In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Jonathan Taylor
- Isiah Pacheco
- Javonte Williams
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
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Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Jonathan Taylor ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (44.5 total)
He’s finally up to speed, and the hierarchy of the Indianapolis backfield has finally shifted all in Jonathan Taylor‘s favor. Taylor handled 96% of the backfield touches in Germany, taking 23 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown and catching his lone target for six yards.
The matchup isn’t perfect, with Tampa Bay allowing the eighth-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs. However, they’re susceptible to opposing backs through the air, and we’ve seen Taylor have three games of four or more targets in the past five weeks.
Taylor ranks second in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary at the position. He’s the top running back in our Cash Model this weekend.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (43 total)
Isiah Pacheco handled a lot of volume on Monday night, taking 19 carries for 89 yards and catching his lone target for two yards. He didn’t find the end zone and was 11 yards shy of the 100-yard bonus, so his fantasy performance was middling.
However, he’ll likely continue to see a similar level of volume, and he gets a matchup with the Raiders, who have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs. Pacheco has just two targets in the past two weeks, but he has six games of three or more targets on the year.
Kansas City has one of the highest team totals on the slate, and Kansas City may lean on the run game more as they’re favored by over a touchdown. Pacheco is the top option in our Tournament Model, and Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Editor’s note: Jerick McKinnon was ruled out after this article was submitted. This should improve Pacheco’s outlook even more.
Javonte Williams ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Denver Broncos (-1.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (33 total)
Javonte Williams was held in check last week by Minnesota. He had three straight games of over 90 scrimmage yards but turned 11 carries and two targets into 53 total yards against the Vikings.
He also was affected by the game script, as Denver fell behind, leading Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine to mix in more. While in neutral or positive game scripts, it’s the Javonte show. It’s unlikely Denver falls behind this week, as they’re a 1.5-point favorite against a Cleveland offense that can’t really do anything right now.
This matchup is far from appetizing, though, as Cleveland has allowed only one back has cleared 75 rushing yards against them, and they’ve surrendered the ninth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs.
However, with this game likely to stay close, we can expect Williams to handle a ton of volume, and he’s underpriced if that’s the case. He leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary while being the top back in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
D’Andre Swift ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (48.5 total)
D’Andre Swift is currently listed as questionable with an ankle injury. If he is limited or ruled out (obviously), he would be off my radar. I’m not too interested in Swift if he’s forced to split reps with other backs, especially with Jalen Hurts already vulturing most of the rushing touchdowns.
Swift was very efficient on his volume last week, carrying the ball 12 times for 76 yards and a score while catching all three of his targets for 31 yards. It was his second-best DraftKings performance of the season, but he’s been consistently posting scores in the high teens.
The Buffalo run defense has been stellar as of late, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry in their last five games. They were abysmal over their first six games, for what it’s worth.
Rachaad White ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts (48 total)
Rachaad White has proven to be a dual-threat back who can see volume regardless of the game script. In Week 10, Tampa Bay had a comfortable win over the Titans, in which he saw 20 carries and three targets. In last week’s two-possession loss to the 49ers, White had nine carries and seven targets.
It was an up-and-down start to the season, but White has now gotten more than 15 DraftKings points in five straight games, averaging 19.46 points per contest. The Colts defense is solid on the ground, allowing the 10th-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs. However, they’ve allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns and have been susceptible through the air.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Kyren Williams ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals (44 total)
Kyren Williams is set to return to the lineup after missing four games with an ankle injury. I was originally planning on taking a “wait and see” approach with Williams, but Los Angeles released Darrell Henderson Jr, showing they’re confident in WIlliams’ health.
Now, Henderson is back on the practice squad, so they technically could elevate him for this contest. If they do, I’d likely be off of Williams. If they don’t elevate Henderson, then I’m expecting a heavy dose of Williams. In Williams’ last game action, he took 20 carries for 158 yards and a touchdown against this same Cardinals’ defense.
He’s not projecting for much ownership, making this a perfect spot to buy in. If he returns to seeing a lion’s share of the touches, he’s a steal.
