with Ingram being the best of the bunch. Hosting the Wizards tonight – who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and second in pace – New Orleans boasts the third-highest implied team total on the slate (124.75 points).
Ingram is amassing 43 DraftKings PPG for three starts he has made sans Williamson this season, and with the forward off the floor, Ingram’s usage increases by 4.2 percentage points, and he leads the Pelicans with 1.23 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. If Williamson is out, Ingram should beat these sub-$8,000 salaries with ease.
Top Value: Caleb Martin vs. Charlotte Hornets – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
Martin just posted 37.75 DraftKings points across a season-high 38.3 minutes vs. the Hornets on Monday and is a terrific target again for tonight’s rematch with the club. After being limited with a knee injury to begin his season, Martin has finally started to look like the player we saw flourish during the Heat’s postseason run to the NBA Finals last season. The wing has started in three straight games, and with the role, Martin has provided 40 DraftKings PPG with a 23.6% usage rate during this span.
With Bam Adebayo (hip), Tyler Herro (ankle), and Haywood Highsmith (back) all remaining out tonight, Martin should continue to see a large workload and has 40 fantasy point upside against this Hornets’ defense that ranks 29th in efficiency.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Indiana Pacers – $11,400 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
Competing in the highest total the NBA has seen this season (258.5 points), Antetokounmpo should explode tonight. The Pacers lead the league in pace this season. In this spot, the Bucks present a massive implied team total of 132.5 points, which is the highest implied team total on the slate by 6.5 points and is the largest implied team total Antetokounmpo has ever played behind.
At 33.6%, the forward has continued to see a huge usage rate even with Damian Lillard in town this season. In the Bucks’ first two matchups of the year vs. Indiana, Antetokounmpo dominated with 64.3 DraftKings PPG.
The former MVP is the NBA’s leader in points in the paint per game this season and should flourish against this Pacers defense that is giving up the most paint points this season by a large gap. The last five times Antetokounmpo has played in a total of at least 240 points, he is generating 65.7 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Keldon Johnson vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $6,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Johnson shouldn’t be overly popular tonight and has a ton of appeal for GPPs. The Spurs will be at home, where the forward has been significantly better this season, averaging 37.3 DraftKings PPG, which is nearly 7.0 more DraftKings PPG than when he plays on the road.
The Lakers rank seventh in defensive efficiency, but they are on the second night of a back-to-back after losing to the Mavs on Tuesday. Tonight’s game carries a healthy total of 230.5 points, and Los Angeles is only favored by two points, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
When competing on his home floor and in a total of 230 points or greater this season, Johnson has excellent with 41.2 DraftKings PPG (five games), via the Trends Tool.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Utah Jazz – $8,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
As we saw Monday, when Randle finished with 50.5 DraftKings points vs. the Raptors, the big man benefits greatly with Mitchell Robinson (ankle) out of the lineup. This was the first game the center has missed this season, but the 24th contest Robinson has missed over the last two years.
Randle has played in all but one of those tilts and has been very efficient, contributing 46.4 DraftKings PPG. Overall, with Robinson off the court this season, Randle’s usage has risen 2.6 percentage points to 31.5%, and he is collecting 1.4 DraftKings PPM.
With Robinson out again tonight, Randle is one of the best high-end values available in this great matchup vs. the Jazz, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency this season and have many key players questionable for tonight.
Top Value: Nick Richards at Miami Heat – $5,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
After being one of the most rostered players of the night Monday and disappointing with only 15 DraftKings points vs. the Heat, Richards is expected to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel for tonight’s rematch in Miami, creating a great chance to buy low on the center.
Mark Williams (doubtful, back) is expected to remain out Wednesday, keeping Richards as the Hornets’ starting center. While his fantasy score was a letdown Monday, Richards still saw 26.2 minutes of work with Williams inactive. Richards is collecting 1.1 DraftKings PPM this season, and before Monday, the big man was averaging 32.1 DraftKings for the previous 10 occasions he had logged a minimum of 25 minutes.
Another reason to expect a bounce performance from Richards is that he recorded a double-double of 28.75 DraftKings points vs. the Heat last month despite coming off the bench with Williams available for that tilt.
Richards should get back on track tonight with nothing less than 25 fantasy points, and is a terrific way to differentiate your lineup from the field.
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