With only six weeks left in the regular season, playoff races are moving to the forefront of NFL conversations. That’s especially true as we head into a Week 13 schedule that features several compelling matchups. The Denver Broncos and Houston Texans are neck-in-neck down the stretch, facing each other in a crucial AFC showdown which will undoubtedly factor into which teams make the playoffs. Further, there are intradivisional contests, must-win games, and a flurry of non-conference battles that will change the postseason landscape.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Week 13 NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Treylon Burks Under 26.5 Receiving Yards
It’s been a long season for Treylon Burks. The wide receiver has been in and out of the Tennessee Titans lineup all season while dealing with a spat of injuries. Burks is set to return Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, but don’t expect him to reverse course on his underwhelming campaign.
The second-year pro has only played in five games this season, and each time out he’s been an afterthought in the passing attack. Burks has eclipsed 23 receiving yards in a game just once, posting some disastrous underlying metrics. So far this season, Burks has caught eight of 18 targets for a benchable 44.4% catch rate with two drops and 3.4 yards after the catch.
Worse, there will be even fewer yards to go around against a suffocating Indianapolis Colts secondary. The Colts’ last three opponents have combined for a total of 483 passing yards, or just 161.0 per contest. That’s been their standard on the road all season, though, with Indianapolis giving up a shrewd 194.6 passing yards per game as the visitors.
Everyone is in midseason form except for Burks. The Titans receiver has been usurped on the depth chart, and Will Levis has spent the past few weeks building chemistry with other pass catchers. Although he may work his way back into a primary role, we’re not anticipating that Sunday versus a stingy Colts defense. We’re taking the under on Burks’ receiving yards projection.
Miles Sanders Higher 35.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards
It hasn’t been a seamless transition for Miles Sanders as he embraces a new role with the Carolina Panthers. An injury interrupted his early-season momentum, and when Sanders returned, he was in a more even workshare with Chuba Hubbard. Still, Sanders is a dynamic offensive presence who should have no problem eclipsing his rushing+receiving yards total against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
One of the biggest advantages to playing this projection is the benefit of straddling the best of Sanders in rushing and receiving roles. The fifth-year pro hasn’t excelled in the ground game, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, and he’ll be running into a thick Buccaneers defensive front. He’ll still manage to pick up a handful of yards, but where we expect to see Sanders shine is in the passing attack.
Not surprisingly, the Panthers head into this NFC South showdown as 3.5-point road underdogs. As they have most of the season, that could force them to lean into their aerial assault, where Sanders has been a bit of an x-factor. Although he’s fallen off more recently, the Panthers running back was targeted 23 times through the first four weeks of the season. He may not reach those heights in Week 13, but there will be room to run against a Bucs squad that has given up 78 receiving yards to opposing running backs over the last three weeks.
The safer play may be taking Sanders to go over 4.5 receiving yards, but we like to live dangerously. Combined with his rushing yards, Sanders should capture enough receiving yards to go higher than 35.5 total yards against the Bucs.
James Conner Lower 14.5 Rushing Attempts
The Arizona Cardinals will have their work cut out for them as they try to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Arizona enters the interconference showdown as 6.5-point underdogs, which could force them to abandon the ground game and turn to their passing attack against a fierce Steelers defense. Consequently, James Conner should fall below 14.5 rushing attempts at Acrisure Stadium.
Few teams have enjoyed success running the ball against the Steelers. Since Week 10, Pittsburgh has limited opponents to just 79.0 rushing yards per game on a paltry 3.7 yards per carry. That puts the Steelers near the front of the pack in both categories.
As we’ve seen all season, Arizona hasn’t had the luxury of establishing the rushing attack, negatively impacting Conner’s workload. The two-time Pro Bowler has surpassed 14 rushing attempts only once over his past six outings, as the 2-10 NFC West squad does what it can to try to stay relevant.
Moreover, Kyler Murray’s rushing abilities are also taking away from Conner’s piece of the pie, making him less of a factor in game-planning.
Better teams than the Cardinals have been unable to generate any meaningful yardage on the ground versus Pittsburgh. Conner may have opportunities in the passing game, but he will be an afterthought trying to get enough carries to eclipse his rushing attempts projection. All signs point toward fewer than 14.5 carries against the Steelers.
Tyler Allgeier Lower 32.5 Rushing Yards
Even the finest Mensa brains would have a hard time solving the equation to determine how carries will be distributed out of the Atlanta Falcons backfield. At different times this season, we’ve seen Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier deployed as primary rushers. But coming off one of his best performances of the season, Allgeier is a regression candidate in Week 13.
Last week, Allgeier looked like the version of himself that finished fifth in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in 2022. However, that has been the exception and not the rule this season, as he typically plays second fiddle to Robinson. Against the New Orleans Saints, Allgeier ran for 64 yards on 10 carries, setting a season high in yards per carry while narrowly missing out on his season-best mark of 75 yards he set way back in Week 1.
Allgeier will inevitably come back down to earth, and we’re betting that correction comes sooner rather than later. In the three games prior to Week 12’s outburst, Allgeier had been limited to a combined 101 yards, or 33.7 yards per game. Additionally, the second-year pro is down to 3.5 yards per carry on the season, illustrating the unlikelihood of replicating last week’s performance.
A diminished workload combined with less effectiveness with the ball support that Allgeier will have a hard time matching his most recent performance. We’re expecting the Falcons secondary running back to fall short of 32.5 rushing yards in this one.
Raheem Mostert Higher 11.5 Rushing Attempts
The Miami Dolphins have asserted themselves as championship contenders thanks to their prolific offense. One of the unintended consequences of constantly playing with the lead is the ability to turn things over to their running backs to offload the emphasis on their aerial assault. Raheem Mostert has taken the opportunity and ran with it (literally), and he will be the primary beneficiary again on Sunday.
Mostert is having a banner year. The 31-year-old is 30 carries and 106 yards shy of setting new career bests in rushing attempts and yards with six games left to go. Working against the Washington Commanders should help him get closer to both of those benchmarks.
The Dolphins running back has attempted 67 carries over the previous four games, with no fewer than 12 in any of those contests. Even with the return of De’Von Achane, Mostert has earned the moniker of bellcow for the Dolphins.
Sunday’s tilt is expected to play out no differently than any other Dolphins game. Miami enters the battle as prohibitive favorites, implying that the ground game will be an essential part of their strategy versus the Commanders. Mostert’s workshare is already cooked into his rushing attempts projection, but it’s still undervaluing his presence as the primary back. He should work his way north of 11.5 carries at FedEx Field.
