In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two wide receivers near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Tyreek Hill
- Michael Wilson
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.
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Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Tyreek Hill ($9,300 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-13.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (46.5 total)
Tyreek Hill predicted an explosion against his old team, and he was wrong. His old team held him to his second-lowest output of the year, catching eight of ten targets for 62 yards and losing a fumble. It’s hard to overstate how good Hill has been in totality this year. In just nine games, he already has four games over 30 DraftKings points, with just three games under 20.
Hill’s usage is borderline unmatched, leading the league with a 35.7% target rate per route run. He’s seen double-digit targets in six of nine games, including four straight.
Hill has the highest ceiling projection by over five points and is tied for third in Points/Salary despite carrying the highest price tag at the position. He’s the top option in our Cash Game and Tournament Model.
Michael Wilson ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) at Houston Texans (48 total)
The return of Kyler Murray is good news for all of the Arizona pass-catchers. They’re still priced as if Clayton Tune was the quarterback, as Michael Wilson has his cheapest price tag since Week 3.
He saw six targets in Murray’s return, catching three balls for 34 yards. Wilson runs a route on over 90% of the dropbacks and is going against a Houston secondary that is allowing the ninth-most yards per target and eighth-highest catch rate to opposing receivers. Owning an every-down role with Kyler Murray under center, it’s likely that we see Wilson priced around $4,000 soon.
He laps the position in Points/Salary and Projected Plus/Minus and is the top option in Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Tank Dell ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Houston Texans (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (48 total)
Tank Dell is coming off back-to-back great performances, catching six balls for 114 yards and two touchdowns two weeks ago, and six balls for 56 yards and a touchdown last week. He’s shown a strong ability to earn targets, with 11 and 14 in back-to-back weeks.
Robert Woods is going to miss this contest, so regardless of the status of Nico Collins (who I also like a lot), we should see a heavy dose of Dell on Sunday. Arizona is allowing the highest catch rate and third-most yards per target to opposing receivers. Dell is a strong option in all formats.
Calvin Ridley ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) vs. Tennessee Titans (40 total)
I can’t quit Calvin Ridley, and he’s now at his cheapest price tag of the season. He was a ghost last week, catching two of three targets for 20 yards. He’s now posted less than seven DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
Ridley’s strong usage should lead to production soon. as he has over a 40% share of the team’s end zone targets. This matchup is exploitable, with Tennessee allowing the third most receptions per game to boundary receivers and the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to receivers as a whole.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick(s)
Cooper Kupp ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (+1) vs. Seattle Seahawks (46.5 total)
Cooper Kupp is going overlooked in ownership projections, which is a big mistake by the field. It seems like everyone has forgotten about him after three straight games below seven DraftKings points and a bye.
I’m ready to catch the falling knife as Matthew Stafford returns to the field and Kupp gets a plus matchup against this exploitable Seattle defense. His usage was still strong in his three games prior to the bye, with 27 total targets.
Seattle has allowed over 50% of opposing wide receiver catches to come from the slot, where Kupp runs over 50% of his routes.
Kupp has sky-high upside, and he’s my preferred option of the expensive receivers.
Christian Watson ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (44 total)
Christian Watson was limited in practice with a shoulder injury, but assuming he’s good to go, he’s an interesting tournament option. He ran hot on touchdowns and big plays last year, but this year he seems to be running cold. He’s been the most double-covered receiver in the entire league!
Nope, that is not a typo. No one has seen single coverage at a lower rate than Christian Watson. Jordan Love has also struggled to get him the ball, as over 20% of Watson’s targets have been inaccurate. He’s still seeing a lot of shots down the field, with over 30% of his targets coming more than 20 yards downfield.
Los Angeles has allowed the ninth-most receptions on throws 20 or more yards downfield, setting up Watson with a chance to make some splash plays. His price keeps dropping, and similar to guys like Ridley and Kupp, I’m here to catch the falling knife.
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