Week 12 presents a 10-game main slate Sunday, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 12.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Josh Allen ($8,100) + Dalton Kincaid ($5,500)
The most anticipated matchup of this week is the Bills vs. the Eagles. This tilt presents the highest total on the slate (48.5 points), and Philadelphia is only favored by three points via the FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Sitting at 6-5, Buffalo would miss the playoffs if the season ended today. While competing in Philadelphia is a tall task, getting a win this week would be massive for their playoff hopes, and we should see a vintage performance from Allen.
The best way to beat the Eagles is through the air, with their defense yielding the third most passing touchdowns this season (21), making this a great spot for Allen. No quarterback has thrown more touchdowns than the 27-year-old this season (22) and he ranks eighth in yards per pass (7.5).
Plus, Allen has been active with his legs, ranking fourth among quarterbacks in carries per game (4.8) and red zone rushes (17). Thanks to his dual-threat ability, Allen leads all quarterbacks in DraftKings PPG this season (24.6). The Bills have only been underdogs five times over the last two seasons, but in those situations, Allen has been brilliant, producing 36.5 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Ever since Buffalo lost Dawson Knox (wrist) in Week 7, Kincaid has been great as the Bills’ featured tight end over the last four weeks, providing 15.3 DraftKings PPG. If this were the rookie’s average for the season, Kincaid would be in some elite company, ranking third among tight ends, only trailing Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson.
Over these last four weeks, Kincaid has only seen one less target than Stefon Diggs, and he has been targeted on 23% of his routes, including three red zone targets and two targets over 20 yards. The Eagles have allowed a tight end to score a touchdown in three straight games, and Kincaid is one of the best values on the board in this compelling spot.
With the entire Eagles’ offense expected to be popular, the Bills are getting way overlooked. Both Allen and Kincaid are expected to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings, via the BLITZ projections.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Jaylen Warren ($5,400)
Warren has been outstanding lately, supplying 21 DraftKings PPG across his last three games. With 14.3 carries per game, the back has averaged 106 yards per game during this run. Furthermore, Warren has caught eight passes and seen a target on 31% of his routes.
The 25-year-old ranks fourth among running backs in DraftKings points per snap this season (0.46), and while Najee Harris still has a slight edge in usage for this Steelers’ backfield, it has operated as a near-even timeshare recently. Over these last three weeks that Warren has dominated, he has handled 44.3% of the Steelers running back carries, which is a huge upgrade from the first seven weeks of the season, when Warren only saw 27.4% of Pittsburgh’s rushes.
Pittsburgh’s coaching staff is clearly taking notice of Warren’s efficiency and giving him more work as the season goes on. With the Steelers winning two of their last three and Warren being a large part of their success, the back should continue to receive a big role this weekend, and his ascension should continue in an excellent spot vs. the Bengals.
Cincinnati is surrendering the second most yards per rush this season (5.0), and Pittsburgh should rely on their run game as 1.5-point favorites for this contest. Warren brings a superb ceiling relative to his reasonable salary and isn’t getting nearly the attention he deserves, with the BLITZ projections slating the back to be only around 10% owned on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,800)
Michael Pittman Jr. has seen elite usage with Gardner Minshew under center this season. In the six starts the wideout has made with Minshew starting at quarterback, Pittman Jr. has led the Colts with a 29% target share. Minshew has notably targeted him 12 times in the red zone for a strong two-per-game average and has also targeted him six times over 20 yards.
Pittman Jr. is amassing 17.5 DraftKings PPG in the six full games he has played Minshew and meets a Bucs defense this season that has been putrid recently, giving up the most yards per pass in the NFL over the last three weeks (8.6). During this time, they have allowed six touchdowns to opposing receivers and have allowed three different receivers to eclipse 100 yards receiving.
In this juicy spot, the Colts carry the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (23.5 points), and this tilt’s total is the third-largest on the board (44.5 points).
In the BLITZ projections, Pittman Jr.’s ceiling is the fourth highest on the slate among receivers, but he is only the 10th most expensive wideout on DraftKings. Not only is Pittman Jr. an awesome value, but the BLITZ projections are forecasting him to be only around 10% on DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
David Njoku ($4,100)
Dorian Thompson-Robinson will remain the Browns’ starting quarterback this Sunday with Deshaun Watson (shoulder) done for the year, which is huge news for Njoku. In the two full games Thompson-Robinson has started and completed this season, Njoku has led the Browns with an elite 29.6% target share.
The 27-year-old’s results haven’t been eye-popping in these games, generating 11.3 DraftKings PPG, but Njoku faced two stout defenses in the Steelers and Ravens, who rank seventh and ninth in fewest DraftKings points allowed to tight ends this season, respectively.
Now, Njoku meets a Broncos defense this Sunday that is yielding the most DraftKings points to tight ends and the third most yards per pass this season (7.4). Njoku could be in store for a season-best showing in this spot and is slated to only be roughly 6% owned on DraftKings, via the BLITZ projections.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
