As DFS players, we spend most of our time looking forward to the next slate, the next season, etc. Equally important, though, is looking back. Figuring out the thought process that leads to winning lineups is crucial. That’s what makes us better players in the long term.
Week 14 looked like it was going to be somewhat low-scoring, with low game totals across the board. It turned out to be anything but, with a few games going well above their totals. Which “Hacksawe11” took full advantage of, getting plenty of exposure to a pair of games that surprisingly turned into shootouts.
Let’s take a look at how they turned that foresight into a million dollars below.
The Lineup
The Stack
For the first time in a while, a traditional double stack took down the Milly Maker. Still no bring-back from the opposing team, however. Which is surprising, given that the Ravens-Rams game turned into a 68-point shootout.
The basis of this stack was Lamar Jackson, who projected with one of the highest Leverage Scores at the position in our Week 14 models. Jackson is always a threat to be the top quarterback play on the slate, thanks to his dual-threat ability. Jackson topped 300 yards and three touchdowns throwing, but the seven points he contributed with his legs were the difference between first and second place — a $900,000 swing.
It was also easy to stack Jackson cheaply, thanks to plenty of targets to go around in the absence of Mark Andrews. Odell Beckham and Isaiah Likely have combined for nearly 50% of Jackson’s air yards, making them a steal at a combined price of $7,300.
Hacksawe11 was also overweight the field on Zay Flowers with their 71 rosters, so my guess is he was mixing and matching Ravens pass catchers to pair with Jackson on various lineups.
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The Chalk
The most heavily owned piece in this lineup was Joe Mixon, who has an excellent matchup against the Colts. Indy has allowed the highest Opponent Plus/Minus score to running backs of any team on the slate. With the loss of Joe Burrow, it was also a fairly reasonable assumption that Cincinnati would have a more run-heavy approach going forward. That proved true in Week 14, with Mixon seeing 21 carries — his second-most on the season.
It’s also worth noting that while Mixon was popular, his counterpart from the Colts, Zack Moss was the chalkiest player on the slate. We generally try to avoid opposing running backs — especially those like Moss and Mixon, who benefit from positive game scripts. Rostering Mixon instead of Moss was thus actually solid leverage over a good chunk of the field.
Drake London was fairly popular, at over 20% ownership. However, the combination of London and Rachaad White almost certainly wasn’t, as White came in at just 3.9%. That made this an excellent pairing, as the correlation between opposing WRs and RBs is strong. Unlike opposing backs, they benefit from opposite game scripts, which worked out here. I’m kicking myself for not playing more White myself — I wrote him up as a strong option in my Week 14 Breakdown, but mostly moved away from him as late news made other backs more appealing.
Finally, Deebo Samuel was somewhat popular at 16.5%. He trailed only McCaffrey among 49ers in Week 14 and was the most utilized of the three primary pass catchers. It continues to be a guessing game on which 49er has the big day, but it’s a fairly safe guess that at least one of them will. Hacksawe11 had a near-even mix of Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey, with a bit of George Kittle as well. This is the sharp way to build a multi-entry portfolio rather than try to isolate which player is likely to exceed expectations.
The Sleepers
Most of the low-owned players in this lineup came via the primary stack or the correlation between London and White. With the exception of Austin Ekeler, whom most of the DFS community had given up on. Ekeler has clearly lost a step or two this season, at least since coming back from his Week 1 injury. He’s yet to top 25 points on DraftKings despite fairly heavy workloads.
Still, it was a good matchup against a bad Broncos defense, and Ekeler’s passing game involvement keeps him in the weekly conversation. It didn’t turn out to be a great week for the Chargers back, but it was enough to keep this lineup in first place. Ekeler slightly performed all the other running backs in his salary range (except White), which is sometimes enough to win the week.
Arguably, the most important element of this lineup was Minnesota’s defense. The Vikings managed to pitch a shutout against the Raiders in Week 14 while adding four sacks and three turnovers. They were also just $100 more than the week’s most popular defense, making them a strong pivot.
Hacksawe11 didn’t take a strong stance on the Vikings defense, with just slightly higher exposure than the field. But they were lucky enough that one of those rosters was this one, as this lineup would’ve finished fourth if it had the Browns instead.
