A few weeks ago, this game didn’t have the appeal that it has now. The Green Bay Packers were languishing in the NFC North, with a playoff appearance seemingly out of the question. Then, the Packers rattled off wins in three of their last four to move back into postseason contention. That improved play coincides with a descent from the Kansas City Chiefs, who have lost two of their last four. With the postseason quickly approaching, neither team can afford a slip-up in Sunday night’s non-conference battle between these two playoff hopefuls.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Chiefs-Packers NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Jordan Love Higher 219.5 Passing Yards
Over the past month, Jordan Love has put his Packers teammates on his back, blossoming him into the franchise quarterback we expected him to be. He’ll have an opportunity to make the entire nation recognize that with all eyes on him Sunday night.
Love has been nothing short of sensational during the Packers’ renaissance. Over the past four games, the 2020 first-round draft pick is averaging 276.8 passing yards per game while completing 65.2% of his throws. That’s amplified the confidence Matt LaFleur has in turning to Love, with the first-year starter attempting 32 or more passes in all but one of those games, reaching the 40-passing-attempt threshold twice.
As is the case with any young quarterback, Love does his best work at home. At Lambeau Field, Love has a respectable 62.0% completion rate, over three points above his road percentage, with an average of 256.8 passing yards per game, 37.8 more than his road splits.
Granted, the Chiefs have an imposing pass defense, but they enter a hostile environment while playing their second straight road game. Love enters this one with an immense amount of momentum on his side and will have the home faithful at his back. His recent surge supports that Love should surpass 219.5 passing yards against the Chiefs.
Romeo Doubs Higher 3.0 Receptions and 34.5 Receiving Yards
Naturally, Love is going to have to find someone to throw it to, and that’s where Romeo Doubs comes in. The second-year pro has cemented himself as a top pass-catching option for the Packers, a reputation he’ll keep against the Chiefs.
Doubs’ best games came early in the season, but he’s been a beacon of consistency throughout. The Nevada Wolfpack alum has had no fewer than three targets in any game this season, leading the team with 69 targets on an 18.5% target share. Predictably, this correlates with other team-best metrics, as Doubs also leads the Packers in receptions and receiving touchdowns while sitting just 64 yards shy of Jayden Reed’s top-ranked 497 receiving yards.
Further, Doubs’ pass-catching projections are short of where we expect them to be. According to our projections, Doubs has an expected total of 38.5 yards and a mean of 44.0. That’s more in line with what we’ve seen from Doubs throughout the campaign, with the wideout averaging 39.4 receiving yards per game.
The argument against Doubs reaching his receptions and receiving yards projections is the Chiefs defense. Kansas City has one of the best secondaries in the league, but they have fallen short of that standard more recently. Hunter Renfrow and Jakobi Meyers are good comparables, and both of those receivers eclipsed their projections last week versus KC.
Doubs will quietly go about taking care of business again, exceeding his personal totals in primetime.
Travis Kelce Lower 70.5 Receiving Yards
For weeks, I’ve avoided bad Taylor Swift puns when discussing Travis Kelce, but I’m done being the better man. The Chiefs’ big man remains the preeminent tight end in the NFL, however, we’ve seen some deteriorating metrics from Kelce so far this year. Call it what you want, but Kelce isn’t dominating the league like he has in the past.
We’re not trying to be mean here, but Kelce’s fallen off. Since Week 9, the four-time All-Pro is averaging a below-average 51.8 yards per game, surpassing 58 yards in just one of those outings. Further, he faces treacherous terrain at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay has effectively corraled opposing tight ends this season. Sam LaPorta was contained to 47 yards in last week’s win, bringing opposing tight ends’ four-week total up to 105 yards. In fact, only one tight end has recorded more than 58 receiving yards, and that was T.J. Hockenson back in Week 8.
In terms of receiving yards, our fearless projections put Kelce somewhere in the low-to-mid 60s range, much lower than the 70.5 he’s catching on most platforms. But keep your eyes open on anything lower than 68.5. We’re betting Kelce isn’t the man in this one, falling below his receiving yards projection against Green Bay. You’re losing me, Kelce…
