Not all primetime games are created equal, and we’re about to learn that the hard way on Thursday Night Football. The 2-10 New England Patriots are just running out the clock on their worst season in recent memory. Putting forth a sincere effort gets Bill Belichick closer to win 301 but further away from the first overall selection in the upcoming draft. The Pittsburgh Steelers have defied expectations this season but will have to bounce back following a disappointing loss to the Arizona Cardinals on a short week. Compounding those issues are injuries to several noteworthy playmakers, including Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris, and Cameron Heyward.
The first team to 10 wins this one.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Patriots-Steelers NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Jaylen Warren Higher 45.5 Rushing Yards
This market varies widely depending on where you shop, but thankfully, Underdog Fantasy is playing Jaylen Warren’s total yards projection at 45.5. Still, we’re betting the Steelers running back hits the mid-to-high 40s by the end of the night. Granted, New England’s rush defense is one of the best in the league, but Pittsburgh’s best chance of winning comes from taking the ball out of Mitch Trubisky’s hands.
The other factor worth weighing is Najee Harris’ status ahead of kick-off. Harris has served as the primary back for the Steelers this season, but he popped onto the team’s injury report and was notably absent from walk-throughs. Even if Harris plays, the Steelers can’t afford to lose another starter, meaning Warren is likely in line for a more robust workload on a short week.
Even with Harris in the lineup, Warren is getting his fair share of carries out of the backfield. The second-year pro has attempted no fewer than nine carries in any of Pittsburgh’s last five games, averaging 11.4 rushing attempts per game. More impressively, Warren has totaled 426 rushing yards over that stretch, for an average of 85.2 rushing yards per game and 7.5 yards per carry.
The Steelers can’t afford to drop two in a row against sub-par opponents. Without Pickett operating the offense, look for Mike Tomlin and Eddie Faulkner to play to their strengths, incorporating a heavy dose of the ground game to keep the Pats off the field. The most appealing place to make this wager is at Underdog Fantasy, but go higher than 45.5 rushing yards anywhere else you can find it.
Hunter Henry Lower 2.5 Receptions
Bailey Zappe was tapped as the Patriots’ starting quarterback after Belichick grew tired of Mac Jones’ ineffective play. Last week, Zappe had a mediocre outing against the Los Angeles Chargers, and he could suffer a similar fate against the Steelers. That negatively impacts his pass-catchers receiving projections, including Hunter Henry’s ability to go north of 2.5 receptions.
Henry has been a tertiary option in the Patriots’ schemes this season. The Arkansas product has totaled a paltry 15 receptions over the previous eight weeks, with a similarly diminished amount of targets. Henry has eclipsed three targets just twice across the eight-game sample, deflating his target share to 12.0% on the season.
The Steelers started off the campaign on the wrong foot, but we’ve seen a more resilient pass defense over their recent schedule. Pittsburgh has limited its last three opponents to an average of 164.0 yards per game, dropping its season average to 227.3. Further, they’ve posted one of the best opponent completion rates in the league, limiting opponents to a 59.2% success rate since the start of the season.
Henry’s ability to eclipse his passing projection is hampered by a few factors. First, he’s seeing fewer targets in the Patriots’ passing game. Second, he’ll be looking for throws from his backup quarterback, who completed just 52% of his passes in Week 13. Lastly, the Steelers defense has been particularly stingy lately, limiting opponents’ yardage and completions. Altogether, we’re expecting Henry to fall short of 2.5 receptions.
Allen Robinson Higher 1.5 Receptions and 11.5 Receiving Yards
There is no shortage of pass-catchers for Trubisky to distribute the ball to, but we’ve seen a resurgent effort from a Pro Bowler more recently. Allen Robinson went through a mid-season lull, soaking just two receptions on four targets between Week 7 and Week 10. He bounced back by hauling in seven of eight targets over the past three weeks, yielding 50 yards. Robinson has chemistry on his side with his former Chicago Bears teammate under center.
Robinson has seen some pronounced ebbs and flows throughout the season. The 30-year-old started off the season as one of the primary receiving options, accumulating 26 targets through the first five weeks. Although his volume hasn’t reached that early-season pinnacle, we’re getting a more sure-handed version of Robinson in the latter part of the campaign. He has a noteworthy 87.5% catch rate, grabbing all three of the passes thrown his way last week.
If there’s a weakness on the defensive side of the ball, it’s New England’s pass defense. The Patriots sit in the bottom half of the league in opponent completion percentage while also allowing a middling 221.8 passing yards per game. Watch Robinson expose those deficiencies on Thursday night.
If your shop offers a receptions line, our biggest edge is backing Robinson to exceed 1.5 catches; however, there’s still a player-friendly advantage in backing him to eclipse 11.5 receiving yards. Robinson can be Trubisky’s safety blanket, and his recent play supports that we’re seeing the best Robinson has to offer at the right time of year.
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