Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
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The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New Orleans Saints DL
For the second week in a row, the Lions have the top offensive line matchups on the board. Last week, they somewhat surprisingly struggled against the Packers pass rush, but Jared Goff ($6,500) was still able to score 24.18 DraftKings points, a very solid day at his salary.
This week, they take on a Saints team that ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate and 21st in adjusted line lards on defense, both well below the Packers’ middle of the pack rankings in each category. That should help Goff and the passing attack, as he’s one of the most pressure-sensitive quarterbacks in the league.
While this is a road game — which is typically worse for Goff — it’s in a dome in New Orleans. Most of Goff’s splits are due to struggles in cold weather, which shouldn’t be an issue here.
Of course, the Lions running game is in play here as well. They seem to have settled on giving David Montgomery ($6,500) most of the base-down work in positive game scripts while relying on Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,700) when trailing. Detroit is favored here, but the obvious implication is to correlate Lions backs around other pieces in this game.
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Pittsburgh Steelers OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #6 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Arizona Cardinals DL
After firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers dialed up 28 carries between Najee Harris ($5,200) and Jaylen Warren ($5,400) last week. That was against a Bengals front that ranks 28th in adjusted line yards — while the Cardinals rank 31st.
We should see a similar approach from Pittsburgh, especially considering they’re favored by 5.5 points heading into the game. Both backs should see enough work to pay off their Week 13 salaries, with Harris getting a few more carries and Warren seeing a few more targets.
There’s an argument to be made for playing them both together, given the strength of the matchup. Both players likely need a touchdown to return strong value — but they could both score against the Cardinals.
Los Angeles Chargers OL (#16 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New England Patriots DL
The Chargers are a bit of a conundrum in Week 13. The matchup sets up much better for Justin Herbert ($8,000) and the passing attack, but the game script should tilt the Chargers toward the run. On the flip side, New England has been much better at defending the run this season.
Either way, the passing attack should get theirs at some point in this matchup, which primarily means Herbert throwing to Keenan Allen ($9,000). With that said, plentiful time in the pocket helps deep-ball specialists like Quentin Johnston ($4,000) and Jaylen Guyton ($3,300) get down the field.
Given their cheap price tags, my primary takeaway here is that it might be worth it to take some swings at secondary Chargers receivers. With the Patriots’ terrible offense on the other side of the ball, it wouldn’t make sense for the Chargers to lean too heavily on Allen and Austin Ekeler ($8,300), creating opportunities for secondary options to shine.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Miami DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Washington Commanders OL
“Defense vs. the Commanders” typically checks in as the top unit, almost regardless of who they’re playing. That’s because Washington has the double whammy of both being horrible at pass protection and throwing the ball a ton. They rank 31st in adjusted sack rate and third in Pass Rate Over Expectation on the season.
That makes Miami ($3,900) an easy top option if you can find the salary. The Dolphins offense should turn this into a negative game script for Washington from the start. That leaves plenty of chances for the Dolphins’ top-10 pass rush to get home.
While they’re pricey, that should hopefully keep ownership at a reasonable level, making them an excellent GPP choice.
San Francisco 49ers DL (#9 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Philadelphia Eagles OL
While obvious value defenses seem to be a thing of the past on DraftKings, San Francisco ($3,000) seems to be the top option at $3,000 or below. They have a strength-on-strength matchup with the Eagles, as both the 49ers’ pass rush and the Eagles’ pass blocking are well above average.
However, the reputation of the Eagles line exceeds their performance this year, with Philadelphia ranking 22nd in adjusted sack rate. Part of that is due to Jalen Hurts ($8,200) trying to extend plays with his legs, but San Francisco should be able to get some pressure on him this week. It’s not the most comfortable play, but we don’t have a ton of cheap options that project well this week.
