This Thursday Night Football matchup looks like an all-time slugfest. The Steelers host the Patriots and are listed as 6-point home favorites, while the total sits at a lowly 30 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
The word “stud” is used lightly here, as this game is devoid of elite offensive talent. With Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out, a duo of Pittsburgh wide receivers lead the way, with George Pickens coming in as the highest-priced player and Diontae Johnson right behind him.
My preference is with Johnson, who leads the team with a 30% target share when on the field. Pickens has just a 19% target share when both receivers are on the field. New England also runs the second-highest rate of man coverage, and Johnson boasts a 32% target rate per route run against man.
Pickens can do more with less, as he boasts big play upside. Pickens will certainly be lower-owned, making him an intriguing pivot in tournaments. However, my preference is with Johnson.
Stevenson left last week’s matchup early, leading to Ezekiel Elliott seeing a big workload. He took 17 carries for 52 yards and caught four of five targets for 40 yards. Ty Montgomery could mix in to steal work from Elliott, but he didn’t last week despite Stevenson being hurt early.
Pittsburgh has allowed the 14th-most DraftKings points and yards per carry to opposing running backs. Elliott is a great play tonight.
Mitch Trubisky is my preferred option of the two quarterbacks tonight. Bailey Zappe completed just over 50% of his passes last week for 5.6 yards per attempt. We have a large sample size of Trubisky. He’s nothing spectacular, but he has a little bit of rushing upside, and his offense is more capable of moving the ball ever so slightly.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Najee Harris is questionable but expected to play, with Jaylen Warren right behind him. Even if he suits up, it’s unclear if Harris will be 100%. Regardless of Harris’ status, Warren is my favorite play on the slate and my top pick in the Captain spot. I’m personally hoping that Harris plays, so it keeps his ownership in check.
The matchup isn’t good, with New England allowing the fewest yards per carry to opposing backs. However, Warren is very explosive, averaging 6.6 yards per carry compared to 3/9 for Harris. Harris usually sees more goal-line and short-yardage work, but his injury could change that, and Warren’s explosiveness may be needed tonight.
Pat Freiermuth couldn’t get much going last week, catching three of five targets for 29 yards against Arizona. It’s hard to get excited about him when he’s priced so close to Warren, especially with New England allowing the fourth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing tight ends.
DeVante Parker piques my interest with Zappe under center. He saw a 38% target share last week, with 52% of the team’s air yards. Demario Douglas is out again, which keeps Parker in line to earn volume.
Juju Smith-Schuster led the unit in route runs, with Tyquan Thornton behind Parker. I prefer Smith-Schuster, as he’s moved around the formation, as opposed to Thornton, who almost exclusively runs routes from the perimeter. Pittsburgh’s pass rush may get to Zappe quickly, giving Smith-Schuster a chance to soak up short volume. Thornton is certainly viable, but I prefer the veteran.
Hunter Henry saw four targets last week, catching two balls for 15 yards. Pittsburgh gave up 120 yards and a touchdown to Arizona tight ends last week, which gives some optimism for Henry. I prefer Parker for slightly more, but he’s certainly a red zone threat, and falling into the end zone may be all you need tonight with scoring at a premium.
Allen Robinson runs a route on about two-thirds of Pittsburgh’s dropbacks but is essentially doing cardio. He did see three targets last week, catching three balls for 19 yards. I prefer the New England pass catchers in this same price range.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Both defenses will likely be high-owned tonight, especially Pittsburgh’s. Be mindful of your roster construction if opting for kickers and defenses.
- JaMycal Hasty ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): This slate is pretty devoid of value, but Hasty will likely be active and could mix in to take some work away from Elliott. He’s the best punt option.
