The NBA has eight games on the schedule for Tuesday which is the last day of Group Stage play for the in-season tournament as well. There are several spots in the quarterfinals next Monday and Tuesday still up for grabs in addition to the typical regular season drama. It’s also a great slate for DFS fantasy basketball.
With eight games to consider, there are definitely several spots to avoid and several that could be smash spots. None of the teams are playing for the second day in a row and only the Rockets, Kings and Raptors have to turn around and play again on Wednesday.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
There are a lot of great point guard options on Tuesday’s slate, including some of the biggest names in the NBA. Of all of them, though, the stud that is projected for the best return on investment is Fred VanVleet of the Rockets. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, FVV has the highest Pts/Sal of all point guards on the slate and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
VanVleet is much more affordable than the big-name plays and only has the 11th-highest salary at point guard on FanDuel and the 12th-highest on DraftKings. Still, he ranks in the top six in both median and ceiling projections on both sites. He looks like he’ll be able to return great value at his salary while still leaving you plenty to spend at other spots.
In his 14 games since joining the Rockets as a free agent, VanVleet has averaged 39.1 DraftKings points and 36.9 FanDuel points in 37.2 minutes per game. He has four double-doubles in his last five games and has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in four of those five games and all five of them on FanDuel.
The Rockets scored one of the biggest upsets in the in-season tournament last Friday by knocking off the Nuggets, and if they beat Dallas in Tuesday’s matchup, they’ll advance to the quarterfinals. VanVleet and his squad haven’t played since that big win, so they should be well-rested and ready to roll for this matchup with the Mavs. It’s a good pace-up spot for Houston since the Mavs rank seventh in the NBA in pace, giving Houston a slate-best 4.3 pace differential.
In a good matchup with some extra on the line, VanVleet should be a good way to avoid paying all the way up for a top point guard but still get strong production from the position. He matches 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, tied for the most at the position, and 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel as well.
Value
Coming off the bench for the Kings, Malik Monk has gotten off to a strong start to his seventh year in the NBA. He is averaging 1.12 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute, and he is projected to be one of the best value plays on the board for Tuesday. Monk has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on FanDuel and the sixth-highest on DraftKings.
Monk and the Kings have the second-highest implied team total on our Vegas Dashboard in the game with the highest over/under as they host the Warriors. Monk’s salary just dipped on FanDuel, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating. He is projected for 25 minutes on Tuesday with a healthy 23.8% usage rate.
He has scored double-digit points in seven of his last nine games and added at least five assists in six of those contests as well. He helped carry the offensive workload while De’Aaron Fox was sidelined but has stayed involved enough even after Fox’s return to be a strong value play on Tuesday’s slate.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at point guard on DraftKings and the highest ceiling projection of any player on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has that super-high ceiling in a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Rockets. He’s a very expensive option with the highest salary on both sites, but he has the ceiling to match if you can afford his massive price tag.
The same summary applies to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has a higher median projection on FanDuel than any other player on the slate, even Luka. He has the second-highest ceiling projection on the entire slate on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. SGA has scored over 30 points in three of his last four games, including a pair of 40-point performances. He should be in a good spot to stay hot against the Timberwolves in a great matchup in Minnesota.
The Cavaliers have the highest implied team total on the slate, so both Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell have the potential to go off and turn in huge games. Garland has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel. He looks to be the better value of the two plays, although Mitchell always has a high ceiling.
Another point guard duo in a great spot on Monday is Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickley, as the Knicks host the Hornets. Brunson has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings, while Quickley is just behind him on DraftKings in the fifth spot.
Other midrange plays to consider in addition to Quickley of the Knicks are Dennis Schroder of the Raptors, Kyle Lowry of the Heat, and Mike Conley of the Timberwolves.
With Jrue Holiday (ankle) questionable after missing the last two games for the Celtics, Derrick White could be a solid midrange play as well after posting an impressive 15 points and 11 assists in Sunday’s win over the Hawks. If Holiday is out, White becomes a strong play.
If you opt to spend down at point guard, Gary Trent Jr. and Shake Milton are the top two bargains in our projections on DraftKings. On FanDuel, the best bargain plays are projected to be Aaron Holiday, Isaiah Joe, Payton Pritchard (without Holiday), and Milton.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
One of the biggest expected absences of Tuesday’s slate is LaMelo Ball (ankle), who was listed as doubtful after getting tangled up with Paolo Banchero on Sunday. Ball’s X-rays were negative, and the hope is that he avoided major injury, but it looks like he’ll at least miss this trip to Madison Square Garden. The timing is not horrible for the Hornets since they just got reinforcements. Terry Rozier just returned from missing nine games with a groin injury, and he’ll have to step into a large role for as long as Ball is on the shelf.
Despite the extended layoff, Rozier didn’t look rusty at all on Sunday. He logged 37 minutes against the Magic and posted an impressive 22 points and nine assists. He vastly exceeded salary-based expectations and improved his production rates on the season to 1.02 DraftKings points and 0.99 FanDuel points per minute. He has been limited to just six games this season but has been productive when available, posting at least 20 points per game in each of his six contests.
He’ll likely take over as the primary ball-handler and creator with Ball out and brings a very high ceiling from his relatively affordable price point. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and the third-highest of all point guards on DraftKings. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive but matches a slate-high 13 Pro Trends and ranks in the top seven in Projected Plus/Minus at both shooting guard and point guard.
Value
A big part of the Rockets’ resurgence this season has been the improved play of Jalen Green, who always gets plenty of volume, which gives him both a high ceiling and a high floor. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel behind Malik Monk (discussed above) and Gordon Hayward (discussed below).
Green has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his last nine games and six of those games on DraftKings. He is coming off back-to-back strong performances, with 34 points against the Grizzlies last Wednesday and 25 points in the Rockets’ big win over the Nuggets last Friday.
So far this season, the third-year guard leads the team with a 28.6% usage rate and has averaged 1.0 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points per minute. He has had a few ups and downs, but he brings a high ceiling from his midrange salary, especially in this game where the Rockets should go all-out to earn their way into the quarterfinals.
Fast Break
At point guard, I didn’t highlight the top pure ceiling play at shooting guard. Donovan Mitchell gets that honor on both DraftKings and FanDuel, followed closely by Anthony Edwards and Kyrie Irving. All three of those options are great plays if you can afford the expense of building around them. Of the three, my favorite option is Edwards, who is somewhat quietly putting together MVP-like numbers for the Timberwolves. He’s one of my favorite options to build around regularly and is a strong option in a great matchup in OKC.
Jaylen Brown is also a strong play from this top price range, especially if he has to play more of a playmaker role with Holiday out. If Holiday plays, Brown will be able to slide more off the ball to his more natural scoring role, which makes him more boom-or-bust but also raises his ceiling.
Zach LaVine is playing through some knee soreness, but he keeps putting up plenty of points. He had 36 points last Friday and 20 more on Sunday despite being listed as questionable heading into the game, which he is again for Tuesday’s matchup with Brown and the Celtics. He always brings a high ceiling since he can pile up points in a hurry.
For the Nets, Spencer Dinwiddie has had a nice few games, exceeding salary-based expectations on FanDuel in five of his last seven games. He is definitely the team’s top playmaker, and as the starters around him get healthy, his assist numbers should continue to trend up.
For midrange plays, Malik Monk and Immanuel Quickley (discussed above) make sense at this spot, in addition to Kevin Huerter of the Kings, OG Anunoby of the Raptors, and Max Strus of the Cavs.
Another strong midrange play at shooting guard and small forward is Bogdan Bogdanovic, who has been thriving coming off the bench for the Hawks. Bogdanovic has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel with an Average Plus/Minus of 4.59 DraftKings points and 4.93 FanDuel points. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and the second-highest at small forward on DraftKings.
There are a few more bargains at shooting guard than at point guard, based on Projected Plus/Minus. The best options under $5K on FanDuel are Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dillon Brooks. On DraftKings, the best bargain values are projected to be NAW and Gary Trent Jr., in addition to Troy Brown Jr. and Jae’Sean Tate.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jayson Tatum has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward by a wide margin. He is the most expensive small forward on both sites, but he has the second-highest Pts/Sal on DraftKings and a positive Projected Plus/Minus on both sites, indicating that he may very well be worth spending up to build around.
Tatum was just one rebound short of a double-double on Sunday, which would have been his third in his last four games, and he poured in 34 points to lead the team to a win over the Hawks even though they were without Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis (calf). Holiday may be able to return, but Porzingis will remain sidelined for this matchup with the Bulls.
With Porzingis off the floor this season, Tatum has gotten a usage bump of 3.8 percentage points to a team-high 34.6%. Without Porzingis, Tatum has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.30 FanDuel points per minute. When Holiday was off the court as well, Tatum’s production increased to 1.39 DraftKings points and 1.33 FanDuel points per minute.
This will be the first time this season the Celtics have faced the Bulls, but Tatum had over 25 points in all four meetings last season and over 30 points both times he faced them at TD Garden. With more work and a good matchup, it may be a feast night on Taco Tuesday for “Taco Jay.”
Value
The highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel by a wide margin belongs to Tatum’s former teammate, Gordon Hayward. Hayward has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points and 0.94 FanDuel points per minute in his first 14 games this season. He is playing 32.4 minutes per game with a 19.4% usage rate, but he’s projected for 35.6 minutes with a 21.8% Usage rate on Tuesday since Ball is expected to be sidelined. When Ball is off the floor, Hayward’s usage rate has climbed to 25.2%.
Hayward is a better deal on FanDuel than on DraftKings, as indicated by his 96% Bargain Rating, but he can be an option on both sites. He is eligible at small forward on both sites, with additional shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel and power forward eligibility on DraftKings. If you don’t want to spend up to $6,500 on DraftKings for him, Bogdan Bogdanovic (discussed above under shooting guard) is a great alternative.
Fast Break
Although there’s a wide gap between Tatum and the rest of the field at small forward, Miles Bridges and Scottie Barnes bring some of the next-best projections at the position. Bridges will also get some extra work with Ball, who is expected to be sidelined while Barnes continues to carry the load for the Raptors. Barnes will go up against Mikal Bridges (no relation to Miles), who has also been putting up good numbers for the Nets.
DeMar DeRozan would be an elite play at the position if Zach LaVine (knee) is sidelined, but so far LaVine has been able to play through the issue.
Jimmy Butler (ankle) is questionable after missing Saturday’s loss to Brooklyn and also missed practice on Monday. His availability definitely makes a huge difference to the Heat against the Bucks, so keep an eye out for news regarding his status as the day goes on.
If Butler is out again, rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. could get another chance to shine. He had 18 points starting in Butler’s place on Saturday and has scored double-digit points nine times in his last 10 games and exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of those 10 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’ll be an excellent value play if Butler is out and could even be worth a look if Butler can play since he has emerged as such a key part of the latest version of “Heat Culture.”
R.J. Barrett has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and highest Pts/Sal of all small forwards on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel. He has been struggling a little bit since returning from migraines, but our projections indicate this could be a great bounce-back spot for him against the Hornets.
In addition to Hayward and Rozier, rookie Brandon Miller should get more work without Ball, and he brings one of the best Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at small forward as a result.
With Keegan Murray (back) listed as doubtful against the Warriors, Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes also make a lot of sense as mid-range plays from the Kings.
If you’re looking to go even cheaper at the position, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dillon Brooks, and Troy Brown Jr. project as the top bargains on DraftKings. On FanDuel, they’re joined by Andrew Wiggins, who is still under $5K and eligible at both forward spots.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Cavs typically play at a pretty slow pace, but they’re in what should be an up-tempo contest against the Hawks on Tuesday. As a result, they have the highest implied team total and the fourth-highest pace differential. Atlanta not only plays fast, but they have also been very beatable by opposing power forwards, which should set up very nicely for Evan Mobley.
Mobley has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind only Domantas Sabonis (discussed below). Mobley also has the highest Pts/Sal on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind Sabonis.
In his third NBA season, Mobley has started to live up to his pedigree as the No. 3 overall pick from the 2021 NBA Draft. He has produced 1.17 DraftKings points and 1.14 FanDuel points per minute on the season and has outperformed salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has double-digit rebounds in seven of his last eight games and has averaged 16.5 points to go with his 10.75 rebounds per game over that span.
While he’s barely priced in the top 10 at the position, he brings a great ceiling and good form to a good game environment, making him a strong option to consider on Tuesday.
Value
Cameron Johnson has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on DraftKings and the highest of all power forwards under $6,500 on FanDuel. He was forced to leave Sunday’s game with leg cramps but is considered probable for this matchup. As long as those aren’t more of an issue than expected, he should be a good value play in this contest.
Johnson had 10 points, six assists, and four rebounds in his 22 minutes before leaving, which looks like a down game until you realize what happened. In the previous game, he had a 19-point, 10-rebound double-double against the Heat, and he also had over 40 fantasy points in his previous contest with a 23-point game against the Hawks.
Throughout his career, Johnson has been a little streaky and volatile, but he has been heating up lately and should be able to outproduce expectations in this matchup with the Raptors as long as his leg isn’t an issue.
Fast Break
Giannis Antetokounmpo is always hard to fade, but our projections say this isn’t a great spot for him in Miami against the Heat. He’s very expensive and not as highly projected as the other top salaries on the board. That being said, every spot can be a smash spot for Giannis, so maybe his lower expectations actually make him a good chance for some leverage.
In the Knicks’ pace-up matchup with the Hornets, Julius Randle has the third-highest median and ceiling projections at the position on DraftKings and fourth-highest on FanDuel. He’s behind only Tatum, Giannis, and Sabonis (on FanDuel). He’s a strong alternative to Mobley but doesn’t have quite the same value potential.
Karl-Anthony Towns should be in a favorable spot against the Thunder as he looks to bounce back from a down game against the Grizzlies. Since the game turned into a laugher, he didn’t have to play his usual workload, but before that contest, he had exceeded salary-based expectations in six of eight games.
As discussed above, DeMar DeRozan is definitely worth watching in this spot as well, depending on the availability of LaVine. Gordon Hayward can be an option in this spot on DraftKings.
If you’re looking for cheaper plays than Johnson at the position, things get pretty thin quickly. Al Horford should get more work with Porzingis out, but has been low-volume for most of this season. Saddiq Bey could get a chance to step up with Jalen Johnson (wrist) sidelined and has flashed a high ceiling in some of his games with a heavier workload.
Jalen Williams is expected to return for the Thunder and is a solid option with a high ceiling. He’s eligible at power forward on DraftKings but at shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel. Since it’s his first game back, he’ll be a little higher risk than normal.
If you are looking for ultra-cheap plays, Trey Lyles stands out at just $4K on FanDuel since he will likely help fill in for Keegan Murray. On DraftKings, Grant Williams projects well at just $4K along with potential bargain value from Naz Reid and Georges Niang.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Of all the players on the entire slate, Domantas Sabonis brings the highest median and floor projections on DraftKings and the second-highest ceiling projection. On FanDuel, he brings the second-highest median projection and the third-highest ceiling projection. The reason this is especially exceptional is that he isn’t priced anywhere near the other players he projects close to. He is only $9,900 on FanDuel, where five players are priced over $10K, including three over $11K. On DraftKings, he is the fifth-most expensive option but still offers over $1K in savings over Luka and Giannis.
Sabonis has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the players on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. Playing him instead of one of the other elite options leaves you substantially more salary to get stars in other spots, making him my top pay-up play of the day.
Recently, Sabonis has been rolling. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and has produced 1.46 DraftKings points and 1.40 FanDuel points per minute, with a 23.9% usage rate over that span.
He had 19 points, 18 rebounds, and seven assists in his first matchup with the Warriors this season, and he posted 23 points, 11 boards, and eight assists in the rematch. Even with Draymond Green expected to return from his suspension on Tuesday, Sabonis should be able to dominate against the Warriors.
If the Kings win against the Warriors, they will win West Group C and advance in the in-season tournament. For a team looking to make a turnaround, it could be a great step forward.
Value
Against the twin towers of the Cavs, Clint Capela will likely have to play big minutes for the Hawks on Tuesday. He has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at the position and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He has a +7.2 Opponents Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a +6.7 Opponents Plus/Minus on DraftKings, which is the highest of all centers on the slate on both sites.
He has shown a high ceiling this season but has also posted a few down games while Onyeka Okongowu has stepped up. Based on this matchup, I agree with our projections that Capela will end up shouldering more of the load and bring a very strong ceiling for a mid-range priced center.
Fast Break
If you’re riding a Rockets stack and shooting for the moon on Tuesday, Alperen Sengun looks like he’ll be in. a great spot. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on DraftKings and FanDuel. Sengun is coming off a beautiful 21-point, 15-rebound double-double against the Nuggets and has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you can’t spend up to Sabonis, Sengun is a great alternative.
Nikola Vucevic will try to take advantage of the absence of Kristaps Porzingis in his trip to Boston on Tuesday, and he could get more work if LaVine ends up sitting out. Julius Randle is also a strong play to consider on DraftKings, where he can slide to center. If Jimmy Butler sits, Bam Adebayo may be asked to shoulder a bigger workload in his return, but he’ll have a tough matchup against the Bucks.
I’d stay away from Draymond Green in his return, but he does bring a good ceiling if he comes back at full strength. Other midrange plays that make sense include Al Horford, Rudy Gobert, and Jarrett Allen.
Mark Williams has been playing well for the Hornets, but he will have a tough matchup with Mitchell Robinson in the Garden. Robinson may actually be the better play on a per-dollar basis, but he is always a boom-or-bust option.
If you are punting your center spot to stock up on guards or forwards, Kevin Love has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of centers under $5,000 on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Andre Drummond is only $3,300 and has been able to get enough boards to be a decent value option off the bench for the Bulls.
