The bye-week blues will be a thing of the past following Week 14. The Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders are the only teams not in action on this week, leaving fantasy players with almost their entire rosters to choose from and bettors a full array of player projections to sift through. Fret not, as we’re running through our usual breakdowns, reconciling our models with the gambling market to help bettors find that winning edge.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Week 14 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Jamaal Williams Lower 6.5 Rushing Attempts
This season hasn’t been the campaign Jamaal Williams was hoping for. The New Orleans running back spent a few weeks on the shelf, hardly explaining his complete lack of production. Williams is on pace for the worst statistical season of his career, a trend that will spill into Week 14.
The Saints aren’t prioritizing Williams in the offense. The 28-year-old has accumulated just 52 rushing attempts on the year, 18 of which came in the season opener. Otherwise, he’s been held to nine or fewer carries in each subsequent week, including five or fewer in four straight.
Worse, Williams is hardly seeing the field lately. He’s played fewer than 33.5% of snaps in all but one of his past seven outings, and he hasn’t earned more touches out of the backfield. Williams is averaging an embarrassing 2.8 yards per carry this season, ensuring the Saints look elsewhere for offensive production.
Sunday’s tilt against the Carolina Panthers won’t change the course of Williams’ season. The seventh-year pro has fallen by the wayside this season, and the Saints don’t have the flexibility to fiddle with their schemes as they try to keep pace in the NFC South. Consequently, we’re betting William falls below 6.5 carries in Week 14.
Roschon Johnson Higher 19.5 Rushing Yards
Roschon Johnson hasn’t been a primary contributor for the Chicago Bears this year, but he has been effective when called upon, The rookie running back has generally been reserved for mop-up time, but even then Johnson has thrived with the added workload. With Chicago’s season all but over, it might be time to expect some growth from Johnson as the Bears focus on building for the future.
Last time out, Johnson had his most robust workload of the season. The former Texas Longhorns back carried the ball 10 times, falling just a few yards short of his previous high. That was the second straight week in which Johnson eclipsed 30 rushing yards in a game and the eighth time he’s averaged at least 3.5 yards per carry.
Johnson and the Bears have the added bonus of running against a Detroit Lions rush defense that is falling apart in the latter part of the campaign. Opponents are averaging 135.0 yards per game against the Lions over their last three, with all three squads going north of 109 yards. Included in that sample is Week 11 contest against Chicago, in which the Bears went off for 198 rushing yards.
Johnson’s role is evolving with the Bears. The rookie has taken on more responsibility and is showing that he can handle more than the Bears are giving him. Coming in off a bye, Chicago should have no problems moving the ball at home against their division rivals. Johnson will be a regular part of that attack, exceeding 19.5 rushing yards Sunday.
Desmond Ridder Higher 12.5 Rushing Yards
We’re making back-to-back plays on rushing-yard projections, taking Desmond Ridder to go higher than 12.5 rushing yards versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Ridder has flashed his dual-threat ability all season, and he should have plenty of space to roam against a Bucs defense that is crumbling at the wrong time of year.
Tampa Bay has been exposed all season, but its rushing defense has deteriorated over the last few weeks. Since Week 11, the Buccaneers are giving up 134.3 rushing yards per game. Before that, opponents were mustering a paltry 87.2. Look for Ridder and the Atlanta Falcons ground game to take advantage of those recent deficiencies.
Moreover, Ridder is no stranger to taking off, rushing the ball at least three times in five straight games. Over that stretch, Ridder is averaging 21.0 yards per game, surpassing 11 rushing yards in all but one of those contests. Further, his 4.8 yards per carry highlight Ridder’s effectiveness when he decides to tuck the ball and run.
Ridder could easily surpass his rushing projection on a single carry. His game-long rushing attempt has been at least 13 yards in four of his last six games, which would obviously surpass the 12.5 needed for the higher to cash. Considering the Buccaneers’ defensive woes and Ridder’s liberal standard for running the ball, we expect him to find his way north of the total at home.
Kyle Granson Lower 12.5 Receiving Yards
Every once in a while, Kyle Granson comes out of nowhere and delivers a top-end fantasy performance. However, after last week’s outburst, which was only his second 60-plus receiving yard performance of the season, Granson is poised for a letdown against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Last week against the Tennessee Titans, the Indianapolis Colts tight end hauled in all three of his targets for a career-best 72 yards. But that was the exception to an otherwise disappointing rule, as Granson is often overlooked in Gardner Minshew’s progressions. In the three weeks prior, Granson was never targeted more than twice in a game, totaling five targets but catching just one of those passes for five yards.
Regression is imminent for Granson. He substantially overachieved against the Titans, nearly doubling his season stats in one outing. Granson enters this AFC tilt with a 12.5 receiving yard projection, and that still might be overestimating his contributions. We’re expecting the Colts tight end to fall beneath his projection in Week 14.
Breece Hall Higher 21.5 Receiving Yards
It’s been an interesting year for Breece Hall. The New York Jets running back entered the campaign with promise, coming back from an ACL tear in time for Week 1. In that contest, Hall ran for 127 yards on 10 carries, picking up where he left off in his rookie season. As the season has progressed, Hall has done less and less in the ground game. Nevertheless, he’s carved out a role in the aerial assault and should once again be a factor against the Houston Texans.
Constantly playing from behind, the Jets have no choice but to air it out to keep pace with their opponents. Those issues have been compounded by ineffective quarterbacks who don’t have the arm strength or accuracy to go deep, instead turning to checkdowns to get the team moving. That’s been Hall’s bread and butter all season, but even more so over the last few weeks.
Hall has been targeted six or more times in three straight weeks. Over that modest sample, the Iowa State product has totaled 18 catches and 103 yards on 23 targets, surpassing 24 receiving yards in all three contests.
The Jets running back should have no problem maintaining those numbers against the Texans’ lowly pass defense. Houston allows the seventh-most passing yards per game in the NFL, giving up an average of 245.2 per game. Opposing running backs have accounted for a hefty portion of those yards, with four of the last six lead backs going for at least 24 receiving yards.
All signs point toward Hall going higher than 21.5 receiving yards against the Texans on Sunday.
