With an unusual schedule coming up due to the In-Season Tournament, the NBA has a jam-packed Saturday before no games on the schedule for Sunday. There are 12 games scheduled throughout the day, but two get underway earlier than the main contest on DraftKings. The main slate tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET and includes the other 10 games on the schedule. Six of the 20 teams on the main slate are on the second night of back-to-backs, so be sure to check carefully for news on their availability. The six teams playing for the second day in a row are the Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The highest implied team total on Saturday’s slate belongs to the Milwaukee Bucks in their home game against the Atlanta Hawks. The game has the highest over/under on the slate by a margin of over 10 points, so you’ll want to be sure to get exposure to this contest. Our models love Damian Lillard in this spot. He has the highest Pts/Sal and the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel.
Lillard and the Bucks are looking to bounce back from a strange loss Thursday to the short-handed Bulls. In that game, Lillard shot just 1-for-6 from long range but still saved his fantasy day by matching his season high with 13 assists to go with his 18 points.
Dame seems to be fitting in nicely with his new team. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight of his last nine games while producing 1.42 DraftKings points and 1.33 FanDuel points per minute and averaging over 50 DraftKings points per game.
On FanDuel, Lillard matches 13 Pro Trends, which is more than anyone else on the slate, and on DraftKings, he matches 11 Pro Trends, which is tied for the most on the slate.
Even though he only has the third-highest ceiling and fourth-highest median and floor projections at the position, he makes a great play on Saturday since he comes cheaper than the other elite options and should be in a great place to continue to put up big numbers. He and the Bucks will be looking to make a statement as they take on the Hawks in what could be a potential playoff preview.
Value
While it isn’t a playoff preview and doesn’t have a sky-high over/under, there are some exciting young players to check out in the Western Conference matchup between the Jazz and the Trail Blazers. Keyonte George stands out as one of the best value point guard options on the slate and brings a high ceiling in his role as a key playmaker in Utah.
The 20-year-old was the No. 16 overall pick in the NBA Draft last year and moved into the starting lineup for the Jazz 11 games ago. In those 11 games, he has a 22.1% usage rate and has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.87 FanDuel points per minute while playing 29.0 minutes per game. George has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of those 11 games.
On Saturday, he will have to shoulder more of the offensive workload with Lauri Markkanen (hamstring), Jordan Clarkson (thigh) and Kris Dunn (personal) all sidelined. With Markkanen and Clarkson off the court, he has a team-high 28.9% usage rate along with a 27.8% assist rate.
With the extra work coming his way in a favorable matchup against the Trail Blazers, George has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on FanDuel and the seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings. He is a great way to get a good ceiling without paying up for a pricier stud.
Fast Break
One of the most important situations to keep a close eye on at point guard is the Mavericks, who were without Luka Doncic on Friday following the birth of his daughter. Before the game, coach Jason Kidd said he was unsure if Doncic would return on Saturday or not. After the team’s loss, Kidd said that the team could also be without Kyrie Irving (foot) for Saturday’s matchup with the Thunder after he felt a “tweak” in his foot. With both superstar guards’ availability uncertain and a pretty good matchup against the Thunder, make sure to double-check their injury report. If Luka plays without Kyrie, he’ll be poised for a monster game since his usage would likely spike. If both guards are out, there would be a ton of usage for the rest of the team including Jayden Hardy and Seth Curry in the backcourt.
Aside from Luka and Lillard, there are plenty of elite point guard plays on the slate. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the top ceiling and median projection at the position. So far this season, he is averaging an amazing 1.59 DraftKings points and 1.58 FanDuel points per minute. The only other point guard on this slate who comes close to matching those production rates is Tyrese Haliburton of the Pacers, who had 44 points and 10 assists on Thursday in the first of two games against Miami and will be looking to post another monster stat line Saturday.
Trae Young has also been rolling for the Hawks, and they’re in that potentially high-scoring showdown with the Bucks, so he’s another play that makes sense. Donovan Mitchell and De’Aaron Fox always have extremely high ceilings are come in with good momentum after strong weeks. They are all strong plays from an absolutely loaded point guard position on Saturday.
If you don’t have the salary to pay all the way up to the top tier but still need an option with a high ceiling, Malcolm Brogdon has the second-highest Pts/Sal at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel behind only Lillard. Fred VanVleet has been excellent for the Rockets this season and is expected to return after missing one game with a thumb injury. VanVleet has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on the slate on FanDuel.
Darius Garland has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel. He and the Cavs are in a pace-up spot against the Pistons with one of the most favorable Opponents Plus/Minus numbers on the board at point guard.
D’Angelo Russell has also posted back-to-back strong games as the Lakers finished their road trip. He has produced 1.11 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute on the season and is a solid mid-range option to consider. Other mid-range plays that make sense according to our projections are Jalen Green of the Rockets, Spencer Dinwiddie of the Nets and Scoot Henderson of the Blazers.
If you’re shopping for a bargain, Craig Porter Jr. stands out on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on DraftKings. Porter has been playing more minutes lately for the Cavs and has scored double-digit points in five straight games before managing just two points in very limited minutes in Thursday’s win over the Hawks. He should have a path to playing time on Saturday though since Caris LeVert (knee) has been ruled out. In his 12 games this season, the rookie from Wichita State has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute.
Other value plays that pop in the projections include Andrew Nembhard, Cason Wallace and Jaylen Nowell.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Grizzlies have had to rely heavily on Desmond Bane early in the season with Ja Morant (suspension) sidelined and multiple key injuries. Bane has a 27.2% usage rate on the year and has produced 1.21 DraftKings points and 1.17 FanDuel points per minute.
On Saturday’s slate on DraftKings, he has the third-highest floor projection, the fourth-highest ceiling projection and the fifth-highest median projection. On FanDuel, he has the fourth-highest median and ceiling projections at the position.
Bane dropped 30 points against the Mavericks on Friday night in a good bounce-back showing after a few down games. One of those sub-par games came against the Suns, and he’ll be looking for a much better showing in this rematch in Phoenix. Both the Grizzlies and the Suns are playing on the second night of back-to-back games, so keep a close eye on the injury report. If the game looks like it will be competitive, Bane will likely have a large workload. He has shown an elite ceiling and has been a strong producer on a nightly basis.
Value
With so much usage available for the Jazz in their matchup with the Trail Blazers, Collin Sexton joins Keyonte George as one of the best value plays of the night. Sexton is in the top 10 in Projected Plus/Minus at point guard and the top 5 in Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings, and he’s third in Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel. His salary has been trending up on both sites over the past few weeks, but he is still projected to outproduce it on Saturday.
Sexton has a team-high 30.1% assist rate along with a 25.9% usage rate with both Markkanen and Clarkson off the floor this season and has produced 1.08 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute in that situation. He’s projected for 24 minutes and 26.6% usage on Saturday, so he has a great opportunity to be an excellent value.
In his last 10 games, Sexton has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel seven times with an average Plus/Minus of 2.37 FanDuel points and 1.22 DraftKings points over that span.
Fast Break
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Donovan Mitchell has the highest ceiling and median projection at shooting guard followed by Malcolm Brogdon. Mitchell is a little pricey but always brings a high ceiling. Brogdon will be on the other side of the matchup with the short-handed Jazz, but his recent production hasn’t quite lived up to his lofty salary since Portland started getting younger players back from injury.
If Kyrie Irving plays without Luka, he has a high ceiling, but he struggled in that situation on Friday. Dejounte Murray has a high ceiling, but he sometimes gets lower usage if Trae Young runs the show. Murray does have a lot of upside in the good matchup with the Bucks, though, so he’s worth a look if you aren’t ready to buy in on Bane.
Jalen Green has been excellent lately for the Rockets and was a close runner-up to Bane for my stud option selection above. He had an outstanding game on Wednesday against the Nuggets without VanVleet, finishing with 26 points, nine assists and six boards. Green has vastly exceeded salary-based expectations and scored at least 25 points in three of his last four games.
Another mid-range option that has been solid lately is Max Strus of the Cavs. He has fit in nicely next to Mitchell and Garland and provides streaky upside when his shot gets dropping. Bogdan Bogdanovic has also been putting up good numbers in a similar complementary role for the Hawks.
Malik Beasley has outproduced salary-based expectations on DraftKings in six of his last eight games and on FanDuel in seven of his last nine. His salary is up a bit, but he still is a solid mid-range option as well. Another player rising to the occasion lately has been Josh Richardson of the Heat, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games and should continue to have an expanded role since Miami will be short-handed with Bam Adebayo (hip) sidelined.
There aren’t many great bargain-value options at shooting guard. Christian Braun could be a solid option against the Kings depending on who else is available for the Nuggets. Bennedict Mathurin is a good play that is just a little more expensive and brings more upside than the other bargains. Isaiah Joe is worth a look on DraftKings, where he has an 80% Bargain Rating. Andrew Nemnbhard and Craig Porter Jr. are also good options on DraftKings, where they have extra eligibility at shooting guard in addition to their point guard position. Cason Wallace can also flex over on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
With Bam Adebayo sidelined, Jimmy Butler becomes an elite play in a great spot against the Pacers. Butler has the top ceiling projection at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the top median and floor projection on DraftKings as well. Butler has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings.
Butler and the Heat are hosting the Pacers for the second straight game in South Beach. On Thursday, Adebayo left in the second quarter, but Butler powered Miami to a 142-132 win with 36 points, 11 boards and three assists. It was Butler’s first game back after a two-game absence due to an ankle injury, but he looked healthy and is probable for Saturday’s rematch.
With Adebayo and Tyler Herro (ankle) off the floor this season, Butler has a team-high 31.0% usage rate and has produced 1.36 DraftKings points and 1.35 FanDuel points per minute. With both sidelined for this up-tempo contest with the Pacers, he should be in an excellent spot to post another big game. The game has the second-highest over/under on the slate, and the Heat have the second-highest implied team total.
Butler is an especially attractive option on FanDuel, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating and gets more rewarded for his regular defensive stat production.
Value
If he’s able to play through his questionable tag, DeMar DeRozan should be a great value play at small forward. The Bulls won without both him and Zach LaVine (ankle) on Thursday, but they’ll hopefully be able to get DeRozan back in action in their home game against the Pelicans on Saturday.
Without LaVine on the floor, DeRozan’s usage jumps 3.3 percentage points to a team-high 29.8%. His production in that scenario also jumps to 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.26 FanDuel points per minute, which is enough to make him an elite value even at his mid-range salary.
On Saturday, DeRozan is projected for 28.0% usage in 35 minutes and brings the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the seventh-highest at the position on FanDuel. He also brings extra eligibility at power forward on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The King is back in his court, and LeBron James will hope a return to crypto.com arena can help him find better form. While playing through a calf injury, he has fallen short of salary-based expectations on DraftKings in six straight games. Another star with some recent struggles is Brandon Ingram, who has had a few down games lately and is expected to have to share work with Zion Williamson, who is expected to be playing for the first time this year on the second night of a back-to-back.
If you don’t want to go with Butler, my favorite alternative is Franz Wagner, who has been carrying the Magic during their current nine-game winning streak. They’ll look to set a franchise record with a 10th straight win in Brooklyn on Saturday. Wagner has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings and the seventh-highest on FanDuel. Wagner has exceeded salary-based expectations on both sites in eight straight games by producing 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.32 FanDuel points per minute.
As a mid-range play, Jalen Williams is a great option after making his return from a three-game absence on Tuesday. He shook off the rust in that game but looked sharp, making 8-of-13 shots and scoring 21 points on Thursday against the Lakers. He’s a solid option in this matchup with the Mavs depending on whom exactly Dallas has available.
If Dallas is short-handed without Kyrie, Luka or both guards, there will be more work for Grant Williams and Josh Green. They’ll both be good value plays if they have to carry more of the offense on Saturday.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. is another strong mid-range play since he has been carrying so much of the offense for the Heat. The rookie has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in nine of his past 10 games with an Average Plus/Minus
of 4.73 DraftKings points and 4.81 FanDuel points over that span.
Kevin Huerter is another affordable option that stands out on FanDuel. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Khris Middleton is also a solid option. Simone Fontecchio has been stepping up for the Jazz while Markkanen is out, exceeding salary-based expectations in four straight games.
If you need to go cheap at small forward, the top option in the projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel is Matisse Thybulle. In fact, Thybulle has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the players at the position on DraftKings. He also has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel and the highest of all players at the position priced under $7k.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Two of the biggest names on the slate are eligible at power forward–Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Both are exceptional options to build around, but if you’re choosing between the two, our projections give Giannis a slight advantage. If Devin Booker (ankle) misses a second straight game, then KD would get a boost in usage like he did Friday against the Nuggets. He finished that game with 30 points, 11 assists and over 60 DraftKings points, so he brings a high ceiling if he’s in that scenario again on Saturday.
Giannis is in a smash spot against the Hawks. He has the highest floor, median, and ceiling projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Even though he’s the third-most expensive play on the board, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on DraftKings and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel.
Even though he’s always a pricey play, Antetokounmpo has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in four straight games and six of his last seven. In those seven games, he has produced 1.67 DraftKings points and 1.68 FanDuel points per minute on 32.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game.
With so many points projected for the Bucks-Hawks game, building around a Milwaukee stack of Dame and Giannis is a strong way to go if you can find the value you need to fit around the two superstars.
Value
On the other side of that Bucks-Hawks matchup, Saddiq Bey is a good value play to consider. He is only small forward eligible on FanDuel and only power forward eligible on DraftKings, but he brings good upside at either spot. Bey has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards priced under $6K on DraftKings, and he has a 74% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Bey has moved into the starting lineup for the Hawks since the injury to Jalen Johnson (wrist). He has played over 28 minutes in seven of his last eight games dating back to before his move to the starting lineup and has been able to exceed salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games. In those nine games, he has produced 0.89 DraftKings points and 0.88 FanDuel points per minute.
He’s projected for 32 minutes on Saturday night in Milwaukee, and he should be able to return great value in so much time in a great game environment.
Fast Break
The only power forward who matches Giannis on a Pts/Sal basis on DraftKings is Evan Mobley. Mobley and the Cavs are in a great spot against the Pistons, and he should be able to continue his breakout season. He has eight double-doubles in his last 10 games and has scored over 15 points in nine of those contests.
Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant and DeMar DeRozan could all be excellent plays as pay-up options at power forward as discussed above. Butler brings the highest Pts/Sal to the position on FanDuel. Paolo Banchero and Jerami Grant are also strong options to consider in the tier just behind the top studs. Banchero has a 96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he is an especially attractive play.
Michael Porter Jr. has helped to carry the load for the Nuggets while Jamal Murray has been out. If Murray is out again, MPJ would again be a good play. If Murray plays, the usage may not be there for him to reach his upside.
For mid-range value, John Collins is another good option from the Jazz, who have all that usage available. Cameron Johnson also brings a high ceiling for the Nets and has been able to exceed salary-based expectations in four of his last six games.
Jabari Smith Jr. has been playing well lately for the Rockets and will be in a good matchup against the Lakers. Smith exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his five most recent contests, averaging 16.4 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. He is an exciting part of the Rockets’ young core and brings high upside in L.A.
As cheap plays, Georges Niang and Toumani Camara stand out on DraftKings while Camara is joined by Drew Eubanks as the strongest cheap values on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
He isn’t one of the highest-priced options at the position, but Alperen Sengun has been delivering great numbers for Houston over the past couple of weeks. On FanDuel, he has the third-highest ceiling projection at center and the fourth-highest median and floor projections. On DraftKings, he comes in fifth in all the projections since Giannis also is eligible at center and ranks ahead of him.
The third-year center has scored 20+ points and exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in seven of his last nine games, producing 1.33 DraftKings points and 1.29 FanDuel points per minute.
During that span, he faced the Lakers and had 23 points and 10 rebounds in a one-point road loss. The Rockets also beat the Lakers earlier this season, so it should be another close game on Saturday night, and Sengun should be one of the best centers available if he plays his normal workload and continues to be so productive.
Value
For our final play, let’s go back to the Jazz one more time. Walker Kessler missed almost three weeks with an elbow injury, and he has been coming off the bench in his four games since returning. He has played over 25 minutes in each of his last three games and seems to be getting close to a return to the starting five.
Kessler exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in each of his first four games back and is delivering his elite defensive stats with multiple blocks in each of those contests. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on DraftKings and the sixth-highest on FanDuel.
Especially if he moves back into the lineup, Kessler will be a good value play, but even coming off the bench he can put up enough points in a reserve role to be worth his mid-range salary.
Fast Break
Brook Lopez has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel for his fast-paced matchup with the Hawks. I prefer Kessler’s upside, but BroLo is also a good option, especially on DraftKings where he has an 86% Bargain Rating.
If DeMar DeRozan is out again on Saturday, Nikola Vucevic will be a great play since he’ll have to absorb so much of the usage for the Bulls. Vucevic had 29 points and 10 boards to lead the Bulls past the Bucks on Thursday.
Jarrett Allen and Jalen Duren are strong midrange plays with good ceilings in favorable environments in the midrange. Allen is a little more reliable while Duren brings a higher ceiling but is also more volatile.
With Bam sidelined, Thomas Bryant will likely get the start for Miami. He hasn’t been especially productive in that role in his last few chances, while Orlando Robinson has actually put together better numbers in an expanded role off the bench. After Bam left on Thursday, neither played a ton of minutes, but they still have upside if they get minutes on Saturday. Kevin Love could also get more work, but his price has been adjusted lately, so he isn’t as much of a value.
If you’re looking for other ultra-cheap options at center, Kenrich Williams of the Thunder now has center eligibility on DraftKings and is available for under $4K. Drew Eubanks and Richaun Holmes are the top two punt plays at the position on FanDuel.
