NFL Fantasy Pick'ems for Bengals-Jaguars on Monday Night Football

As usual, the NFL week concludes with a Monday night affair, this time between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals playoff hopes now rest squarely on the shoulders of Jake Browning. The rookie quarterback out of Washington was efficient in his first NFL start against the Pittsburgh Steelers, completing 19 of 26 passes for 227 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Browning will need to be at his best again on Monday night to keep the Bengals in the AFC playoff conversation. Still, it probably won’t be enough to keep pace with the AFC South-leading Jags.

This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.

Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.

Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.

And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.

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Bengals-Jaguars NFL Fantasy Pick’ems

Travis Etienne Higher 16.5 Rushing Attempts and 14.5 Receiving Yards

Jacksonville operates one of the most efficient offenses in the league, churning out the 13th-most yards and 10th-most points per game. Travis Etienne has been a fundamental part of that success, serving as an every-down back and ranking as a league-leading playmaker. We should see an early-and-often approach with Etiene, helping him exceed at least a couple of his props.

Etienne has one of the heaviest workloads in the business. With his Week 13 game yet to be played, the Clemson product sits fourth in the league with 194 rushing attempts, equalling 17.6 carries per game. Moreover, Doug Pederson is getting his running back the ball religiously, with Etienne eclipsing 18 carries in seven of his 11 outings.

Running the ball isn’t the only facet of the game where Etienne shines. He’s also been a top-end pass-catching back for the Jags. The third-year pro has been targeted at least three times in every game this season, accumulating 312 yards and 36 receptions on 48 targets. Consistency has been his strength in the passing game as well, with Etienne surpassing 17 receiving yards in all but three games this year.

Inferring from the betting line, the field will likely be tilted in the Jaguars’ favor for most of tonight. Even without the lead, we’ve seen Jacksonville turn to its ground game more frequently, and Etienne is the de facto running back out of the backfield. He should have no problem surpassing 16.5 rushing attempts or 14.5 receiving yards as the Jags cruise to victory.

Trevor Lawrence Lower 3.5 Rushing Attempts

We are looking at an appealing Trevor Lawrence prop as a derivative of our first play. With Etienne taking on a monstrous role with the rushing attack, there’s been less of a need for Lawrence to get out rushing the ball. That could be even more true on Monday night, with the Jaguars projected to play with the lead for most of the contest. As such, we’re betting Lawrence sits back and lets his teammates take care of most of the rushing.

Over the past month, we’ve seen a less mobile version of Lawrence. The Jags QB has taken off running just ten times over the past four games, recording two or fewer rushing attempts in all but one of those contests. We’re expecting Lawrence to maintain the more reserved standard against the Bengals.

There are a couple of correlations that might tie into Lawrence’s decrease in rushing attempts. First, the Jags have won three of their past four, spending most of the game in front of their opponents. Consequently, there’s been less of a need for Lawrence to try and pick up yards. Second, Jacksonville is running fewer plays per game over that span, dropping from 66.7 in their first seven games to 64 over their last four.

From the outside looking in, it looks like Pederson is trying to be more deliberate with his offensive schemes, resulting in fewer rushing attempts for Lawrence. Entering as prohibitive -10 chalk, the Jaguars will be content to insulate their quarterback and hand the ball off instead.

Jake Browning Lower 20.5 Completions

All eyes will be on the Bengals as the football world tunes in to see what they can do without Burrow under center. As we saw last week, yards were hard to come by for Cincinnati, and things won’t be any easier in Browning’s first road start. According to our projections, one of the biggest edges in tonight’s contest is expecting Browning to go lower than 20.5 completions.

The Bengals offense slowed to a crawl against the Steelers. Cincinnati ran a laughable 41 plays from scrimmage, holding onto the ball for 22:43. It’s unlikely that changes at EverBank Stadium, where they will face a more hostile environment while playing under the bright lights.

Further, we shouldn’t expect Browning to replicate his 73.1% completion percentage two weeks in a row. The NFL mean completion percentage is 64.9% and it’s improbable that a backup quarterback exceeds that by a substantive margin in consecutive weeks.

The Jaguars secondary hasn’t been exceptional this season, but they should be able to shut down Browning and the Bengals attack. Cincinnati will be chasing the ball most of the night, leaving Browning fewer opportunities to surpass 20.5 completions. We’re going lower on his passing line against the Jags.

Tee Higgins Lower 43.5 Receiving Yards

We’re taking a correlated approach with our final pick, expecting Tee Higgins’ contributions to take a hit with Browning’s anticipated regression. Of course, there are a few other factors at play, supporting that Higgins falls below 43.5 receiving yards on Monday night football.

Higgins is having the worst statistical season of his career. The former second-round pick has an atrocious 52.9% catch rate, dropping his yards per target to a career-worst 6.4. Injuries have played a part in his ability to make an impact, and that could be even more pronounced coming off a three-game absence.

Chemistry is also a factor in Higgins’ lower ceiling. Although he had worked his way into Burrow’s progressions, Browning has spent most of his time working on routes with other receivers, putting Higgins behind the eight ball.

Lastly, The Bengals shortened up their passing strategies last week, focusing on short to intermediate routes and high-percentage passes to tight ends and running backs. Higgins will have fewer opportunities to stretch the field, leaving him short of 43.5 receiving yards.

This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.

Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.

Also, you can claim a $100 deposit match at Betr using Betr Picks promo code LABSMAX, and you can use Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for another $100 deposit match.

And check out our PrizePicks referral code or Underdog Fantasy promo code for more details.