The entire NFL world has had this date circled on its calendar for months. The fate of the NFC East could come down to Sunday night’s affair between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. Philadelphia enters the intradivisional battle with a one-game edge over the Cowboys; however, a loss at AT&T Stadium could undo all the work the Eagles have done in staking themselves to the division lead. Whatever the outcome, we’re expecting both heavyweights to bring their A-games as the entire nation tunes in to see which team comes out on top.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Eagles-Cowboys NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
D’Andre Swift Lower 13.0 Rushing Attempts
There is no shortage of playmakers for the Eagles on offense, and that’s especially true out of the backfield. So far this season, four different running backs have earned carries for the Eagles, and that’s before considering all the leg work that Jalen Hurts puts in. Although D’Andre Swift has earned the lion’s share of touches, it likely still won’t be enough to get him over 13.0 carries agianst the Cowboys.
Swift’s workload has taken a modest hit lately. The former second-round pick had accumulated 135 carries through his first nine games of the season for an average of 15.0 carries per game. In the three contests since then, Swift has totaled just 32 rushing attempts, exceeding 12 carries in just one of those games.
Teams haven’t had any success running the ball against the Cowboys lately, further impacting Swift’s potential Sunday night. The last three opponents to take on Dallas have mustered a combined 290 rushing yards, equaling just 96.7 per game.
Against a fierece defensive front, and with a stable of running backs and playmakers to appease, it’s unlikely Swift accumulates the necessary workload to surpass 13.0 rushing attempts. That advantage is reflected in our player projections, a play we’re making on SNF.
Jake Ferguson Lower 44.5 Receiving Yards
Dallas doesn’t have as robust of a list of playmakers as the Eagles, but they do well to distribute the pigksin to the skill players on the roster. Among those is Jake Ferguson, whose workload has fluctuated over the course of the season. Coming off one of his best efforts on the year, Ferguson will inevitably come back down to earth, particularly against a fierce Eagles’ defensive front.
It’s been an all-or-nothing kind of season for Ferguson. In three games in Weeks 4, 9, and 12, the Cowboys tight end has caught 20 of 25 targets for 245 yards and two touchdowns. In his nine other games, Ferguson has totaled just 253 yards, failing to surpass 48 in any contest. More concerning, his catch rate dips to 63.4%.
Coming off their bye, the Eagles have been successful in handcuffing opposing tight ends. First, they limited Travis Kelce to just 44 receiving yards in Week 11. Then, the Eagles held Dalton Kincaid to 38 yards in an interconference showdown against the Buffalo Bills. Although George Kittle bucked that trend last week, accumulating 68 yards, Philadelphia’s defense still held him to an average 66.7% catch rate.
We’re expecting the Eagles to tighten up their pass coverage against Ferguson. Moreover, the big man is a natural regression candidate, as he’s been unable to string together above-average performances in consecutive outings this season. Altogether, we’re betting Ferguson stays beneath 44.5 receiving yards.
Michael Gallup Higher 15.5 Receiving Yards
On the opposite end of the progression/regression spectrum stands Michael Gallup. The Cowboys receiver has taken a backseat to CeeDee Lamb, and even Brandin Cooks this season, but he isn’t nearly as bad as the zero receiving yards we saw from him last week. Look for Gallup to shine against an Eagles’ secondary that struggles to contain wideouts.
Last week was the first time since Week 7 of 2022 that Gallup failed to record a catch. Otherwise, the 27-year-old was trending positively over his recent sample. In the three games prior to Week 13, Gallup had caught six of eight targets, totaling 114 yards and a touchdown. That represents an average of 38.0 yards per game on two catches.
A mid-30s receiving yards performance doesn’t even scratch the surface of what Gallup can accomplish against Philadelphia. The Eagles rank fourth-to-last in the NFL, getting burned for an average of 260.3 passing yards per game. Over the past three weeks, eight different wide receivers have recorded at least 42 receicing yards against the Eagles.
The last time these teams met, Gallup totaled 19 yards on two catches, but he projects much higher than that in this one. His catch rate jumps from 53.1% on the road to 73.3% at home, implying that Gallup needs fewer targets to eclipse his modest receiving yards projection in Week 14. It shouldn’t take long against a porous Eagles pass defense. We’re betting Gallup exceeds 15.5 receiving yards Sunday night.
