Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
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The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
Below are two table: One each for the Week 11 Main Slate and the Thanksgiving Slate. Particular matchups will be highlighted based on their strength, but which slate they apply to will be noted as well.
Thanksgiving Slate Matchups
Main Slate Matchups
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Detroit Lions OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Green Bay Packers DL
While the Lions lead the three three-game Thanksgiving slate, their matchup would stand out on any slate. If we considered all 13 games between these two slates together, Detroit would rank second in run blocking and third in pass blocking on the combined slate.
Which obviously makes them super appealing in the opener of the Thanksgiving slate. Both the Lions passing and rushing attacks are in play. As an added benefit, going heavy on Lions pieces opens up more late-swapping options as the day progresses. There’s more value in that for cash games than GPPs — if your early stack doesn’t hit, there’s not much chance for tournaments — but it’s still worth noting.
Jared Goff ($6,300) and the passing attack have performed far better at home and when keeping Goff clean. At the same time, the real appeal here might be the two-headed rushing attack of Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,800) and David Montgomery ($6,300). Getting the right Lions back requires some guesswork, but there’s a good chance one or the other makes it into the optimal lineup.
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Cleveland Browns OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #8 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Denver Broncos DL
The Browns conveniently match up much better on the ground this week. Their passing offense is an afterthought at this point, with starting quarterback Deshaun Watson out for the season and Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($4,900) filling in with a meager supporting cast.
The run game has provided what little offense the Browns have produced for the bulk of the season, with Jerome Ford ($5,600) and Kareem Hunt ($4,800) splitting primary duties. It’s been a roughly 60/40 split, with Ford seeing 49 carries over the last three weeks and Hunt drawing 36.
Ford has also seen the bulk of the running back targets, which gives him the decided edge here. However, both backs could see a big role if Cleveland can get out to a lead or keep this close — and should be efficient in that role against the Broncos 32nd 32nd-ranked run defense by DVOA.
Kansas City Chiefs OL (#9 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Las Vegas Raiders DL
This looks like a perfect bounce-back week for the Chiefs, who lost a heartbreaking Monday night football contest against the Eagles. Unfortunately, we aren’t getting a break on the Chiefs’ salaries following that game, but it’s still a better setup for Patrick Mahomes ($8,200) and the passing offense.
A clean pocket won’t do much to fix the drops that have plagued the Chiefs offense, but at least they should have time for the receivers to get open. Speedster Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,200) narrowly missed a potential game-winning touchdown on Monday, and he’s one of five Chiefs priced between $3,000 and $3,200 on the main slate.
One or more of those options are likely to easily blow past their salary, potentially joining Rashee Rice ($5,500) or Travis Kelce ($8,200) as key parts of a Chiefs stack.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Dallas Cowboys DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate (Thanksgiving) ) vs. Washington Commanders OL
Washington has just one game this season where they’ve allowed less than three sacks. Over the last three weeks, they’ve allowed 10 sacks and thrown four interceptions. Those games came against three of the bottom six defenses in the league by adjusted sack rate.
They have a much tougher matchup on Thursday against a Dallas ($3,800) front that ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate on the season. Dallas is also tied for eighth in takeaways on the season as well. That makes this a smash spot for the Cowboys defense.
Fortunately, they’re also only $200 more expensive than the next-priciest defense on the Thanksgiving slate, so it’s fairly easy to find the salary to spend up for Dallas. Which could result in elevated ownership — unless chalk forms around the cheaper Detroit ($3,100) unit.
Kansas City Chiefs DL (#3 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Las Vegas Raiders OL
For the first time in a while, we have a potentially obvious defense play in Week 11. Kansas City ($3,100) is priced extremely reasonably, considering they are the largest favorite on the slate. They’ve also quietly been one of the league’s overall defenses, led by an excellent pass rush.
That pass rush ranks third in adjusted sack rate on the season, and they are taking on the Raiders’ rookie quarterback, Aidan O’Connell ($5,000). AOC has thrown four interceptions and taken five sacks over the past two weeks — and this is a tougher opponent.
It will probably be worth it to pivot from the Chiefs in large-field GPPs, but they’re an obvious choice for cash games and smaller tournaments.
