We have an NFC North showdown to close Week 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Vikings are listed as 3-point home favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
The Vikings are not expected to activate Justin Jefferson for this contest, so Justin Fields leads the way as the highest-priced player on the slate.
Fields returned from his absence with a great fantasy performance against the Lions, throwing for 169 yards and a touchdown while running for 104 yards on the ground en route to 24.16 DraftKings points.
Minnesota leads the league in blitz rate, but Fields has been solid against the blitz. He’s completed 59% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt when the opposing team sends extra rushers. Fields got hurt in these teams’ first matchup but found success on the ground prior to his injury. Fields’ rushing success last week, coupled with his success in this last matchup (eight carries for 46 yards prior to injury), make me optimistic about him tonight. He’s my top Captain option.
I’ve talked about D.J. Moore‘s success with Fields, and their connection shined through in Fields’ first game back. He caught seven of nine targets for 96 yards and a touchdown and has now found the end zone and topped 90 yards in his last three full games with Fields.
Moore has a 31% target share against the blitz with Fields under center. He’s a very strong option tonight.
Joshua Dobbs leads the way for Minnesota, failing to reach 20 DraftKings points last week for the first time as a Viking. He still had a solid showing, with 18.94 DraftKings points, finding the end zone on the ground in his fifth-straight contest.
Although they’ve been better as of late, Chicago has allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year.
T.J. Hockenson rounds out the stud section, coming off his second-worst fantasy performance of the season. Hockenson caught four of seven targets for 55 yards in the team’s loss to Denver.
Regardless of the poor performance, Hockenson is clearly the team’s top target without Jefferson and gets a matchup with a Chicago defense that has allowed the 11th-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends. He’s one of the top options of the slate, rounding out a jam-packed stud section.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
It’s been a mixed bag of performances for Jordan Addison without Jefferson. He had 34.3 and 21.4 DraftKings points against the 49ers and Packers but followed those up with less than 11 DraftKings points in each of the past three weeks.
Jefferson missed the first matchup with Chicago, and Addison caught just three of five targets for 28 yards and a touchdown. Chicago has been stout against opposing receivers all year, and I’m expecting more of the same tonight.
Alexander Mattison was fed last week against Denver, carrying the ball 18 times for 81 yards and catching one of two targets. Ty Chandler has continued to eat into Mattison’s work, as he saw 10 carries of his own and caught all four of his targets for 110 scrimmage yards.
Chicago has been stout on the ground, allowing the fewest yards per carry. However, they’ve allowed the most receiving points per game to opposing backs, giving some reasons for optimism for this tandem.
I’m expecting Mattison to go overlooked, so I am interested in him in the midrange despite it feeling like a gross click. Chandler is certainly viable, but with them priced somewhat close, I’ll take the back with the stronger role.
With D’Onta Foreman out, Khalil Herbert will reclaim his role as the top back in Chicago. He handled 16 carries for 35 yards last week, and caught two of three targets for six yards.
Minnesota is allowing the fifth-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs, but we can expect Herbert to handle 15 to 20 touches. It’s hard not to get excited about that volume at his price.
I have a lot of interest in Roschon Johnson too, who comes in as an appealing value option. He’ll handle the two-minute work, and will surely eat into Herbert’s workload, as he did in Weeks 1-4 when these two manned the backfield.
Fields’ return was fruitless for Cole Kmet, catching three of four targets for 20 yards. He still ran a route on 85% of the dropbacks, but he was utilized very close to the line of scrimmage. We’ve seen this story before, as he air-balled in Week 7, then totaled 17.9 and 23.5 DraftKings points in Weeks 8 and 9.
He has almost a third of the team’s red zone targets, as he’s certainly a threat to find the end zone.
I feel like I have the same shpiel on K.J. Osborn every showdown slate sans Jefferson. His role is modest, with a middling 16% target share since Jefferson went down. However, his price is slightly too expected, and Brandon Powell is a far more appealing option, with a slightly lower target share (12%) at a far cheaper price ($2,000 compared to $5,600)
Powell is running a route on about three-quarters of the dropbacks and has seen at least three targets in seven straight games.
Darnell Mooney has seen his route participation drop in three straight games and had just one target in Fields’ first game back. He’s a big play threat, but he’s off of my radar.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Josh Oliver ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Josh Oliver is mostly used as a blocker, but came out of nowhere with four catches for 47 yards and a touchdown last week. He’s a viable punt, but he’s likely too expensive for his role.
- Equanimeous St. Brown ($1,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): EQ is a solid tournament pivot to Brandon Powell, as he’s just $400 cheaper and running a route on 40% of the Bears’ passing plays.
