Fair warning, friends; counting a three-game all-day slate on Christmas Day, this is the third to last Monday Night Football of the season. But we’re not looking ahead to the future; instead, we’re living in the here and now. It’s officially our last double-header of the season, and both games are rife with playoff implications. The Green Bay Packers are looking to assert themselves as NFC contenders, needing a win over the New York Giants to stay ahead of four other teams with 6-7 records. Similarly, the Miami Dolphins are trying to keep pace with the Baltimore Ravens for the top spot in the AFC. Standing in their way is a 4-8 Tennessee Titans squad that’s already shifted its focus to the future.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Packers-Giants and Titans-Dolphins NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Tyjae Spears Higher 14.5 Receiving Yards
As noted, the Titans have pivoted their view toward future years. Tennessee is incorporating more of their youngsters into the game planning, making them a focal point on offense. Included in that group is Tyjae Spears, sharing the backfield with Derrick Henry. Although Henry continues to get the lion’s share of carries, we’re seeing Spears carve out a more prominent role in the passing game.
Spears’ role with the team is growing. The Titans have deployed their rookie running back on more than 59% of snaps in three of their past five games. More time on the field correlates with heavier involvement, with Spears being targeted at least five times in all three of those contests. Across the entirety of the five-game sample, Spears has hauled in 15 of 22 passes for 72 yards or 4.8 yards per reception.
Relying strictly on averages, Spears needs about three catches to eclipse his receiving yards prop. Based on our projections, he should have no problem reaching that threshold. The Tulane product has three or more receptions in seven of his last 10.
We’ve seen the Dolphins lose sight of running backs in the past. A couple of weeks ago, Breece Hall totaled 24 receiving yards against Miami. Likewise, Jerrick McKinnon accumulated 22 receiving yards when the Kansas City Chiefs hosted Miami a few weeks ago.
Spears has been a productive outlet for Will Levis. We expect him to feature in the passing game again on Monday night as the Titans try to keep pace with the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium.
Jayden Reed Lower 4.0 Receptions
It’s been a total team effort to get the Packers to .500 and back into the NFC playoff picture. We’ve seen different players step up throughout their three-game winning streak, with the credit being shared across the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. With Jordan Love being able to distribute the ball amongst playmakers, we’ve seen Jayden Reed’s role change from the outset of the campaign. At the start of the season, he was expected to be the bellcow on offense; instead, he’s turned out to be one of several pass-catchers in Love’s progressions.
In terms of target share, Reed has fallen behind Romeo Doubs, sitting just ahead of Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave. That’s in addition to the running game, in which Matt LaFleur has to find enough plays to distribute the workload between Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Altogether, there’s a plethora of skilled players to incorporate and a finite amount of snaps in a game.
Editor’s note: Aaron Jones isn’t expected to play Monday night. Check the player props tool for updated projections.
Consequently, we’ve seen Reed’s ceiling capped in 2023. The Packers wide receiver has eclipsed four catches just once this season, averaging 3.3 receptions per game. Additionally, Reed has seen five or fewer targets in three of his last five, further impacting his ability to exceed his reception projection against the Giants.
When the dust settles in this one, we’re expecting Reed to fall below 4.0 receptions. Love has shown a preference for Doubs in the aerial assault, but with the number of playmakers on the Packers’ roster, Reed just isn’t getting a sufficient workload to eclipse his prop.
De’Von Achane Higher 2.0 Receptions
We thought the Dolphins offense was phenomenal without De’Von Achane, but they continue to find another level with their star running back on the field. After playing just one snap from Week 6 to Week 12, the rooking out of Texas A&M returned with a vengeance in Week 13. Against the Washington Commanders, Achane totaled 103 yards from scrimmage, taking on a primary role in the running and passing attack. We’re anticipating a similar showing versus the Titans.
Achane is a beast every time he steps onto the gridiron. The Texas native has totaled more than 100 yards in every game he’s had more than one carry, with many of those yards coming via the pass. Achane has three or more receptions in three of his past five, posting a Pro Bowl-worthy 80.0% catch rate. Included in that sample is Week 11’s effort, in which Achane played just three snaps, representing 4.0% of the offensive plays.
Tennessee boasts one of the worst passing defenses in the league. The Titans allow the 11th-most yards and seventh-worst completion percentage, with those metrics deteriorating on the road. Achane doesn’t have the runway to catch C.J. Stroud in the Offensive Rookie of the Year category, but he’ll have plenty of time and space to exceed two receptions on Monday night.
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