Sunday Night Football gives us a big showdown in the AFC with the Ravens traveling to Los Angeles to play the Chargers at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Ravens are listed as three-point road favorites, while the total sits at 48.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The stud section is chock-full Sunday night, with Lamar Jackson unsurprisingly leading the way. He’s coming off of a solid performance against the Bengals, throwing for 264 yards and two touchdowns while running for 54 yards on the ground.
He was banged up with an ankle injury but was ultimately able to stay in the game. Los Angeles has allowed the most yards per attempt and second-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the year. Jackson is the top projected play on the slate and is a staple of cash-game lineups for sure.
Keenan Allen soaked up a ton of volume last week, and he has now seen 30 targets in his last two games. He caught 10 of 16 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown, totaling 30.6 DraftKings points against the Packers.
This matchup is tough, with Baltimore allowing the fewest yards per target to slot receivers and the sixth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers.
Justin Herbert comes next, with over 24 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Baltimore boasts potentially the best defense in the league, and we saw Herbert with 7.14 and 12.86 DraftKings points against other tough units like the Jets and Chiefs.
Likely my favorite of the expensive Chargers, Austin Ekeler rounds out the stud section. Baltimore has been a little more leaky on the ground as of late, giving up over 100 yards to Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jerome Ford, and Joe Mixon over their past six games.
He had seen at least seven targets in three straight games prior to last week’s three-target outing. I’m expecting him to revert back to that 5-7 target range. Ekeler will likely be the lowest-owned of these four, but he’s my favorite captain option.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
I proceeded to go on a tangent about how lucky Gus Edwards has been, and how almost the entirety of his fantasy production comes from end-zone trips. Edwards proceeded to shove it in my face by finding the end zone twice against the Bengals.
He only handled 56% of the team’s rush attempts, and he’s running hotter than the sun. If you think Edwards finds the end zone again, he’s surely a viable play. Los Angeles has surrendered the eighth-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs, for what it’s worth.
Zay Flowers is questionable with a hip injury, but he is expected to suit up for Sunday night’s game. He likely gets a target boost with Andrews now not in the lineup. The potential usage boost could lead to an increased price on Zay in future showdowns. This could be a solid buy-low spot.
The Chargers have been gashed by opposing receivers, ranking in the bottom four in yards per target, yards per catch, and touchdown rate allowed.
Keaton Mitchell doesn’t handle the goal line work and sees about a third of the backfield touches. He’s an explosive player, but he’s too expensive for his current role.
Odell Beckham Jr. is questionable with a shoulder injury, but he is expected to suit up. He was leaned on last game, seeing seven targets and catching four for 116 yards.
Isaiah Likely will be thrust into a far more valuable role with Mark Andrews hurt. He didn’t catch either of his two targets last week and didn’t produce much in Week 1 when Andrews missed. Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-most yards per target to opposing tight ends, but Likely doesn’t seem to have much of a role right now.
Gerald Everett is expected to suit up, which puts him and Donald Parham Jr. in a timeshare where it’s hard to differentiate between the two. Neither has much appeal to me Sunday night.
Rashod Bateman has run a route on 77% and 76% of dropbacks over the past two weeks. Baltimore is likely to rely on more three-WR sets with Andrews out, so Beckham Jr. and Bateman should stop cannibalizing each other’s playing time.
Joshua Kelley remains too expensive for his role, as he’s handled no more than six carries over the past four weeks.
Quentin Johnston dropped a big pass late in the fourth quarter against Green Bay, and he hauled in just two of six targets for 21 yards. He ran a route on 91% of the dropbacks, which is promising, and he’s probably worth going back to as most users are fed up with him.
Jalen Guyton played on 79% of the snaps in Week 10 before missing Week 11, and he is expected to suit up despite dealing with a groin injury. He’s squarely on my radar as a guy that Herbert trusts. If he were to miss, Alex Erickson would likely slot into his place.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Nelson Agholor ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Nelson Agholor played on 41% of the snaps last week, and he could see an uptick if either Flowers or Beckham Jr. are limited or miss. He’s a viable value option.
- Charlie Kolar ($600 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Charlie Kolar didn’t see much of a playing-time boost with Andrews out, but could see a little bit of work this week. If looking for a punt, he seems to be the best option.
