The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Minnesota Timberwolves – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
It’s a difficult decision at the top of the point guard position with Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The latter gets a slide edge as he is $1,100 cheaper on DraftKings, which is resulting in an 88% Bargain Rating. Gilgeous-Alexander is also cheaper on FanDuel, but the gap between these two stars isn’t nearly as much. Gilgeous-Alexander has picked up right where he left off last season, averaging over 30 points per game while posting a career-high in both rebounds and assists.
Going into tonight, the Thunder and Timberwolves are shockingly the top two teams in the Western Conference. Another interesting nugget is the Thunder are a league-best 6-1 on the road this season. Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting a ridiculous 57.1% from the field and 48% from downtown in those seven road games. Prioritize him on DraftKings at his $10,500 salary.
Top Value: Fred VanVleet at Dallas Mavericks – $8,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Looking at value, Fred VanVleet may not be the cheapest player to target, but he does lead the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel with the highest Projected Plus/Minus. In his first season with the Rockets, the veteran VanVleet has taken on a Chris Paul-like role as his scoring is down, but he is averaging a career-high nine assists per game. VanVleet has posted a double-double with points and assists in four of his last five games and has a double-double in half of his games this year.
Opposite of the Thunder, the Rockets have yet to win a road game this season with an 0-5 record. However, they are only 4.5-point road underdogs against the Mavericks tonight. This is an exploitable matchup for VanVleet as the Mavericks rank 25th in defensive rating and seventh in pace. Prioritize VanVleet on FanDuel with his slate-high 45% projected ownership.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Atlanta Hawks – $9,200 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
Another choose your fighter situation at the top of the shooting guard position tonight with Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards. Both players are coming in with around 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel and are priced nearly identical. Mitchell edges out Edwards for the top spot as he has the highest projected ceiling and is in a matchup against the Hawks with the highest game total on the slate at 238.5 points. The Cavaliers are four-point favorites, implied for 122 points.
The Cavaliers are fully healthy now, which does limit Mitchell’s upside a little bit. However, he is still leading the team in scoring with 27 points per game and has a 31.1% usage rate. Mitchell is averaging a career-high 20.9 field goal attempts per game. The Hawks rank third in pace and 24th in defensive rating, making this a great spot to get exposure to Mitchell.
Top Value: Malik Monk vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,600 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
There are a few value shooting guards that are popping in our NBA Tournament Model tonight, but Malik Monk looks like the best option. Monk’s FanDuel salary of $5,100 is impossible to ignore as he has a 93% Bargain Rating in what should be a great matchup for him against the Warriors. Coming off the bench and leading the Kings’ second unit is the best thing for Monk is second on the team with a 24.8% usage rate. He is averaging 13.2 points and a career-high five assists per game.
The Kings are 2.5-point home favorites against the Warriors, implied for nearly 120 points. Monk has shown a boom or bust tendency, but he is a cheap way to get exposure to this electric game environment. Despite being prioritized in tournaments only with his varying fantasy scores, Monk is certainly not a secret on FanDuel, with nearly 40% projected ownership.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Chicago Bulls – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Jayson Tatum stands alone atop the small forward position as he is a tough price point to get to, which is resulting in very low ownership across the industry. However, he will get the luxury of playing without Kristaps Porzingis and potentially Jrue Holiday who is questionable and could miss his third-straight game. With Porzingis off the floor this season, Tatum is averaging a +3.87% usage rate. In the two games without Porzingis, he has seen his scoring rise to 31.5 points per game.
The Bulls are declining rapidly as they have yet to win a game on this road trip and have a 5-13 overall record. They rank 23rd in net rating and are playing at a league-low 96.36 Pace. Despite not having potentially two starters, the Celtics are 13.5-point home favorites in this spot.
Tatum is a great way to get a different lineup, as he is a contrarian pay-up option.
Top Value: Gordon Hayward at New York Knicks – $6,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
With LaMelo Ball doubtful to play with an ankle injury, the Hornets will need to find alternative options to score the ball. Gordon Hayward can help fill the void as there is a lot of production and usage rate to go around if Ball misses. Make sure to monitor Ball’s status, as if he somehow suits up; Hayward doesn’t look nearly as good. However, with Ball off the floor this season, Hayward has seen a +3.63% usage rate. He is another value that looks better on FanDuel with 11 Pro Trends.
The Knicks are one of the best interior defenses in the league but can be beaten on the perimeter. In his two games against the Knicks, Ball averaged 31 points per game and shot 12 for 21 from behind the arc. Hayward has a chance to get a ton of open looks as the Knicks continue to pack the paint. Prioritize Hayward on FanDuel, as he is projected for 35% ownership.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Miami Heat – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
After a relatively mediocre start to the year, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dialed in lately, averaging 33.4 points, 13.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 64.1 DraftKings points per game in his last five games. Over that time, Giannis is shooting 61.5% from the field with nine steals and five blocks. His salary has risen across the industry with how stellar he has been recently.
Giannis will get a difficult interior matchup against the Miami Heat frontcourt which has caused him fits in the past. The Heat rank 25th in Pace this season, and rank inside the top 10 in both defensive rating and points allowed in the paint with 46.6 per game. The matchup and high price tag is resulting in very low projected ownership for Giannis on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With the lack of stud forward and center options on this slate, Giannis is worth getting exposure to in tournaments.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson vs. Toronto Raptors – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Given the Nets’ injury situation, Cameron Johnson has stepped up in a big way. He left the last game with leg cramps but is likely to play tonight. However, Ben Simmons is out, while Cam Thomas and Nic Claxton are both questionable. In his previous two games before the leg cramps, Johnson had back-to-back games with over 40 DraftKings points. He shot the lights out as he went 16-for-26 from the field and 7-for-14 from downtown, averaging 21 points and 7.5 rebounds per game.
Johnson is a stronger value on DraftKings, where he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at the power forward position. If Thomas and Claxton both don’t play again, this is a spot worth getting exposure to despite a difficult matchup against the long Raptors’ wing players. Johnson can heat up in a hurry and deserves consideration at his mid-range salary.
Center
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis vs. Golden State Warriors – $10,100 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
This will be the third time already this season that the Kings and Warriors are meeting up, with the Warriors winning the first two by a close margin. In case anyone needs a reminder, Domantas Sabonis dominates Kevon Looney and the Warriors frontcourt, especially on the glass. Since joining the Kings, Sabonis is averaging a massive double-double with 23.2 points, 15.8 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game. Over that time, Sabonis is shooting 50.7% from the field with a 25.6% usage rate.
Despite being much cheaper on DraftKings and FanDuel, Sabonis has a higher projected ceiling than both Giannis and Tatum tonight. He will be by far the highest-owned pay-up option on FanDuel at his sub-$10,000 price tag. Having power forward and center eligibility on FanDuel also makes it easy for him to fit into all lineup builds—elite matchup for Sabonis.
Top Value: Alperen Sengun at Dallas Mavericks – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
Talk about elite matchups. This is a great spot for “Baby-Jokic” Alperen Sengun. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Sengun recorded a near triple-double against Nikola Jokic in the last game with 21 points, 15 rebounds, and eight assists. He also added two steals and one block in 43 minutes. The phenom can rack up fantasy points in a variety of ways, as he is averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, and assists while shooting 56.7%.
The Mavericks have been dominated by opposing big men this season. They rank 29th in Rebounding Percentage at 47.2% and have allowed 56.5 points per game in the paint, which is the third-highest in the league. Maxi Kleber is out, and Dereck Lively is questionable. They simply won’t have the bodies to slow down Sengun in this spot, as he looks like a great value.
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