Bettors have taken a decisive approach in this Thursday night intra-conference affair. After opening as modest -3.5 favorites, the Dallas Cowboys were bought up to -9.5 versus the Seattle Seahawks. Granted, there’s been some buyback on the Seahawks since then, with most shops settling in around -8.5 to -9. Dallas deserves a lot of credit for opening the year with a sterling 8-3 record, but it’s worth noting that none of the teams they’ve beaten are above .500. That could leave an even bigger advantage in backing the Seahawks and that’s reflected in at least a couple of our picks ahead of Thursday night football.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Seahawks-Cowboys NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Geno Smith Higher 21.5 Completions and 222.5 Passing Yards
As promised, we’re leading off with a pair of Geno Smith props. As is the case with every team, the Seahawks’ chances of victory run through their starting quarterback. The reigning Comeback Player of the Year is coming off a disappointing outing against the San Francisco 49ers; however, there’s a noteworthy trend emerging from these lackluster performances.
Smith has thrown for less than 190 yards on four occasions this year, and in each of the first three instances, he’s responded with a stellar performance the next time out. On average, the Seahawks QB has thrown for 341.0 yards following a sub-optimal performance, completing no fewer than 27 passes in each of those contests.
Moreover, the Washington Commanders revealed some unsuspecting cracks in the Cowboys’ secondary. Last week, Sam Howell threw for 300 yards, completing 28-of-44 pass attempts and leaving Smith the blueprint on how to beat Dallas’ pass coverage. Five different Commanders’ pass-catchers had at least 27 yards, and the Seahawks have a stable of playmakers to incorporate into the game-planning.
Smith has responded well following a bad game this year, a trend we expect to continue in Week 13. The Cowboys secondary looks worse when adjusted for the opponent, and Smith should have no problem replicating Howell’s performance from Thanksgiving. We’re taking a firm stance on Smith going higher than 21.5 completions and 222.5 passing yards.
Noah Fant Higher 10.5 Receiving Yards
Our next pick loosely correlates with Smith’s prop. As alluded, Smith can distribute the ball to several playmakers on the Seahawks offense. Noah Fant has taken a backseat to some other Seattle pass-catchers this season, but we expect him to surpass his modest receiving yard prop, if not shine, against the Cowboys.
There are a few factors to consider with respect to Fant’s anticipated progression on Thursday night. First, his workload is increasing. After playing less than 50.0% of snaps in four of his first five games, the Seahawks tight end has exceeded 59.0% in five of his last six. Additionally, he’s had multiple receptions in three of his previous five. Secondly, Fant is getting further downfield on those targets. His yards per reception is up to 13.7, the highest it’s been since his rookie campaign, while setting a new benchmark with 10.9 yards per target.
Lastly, opposing tight ends are finding holes in the Cowboys’ coverage. Cole Turner and Logan Thomas both had 15 or more receiving yards last week, becoming the eighth tight ends over the last six weeks to accomplish the feat.
Fant could just need one reception to eclipse his modest total. We’re betting that’s the case at AT&T Stadium. Dallas hasn’t been effective at corraling tight ends, and Fant’s underlying metrics support that he’s due for increased productivity. There’s a substantive edge in backing Fant to go north of 10.5 receiving yards.
Tony Pollard Higher 20.5 Receiving Yards
The Cowboys’ confidence in not re-signing Ezekiel Elliott this past offseason makes a lot more sense now that we’ve seen everything Tony Pollard has to offer as a lead back. The fifth-year pro is thriving in the Cowboys offense, fulfilling his role as an every-down back and being a catalyst on offense. We’ve seen his role grow as the season progresses, with Pollard taking on a more prominent role in the passing game, a trend we expect to continue on TNF.
Dak Prescott is looking at Pollard’s way a lot more frequently these days. The Cowboys running back has five or more targets in three of his last five games, highlighting his emergence as a pass-catching back. Over that stretch, Pollard has hauled in 13 of 16 throws for an impressive 81.3% catch rate for 55 yards. Pollard should be able to maintain those metrics against a Seattle side that consistently loses sight of running backs in the passing game.
Opposing running backs have accumulated at least 25 receiving yards against the Seahawks in three straight. Brian Robinson set the high mark back in Week 10, going off for 119 yards and a score, but all three running backs have combined for a 78.9% catch rate over that stretch.
Pollard is coming off a solid 24-receiving yard performance, but that might be the low end of the spectrum against a woeful Seahawks pass defense. Seattle ranks in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed, with running backs accounting for a hefty portion of those yards. Pollard’s rise continues as he surpasses 22.5 receiving yards versus the Seahawks.
Dak Prescott Lower 3.5 Rushing Attempts
We’re looking at Dak Prescott’s way with our final prop of the day. The Walter Payton Man of the Year has embraced his pocket presence this season, running less often than nearly any other time in his career. He’ll have a hard time bucking that trend against a Seattle rush defense that is playing the best it has all season.
Prescott has been content to let it rip from the pocket lately. The Mississippi State product has totaled just five rush attempts over the last three games, dropping his per-game average to 3.1 rush attempts. But standing pat has been his MO for most of the season. Prescott has attempted more than three rush attempts on just four occasions this season, which is equal to the number of occasions he’s carried the ball just once in a game.
He’ll have a hard time moving the ball against a fierce Seahawks defensive front. Seatle has held two of its previous three opponents to 82 or fewer rushing yards. Across that span, all three quarterbacks have combined for just 19 rushing yards on seven carries, leaving Prescott nowhere to go on Thursday night.
Circumstances dictate that Prescott should fall below his rushing attempts prop. The Cowboys quarterback is taking off less frequently this year and will have fewer opportunities to run against the Seahawks. Further, if Dallas is leading as much as the point spread implies, there will be no need for Prescott to escape the pocket and make himself vulnerable.
We’re playing our edge and going beneath 3.5 rush attempts.
