In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Russell Wilson
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
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Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-9.5) at Washington Commanders (49.5 total)
Tua Tagovailoa was in the giving spirit on Black Friday, throwing two interceptions to the Jets defense and losing a fumble. It was his lowest output of the season, with just 10.82 DraftKings points in Miami’s 34-13 victory.
Last week and this week’s matchups couldn’t be more different. New York has allowed the sixth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, while Washington has allowed the most. Their defense is trending in the wrong direction, as their pressure rate has been abysmal since the departures of Montez Sweat and Chase Young.
Washington has allowed the highest touchdown rate and third-highest yards per attempt to opposing signal callers. This is about as good of a spot as any, and Tagovailoa commands the most explosive offense in the NFL.
He’s the top option in our Tournament Model this week.
Russell Wilson ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Denver Broncos (+3) at Houston Texans (47.5 total)
Mr. Unlimited and the Broncos cruised to their fifth-straight win last week with a 29-12 drubbing of the Browns. Russell Wilson gets a plus matchup here, as Houston has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks.
One of the issues with Wilson’s outlook is his volume. When Denver is winning or in close games, they’re more than comfortable leaning on the run and taking the air out of the ball. Just once in the past six games has Wilson eclipsed 30 pass attempts.
Regardless, Wilson is cheap and has an exploitable matchup in a great game environment. He leads the position in Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus and is the top quarterback in our Cash Game Model, as well as Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (48 total)
Jalen Hurts‘ monster fantasy season continued last week against Buffalo, throwing for three touchdowns and running for two en route to 36.5 DraftKings points. He’s failed to top 20 DraftKings points just once since Week 1, totaling 19.9 two weeks ago against Kansas City.
San Francisco is a difficult matchup, as they’ve allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year. Hurts is a different animal, though, as his touchdown equity on the ground trumps whatever difficulties the matchup through the air may entail.
Brock Purdy ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (48 total)
I’m bullish on San Francisco in this spot as a whole, and I’ve been attacking this Eagles defense in DFS as of late, Hence my interest in Brock Purdy. Purdy didn’t get much going on Thanksgiving, totaling just 11.46 DraftKings points against Seattle. He was fresh off a nice stretch of 24.3, 23.84, and 29.72 points in the three games prior to Turkey Day.
Philadelphia has allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year, and Purdy leads one of the most efficient offenses in the league. If San Francisco decides to lean on the pass as most teams do against Philadelphia, Purdy may be in for a big day,
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My Favorite NFL DFS Quarterback Leverage Pick(s)
Sam Howell ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Washington Commanders (+9.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (48.5 total)
I wouldn’t be surprised if his ownership crept up similar to Josh Allen’s last week, but frankly, I don’t care. Sam Howell is my favorite quarterback option by a wide margin this week. Howell has topped 20 DraftKings points in five straight games, and he’s been absolutely chucking it, with 44 pass attempts in all five.
They’re nearly double-digit underdogs this week, and with Miami likely to move the ball at will, Washington will surely need to throw the ball to keep up.
Howell has rushed equity, too, and has flashed upside to smash this price tag. This game environment is very appealing, but the Miami side is fairly expensive. In order for this game to hit its ceiling, Washington needs to keep up, and with Howell’s cheap tag, if they’re to keep up, he’ll almost certainly smash.
He’s my top quarterback with ease this week.
