The NBA returns tonight with an eight-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Detroit Pistons – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Haliburton is in the midst of a magnificent season and is in an outstanding spot tonight, hosting the lowly 2-13 Pistons, who rank 21st in defensive efficiency. Handling a career-high usage rate (26.1%) and leading the NBA in assist percentage (49.8%), Haliburton is destroying his opponents for 1.63 DraftKings PPM. The guard has topped 60 DraftKings in four of his past five starts, and the Pacers boast a massive implied team total of 125 points tonight, which is the highest team total Haliburton has ever played behind. Additionally, this game’s total is the second largest on the slate (246 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
The blossoming star is averaging an enormous 66.9 DraftKings PPG for the five instances he has competed in a total of at least 240 points this season – via the Trends Tool – and is worth every penny at these price tags.
Update: Haliburton (wrist) was a late added to the Pacers’ injury report and is questionable. If the guard suits up, his ownership will likely suffer due to the late designation, which would be great news for us DFS players rostering Haliburton. Now, if the guard is inactive, TJ McConnell will be the player to target, starter or not. The veteran is amassing 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season and posted 35.75 DraftKings points across 28 minutes in the lone game Haliburton missed this season. His minutes were slightly inflated in this contest with the Pacers getting blown out, but Haliburton would see nothing less than 20 minutes if Haliburton is inactive, which is more than enough for him to beat his current salaries. For the last 10 times McConnell has logged at least 20 minutes, he is averaging 31.75 DraftKings PPG.
Top Value: Jose Alvarado at Los Angeles Clippers – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Despite the ugly matchup vs. the Clippers – who rank sixth in defensive efficiency – Alvarado is a viable punt tonight. After being eased into action in his season debut this past Monday, Alvarado saw 19 minutes off the bench and delivered 20.75 DraftKings points vs. the Kings. The guard should see his workload grow towards 25 minutes tonight with CJ McCollum (lung) still sidelined for the Pelicans, which is plenty of time for Alvarado to out produce these low salaries.
The guard has seen a healthy 20% usage rate this season and is supplying 0.9 DraftKings PPM over the last two years. Plus, Alvarado is averaging 21 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 times he has eclipsed the 20-minute mark.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Hosting the 76ers on Wednesday, it was business as usual for Edwards, leading the Wolves with 53 DraftKings points in a winning effort. Playing on his home floor has been a huge advantage this season, and after Wednesday’s showing, Edwards is generating 52.6 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts at the Target Center.
The 22-year-old is leading Minnesota with a 32.9% usage rate this season and remains at home tonight, taking on the Kings. Sacramento ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and 11th in pace, and this contest’s total is the fourth-highest on the slate (229.5 points). This is the largest total Edwards has competed in this season, and he should surpass 50 fantasy points in this environment.
Top Value: Jaden Ivey at Indiana Pacers – $5,100 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
At these price points, Ivey has a ton of merit in this slate-high total vs. the Pacers (246 points). With Haliburton running the show, Indiana is by far the fastest team in the league this season, and they also struggle defensively, ranking second-to-last in defensive efficiency. This is an incredible matchup for guards, and while Ivey has had a quiet season thus far, he was promoted to the Pistons’ starting five two games ago and has seen at least 28 minutes in each of these last two.
The former lottery pick is amassing 0.93 DraftKings PPM this season and is coming off a strong showing with the new starting gig, posting 27 DraftKings points in a tough spot vs. the Nuggets this past Monday. Ivey should outdo himself with an even better performance in this track meet with the Pacers and likely won’t come with much ownership.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $8,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
George has been consistent and remains slightly underpriced at these sub $9K salaries. The wing is leading the Clippers with a 27.2% usage rate and has topped 40 DraftKings points in 11 of his 13 starts.
On the menu for tonight is a subpar matchup with the Pelicans, who rank 14th in efficiency. However, the Clippers will be at home, where George is producing 46.2 DraftKings PPG this season, which is a 5.7 upgrade from when he has played on the road. George should maintain this average and is never a popular name in GPPs.
Top Value: Buddy Hield vs. Detroit Pistons – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
At these reasonable price tags, Hield is, without a doubt, one of the best values on the slate. The 30-year-old has been terrific since being inserted in the Pacers’ starting five two games ago, scoring 30.5 DraftKings points vs. the Hawks and then a season-best 50 DraftKings points vs. the Raptors. With the starting role, Hield has seen 32.9 minutes per game and has knocked down 13 of his 18 attempts from beyond the arc (72%).
The sharpshooter is providing one DraftKings PPM this season and should score at least 30 fantasy points in this huge total vs. the Pistons (246 points).
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kyle Kuzma at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,300 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Kuzma is an excellent GPP target vs. the Bucks. Due to Jrue Holiday’s departure to Boston, Milwaukee has struggled on defense this season, ranking 22nd in efficiency and Kuzma exposed their flaws just this past Monday night, going off for 52.75 DraftKings points. This season, the ex-Laker is generating 1.3 DraftKings PPM and is leading the Wizards with a 31.6% usage rate, which is also a career-high for Kuzma.
While his game log looks inconsistent, Kuzma has thrived in strong matchups this season, and tonight’s matchup with the Bucks sports the highest total on the slate (246.5 points). For the five starts he has made in totals of 240 points or greater this season, Kuzma is producing 44 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Naz Reid vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
With Jaden McDaniels (ankle) out Wednesday vs. the 76ers, Reid finished with 26.5 DraftKings points in 22 minutes off the bench. The big man is collecting one DraftKings PPM this season, and with McDaniels remaining sidelined, Reid should receive roughly 25 minutes tonight in this tight four-point spread vs. the Kings.
Sacramento ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and 11th in pace, and Reid is one of the better forward values available Friday in this plus spot. For the seven instances the LSU product has logged over 20 minutes this season, Reid is contributing 24.4 DraftKings PPG.
Center
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Washington Wizards – $11,100 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
After being held in check for only 48.75 DraftKings in Boston on Wednesday, Antetokounmpo should get back on track tonight. The reigning MVP is at home and going against the Wizards, who rank third in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency. No team in action tonight carries a higher implied team total than the Bucks (129.75 points), and Antetokounmpo just erupted for 73.25 DraftKings points vs. this same Washington team this past Monday.
This is notably the largest implied team total the forward has ever played behind, and another explosion over 70 fantasy points is certainly on the table.
Update: Antetokounmpo (illness) was a late addition to the Bucks’ injury report and is questionable. In the event he sits, Damian Lillard would become an elite option in this gorgeous spot vs. the Wizards. In the lone start the guard has made sans Antetokounmpo this season, Lillard went off for a season-high 67 DraftKings points vs. the Raptors. With Antetokounmpo off the floor, Lillard’s usage rises 7.0 percentage points to 36.6%, and he scores 1.6 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Daniel Theis vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $3,600 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Theis has fit in nicely with the Clippers, supplying 30 DraftKings points in 20.5 minutes per game off the bench in his last two. Los Angeles’ HC Ty Lue has rarely shown a willingness to let starting center Ivica Zubac play big minutes, and Theis should continue to see roughly 20 minutes a night as Zubac’s direct backup, with room for more if the center ever gets in foul trouble, which happens often.
Theis has been efficient with 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season and is far too cheap for his new role with the Clippers, especially on at only $3,600 on DraftKings.
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