Thursday night delivers a massive nine-game slate, including three totals over 230 points. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Trae Young at San Antonio Spurs – $9,700 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Expect a huge bounce-back performance from Young tonight after he was held in check by the Cavs on Tuesday. Young is facing a Spurs team that ranks second in pace and third-to-last in defensive efficiency. The Hawks play at the fourth fastest pace, and this clash of up-tempo squads presents the highest total on the slate at 246.5 points, which is the high mark of this nine-game slate by a large eight points, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Plus, Atlanta’s 127-point implied team total is the highest on the slate by nearly seven points.
Young has continued to see an insane role this season – he ranks second in the league in assist rate – and his role should be even larger than usual with Jalen Johnson (leg) out tonight. With the forward off the court this season, Young’s usage and assist rates have increased by 3.6 and 4.4 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.41 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. The guard had scored over 50 DraftKings in four straight starts before Tuesday and should absolutely reach that feat in this near-perfect situation tonight.
Top Value: Immanuel Quickley vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Going against a Pistons team that has lost 15 in a row and is playing their second game in two nights, Quickley has a ton of merit. Detroit ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Knicks are favored by 13.5 points for this matchup, which is good news for Quickley, who has a tendency to thrive when the Knicks win by a comfortable margin. Over the last two years, New York’s sixth man has amassed 33.7 DraftKings PPG for the 10 occasions the Knicks have been favorited by double-digit points via the Trends Tool.
Quickley has recorded at least 27 DraftKings points in seven of his past 10 games entering tonight – with a 25.9% usage rate during this 10-game span – and is a great bargain tonight, especially at only $5,300 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Terry Rozer at Brooklyn Nets – $7,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
With Rozier expected to come with single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight according to FantasyLabs’ projections, the guard is worth rolling the dice on in GPPs. LaMelo Ball (ankle) is out and just like how we saw the guard benefit when Rozier was out this season, Rozier should benefit with Ball absent going forward. We can’t expect Rozier to put up Ball type numbers consistently, but the former is going to erupt on occasions with Ball on the shelf. With the 22-year-old off the floor this season, Rozier’s usage has risen 2.8 percentage points, and his assist rate increased 4.2 percentage points.
The ex-Celtic is providing 38.8 DraftKings PPG in the 30 starts he has made without Ball over the last two seasons, and this is a decent matchup, with the Nets ranking 18th in defensive efficiency.
Top Value: Bogdan Bogdanovic at San Antonio Spurs – $6,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
Just like Young, Bogdanovic sees a notable boost with Johnson sidelined for Atlanta. With the forward inactive for the last two, Bogdanovic has responded with 33.8 DraftKings points in 30.9 minutes per game off the bench.
As noted above, the Hawks sport the highest total on the slate by a huge gap (127.5 points), and Bogdanovic is a terrific way to gain another piece of this Atlanta squad that should explode tonight.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Keldon Johnson vs. Atlanta Hawks – $7,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Johnson brings much better upside than these salaries suggest in this slate-high total vs. the Hawks (246.5 points). The forward has gone off for over 47 DraftKings points in four of his past seven starts, and this is another potential eruption spot, with Atlanta ranking fourth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency. For the six instances Johnson has competed in a total of at least 230 points this season, Johnson is averaging 39.1 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Also, due note that Victor Wembanyama (hip) is questionable tonight, and if the Spurs take the cautious approach and rest their prized possession for the first time this season, Johnson would see a huge boost and be a difficult fade. With Wembanyama off the court, Johnson’s usage jumps 4.5 percentage points, and he contributes 1.1 DraftKings PPM.
Top Value: Troy Brown Jr. vs. Utah Jazz – $4,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
Brown Jr. is an appealing punt play with Anthony Edwards (hip) doubtful. With the wing unavailable for the fourth quarter Tuesday vs. the Thunder, Brown Jr. didn’t leave the floor for the final period. Overall, the veteran finished with 21.75 DraftKings points across 21 minutes. Brown Jr. is certainly one of the top candidates to start for Edwards tonight, but even if he still comes off the bench, Brown Jr. should see 25-30 minutes, which is more than enough time for him to beat these salaries against this Jazz defense that ranks 26th in efficiency.
Brown Jr. is providing 0.8 DraftKings PPM this season and 21.5 DraftKings PPG for the two times he has cracked the 20-minute mark.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Utah Jazz – $8,800 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
At these sub $9K price tags, Towns is an elite option with Edwards (hip) doubtful. With the star off the court this season, Towns’ usage has jumped a team-high 11.2 percentage points to 38%. The center has produced 1.4 DraftKings PPM with the expanded role, and this Jazz defense Towns is facing is giving up the sixth most points in the paint.
The former Kentucky Wildcat brings the fifth highest ceiling on the slate in FantasyLabs models but is only the 12th most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Naz Reid vs. Utah Jazz – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Reid is another Minnesota player who should benefit from Edwards’ absence. With the 22-year-old only available for 28 minutes Tuesday, Reid saw 25 minutes off the bench – which is the most playing time he has seen in 12 games – and posted 31.75 DraftKings points vs. the Thunder. Reid played nearly the entire fourth quarter and should receive roughly 25 minutes on Thursday in a much better matchup vs. Utah.
Reid is collecting 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season and 34.6 DraftKings PPG for the three instances he has logged over 25 minutes, which would be an outstanding return at his current salaries.
Center
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo vs. Indiana Pacers – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Adebayo has had a terrific season, amassing 46.8 DraftKings PPG, and is in a superb spot Thursday, going against the Pacers, who lead the league in pace and rank 27th in defensive efficiency. Specifically, Indiana has been extremely susceptible inside, giving up the most points in the paint, making this a mouthwatering spot for a center like Adebayo. Via FantasyLabs Vegas page, this game’s total ranks second on the slate (238.5 points), and the Heat carry the second largest implied team total on the board (120.25 points). Both are far and away season highs for Miami.
Albeit a limited sample of two games, Adebyo has been a monster in totals of at least 225 points this season, scoring 58.4 DraftKings PPG.
Lastly, keep an eye on the status of Jimmy Butler (questionable, ankle), as his absence would make Adeabyo an even stronger play. With Butler off the court this season, Adebayo’s usage has increased 2.4 percentage points.
Top Value: Brook Lopez at Chicago Bulls – $6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
While priced more appropriately on FanDuel, Lopez is too cheap at $6,000 on DraftKings and needs to be rostered. After seeing a slightly limited workload to begin the season, the Bucks have given Lopez more playing time, with him logging over 30 minutes in eight straight games. As expected, with the veteran being a very efficient fantasy asset, Lopez has been great with the heftier workload, producing 38.25 DraftKings PPG during this stretch, including three efforts over 40 DraftKings points.
Lopez is collecting 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season, and the higher minutes should continue in this matchup with the Bulls that requires his size to defend Nikola Vucevic. The Bucks sport a large implied team total of 118 points tonight, and Lopez should beat his salary on DraftKings with ease.
