The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Seattle Seahawks – $8,200 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
It’s very close at the top of all the projections between Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. While Hurts may be a little safer due to his rushing touchdowns, I’m going with Jackson since he has a slightly higher ceiling in a more favorable matchup against Seattle, which has to travel across the country and play in the early window.
Jackson has the highest ceiling projection on FanDuel in both the FanDuel projections and THE BLITZ projections. He also has the highest ceiling projection on DraftKings in THE BLITZ projections. His ownership projection on both sites is slightly lower than Hurts as well, so he offers a little more leverage.
Last week on the road in Arizona, Jackson only needed to throw for 157 yards and a touchdown to lead his Ravens to a road win. He was much better in his most recent home game, producing 37.8 DraftKings points and 33.9 FanDuel points in a rout of the Lions. In that game, he racked up a season-high 357 passing yards to go with three passing touchdowns and a fourth score on the ground. He seems to have adjusted well to offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s offense and is starting to gel with his improved receiving options. Especially at home, he has shown a high ceiling this season.
This week, he faces the Seahawks, who have been a very strong pass defense in recent weeks. They’ve had some easier matchups, though, going up against Joshua Dobbs and P.J. Walker the last two weeks. They gave up multiple passing touchdowns in two of their three road games this season, though, and also gave up 43 rushing yards and a touchdown to Dobbs, showing that mobile quarterbacks can find space to work.
On FanDuel, Jackson has a 91% Bargain Rating and is slightly less expensive than Hurts. He also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks on FanDuel in both THE BLITZ and FantasyLabs projections.
Since he has been so good at home this season and the Seahawks have struggled on the road, I expect Jackson to have another big game like he did two weeks ago. He can go off and carry the week any time he’s on the field, and he looks set up for success on Sunday since his Ravens have the highest implied team total on the slate.
Top Value: Gardner Minshew at Carolina Panthers – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
This week shapes up to be the week of the cheap quarterback. There are seven quarterbacks expected to start who have salaries under $5K on DraftKings. Some have taken over due to injury, some due to ineffectiveness, and others due to coaching changes. They each have upside but also come with plenty of question marks. Instead of taking a total flier with one of the bargains, I’m going with Gardner Minshew as my top value as he leads the Colts to Carolina to face the Panthers.
Sometimes to bring added clarity, it can be helpful to blend multiple projection sets together. Using an evenly split three-way blend of the FantasyLabs projections, Chris Raybon’s projections, and THE BLITZ, Minshew stands out with the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. He is tied for the highest Pts/Sal at the position on FanDuel and tied for the third-highest on DraftKings.
Since taking over for the injured Anthony Richardson (shoulder), Minshew has thrown five touchdowns in three games while averaging 282 passing yards per contest. He has also added two rushing scores. Those three starts came against solid defenses in the Jaguars, Browns, and Saints, and Minshew even reached 300 passing yards in two of those contests.
While the Colts have a strong running game led by Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, they aren’t afraid to let Minshew air it out either. He has over 40 pass attempts in three of his four starts this season, so he usually gets plenty of opportunities.
This week, he’ll face the Panthers, who have allowed 12 quarterback touchdowns in seven games. Before slowing down the Texans to get their first win of the season last week, they allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three straight weeks. The Colts are road favorites in this matchup and have the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate.
It will be exciting to see which of the other “new” quarterback options go off but don’t sleep on Minshew as one of the more proven, affordable plays at the position this week. If you are spending up in other spots, it’s a good week to unleash Minshew Mania.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Alvin Kamara vs. Chicago Bears – $8,100 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
Even though his salary jumped this week, Alvin Kamara is still the go-to option if you have the salary to spend at running back. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the three-way blended projections, and he still seems a little under-priced on DraftKings, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating and a positive Projected Plus/Minus.
Kamara has been a regular in my picks since returning from suspension because he has been getting so much volume. He was in this same ceiling spot last week and had a pair of touchdowns to help the Saints beat Minshew’s Colts. Kamara had just 59 rushing yards in that matchup but added 51 receiving yards and found the end zone as both a rusher and a receiver.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in every one of his five games this season with an Average Plus/Minus of 9.7 DraftKings points and 6.2 FanDuel points.
Since returning, he has averaged 25 touches per game and an average of 109.6 rushing + receiving yards. He hasn’t had 100 yards rushing or 100 yards receiving yet, but he is so involved in both aspects that his total has added up to big numbers every week. He has been one of the heaviest-used running backs in the red zone as well and has three touchdowns on the year.
The Bears have actually been decent against the run this year, aside from an outlier against the Chiefs, but they have been absolutely destroyed by running backs acting as receivers. Chicago has allowed an average of 6.0 receptions per game to opposing running backs for an average of 62 receiving yards per game. That is the most receiving yards per game allowed to running backs of any team in the NFL. Even though he has only played five games, Kamara has climbed to the top of the leaderboard in running back targets, so he should be both busy and productive in this matchup that plays to his strengths.
The Saints have the second-highest implied team total this week, behind only the Ravens. Since they rely so heavily on Kamara, he should remain one of the top ceiling plays.
Top Value: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Washington Commanders – $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
In each of the three sets of projections used for this weekly post and in the three-way aggregate, Rhamondre Stevenson brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs this week on DraftKings. He is a little pricier on FanDuel, but still brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the three-way aggregated projections on that site.
Stevenson has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has outperformed his salary-based expectations in two of his past three weeks. Like Kamara, he has been very involved as a receiver, with at least four targets in each of the last three weeks and over 50 receiving yards against the Bills two weeks ago.
On the season, Stevenson has averaged over 15 touches per game and double-digit DraftKings points even though he has only found the end zone two times. The Patriots don’t have a lot of playmakers and are dealing with multiple injuries, which could lead to even more work for Stevenson.
This week, he’ll face a Washington defense that has been decent against running backs but also will be missing multiple key parts after trading away defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Washington has given up a running back touchdown in each of its last two games and an average of over 100 yards rushing + receiving to the position this season.
Stevenson is sharing time in the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott, but he still is getting most of the work and brings enough upside to be one of the best value running backs on the board this week.
If you need a bargain play at RB, Emari Demercado is a good option if he plays through his toe injury. Roschon Johnson is another cheap play that stands out with plenty of opportunity in Chicago, and Devin Singletary is another punt play to consider since he’s getting a good amount of work in the Texans’ backfield.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: A.J. Brown vs. Dallas Cowboys – $8,600 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
With many elite wide receivers in primetime or international matchups, the top ceiling receiver on the main slate is A.J. Brown. Brown has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel using the three-way blended projections.
He also has the second-highest Pts/Sal on FanDuel, where he has a 77% Bargain Rating. Brown is the only receiver on the slate to match seven Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he also matches five Pro Trends on DraftKings, tied for the second-most at the position.
Brown has been red hot lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his past six games. He has a Plus/Minus of over 15 DraftKings points in three of those games, including each of his two most recent contests. He had two touchdowns last week against the Commanders after hauling in 10 catches for 137 yards and a touchdown the previous week against the Dolphins.
Brown will get a matchup against a Dallas secondary that has allowed an average of 10.0 receptions and 127.7 yards to wide receivers over the last three weeks. They are still adjusting to the loss of star cornerback Trevon Diggs and could be beatable by Brown as a result. Last year in his two matchups with the Cowboys, Brown had a total of 170 yards and a touchdown.
The Eagles have the third-highest implied team total on the slate, and Brown has been doing most of the heavy lifting as the team’s go-to receiver. Given the roll he has been on, it’s easy to see how spending up on him is a strong strategy to consider this week.
Top Value: Demario Douglas vs. Washington Commanders – $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
The Patriots’ matchup with the Commanders should also provide a good chance for Douglas to continue to emerge as a playmaker. The rookie has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the three-way projections on FanDuel and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He is also projected for the second-highest Pts/Sal on DraftKings.
Douglas was a sixth-round pick from Liberty, and he has been growing into a larger role as the Patriots have lost other receiver options along the way. Last week, Kendrick Bourne (knee) was lost for the season, and DeVante Parker (concussion) also left with an injury that could sideline him this week. Even with the return of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Douglas stayed very involved and could be ready to step up as the most targeted receiver this week.
He has flashed big-play potential while playing over 50% of the team’s snaps in each of the past two weeks since returning from a concussion of his own. Against the Bills, he caught 4-of-6 targets for 54 yards and followed that up by catching 5-of-7 targets for 25 yards. He exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in each of those contests since his cost has been so low.
The Commanders have been a good matchup for opposing wide receivers, allowing an average of 197 receiving yards per game to the position, along with 13 wide receiver touchdowns in eight games. If the Pats’ receivers have a big game this week, Douglas is likely to end up as one of the best values on the slate.
Some other wide receivers that show well in the projections include Tank Dell, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jonathan Mingo, Chris Olave, and Zay Flowers, especially on FanDuel. Flowers is especially worth a look if you’re playing Lamar Jackson and want to go all in on the Ravens stack.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Mark Andrews vs. Seattle Seahawks – $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
With Travis Kelce playing in the early game on Sunday, the top ceiling tight end spot goes to Andrews, who has the highest ceiling projection by a wide margin on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregated projections. Even though he has an elevated salary, he has the second-highest Pts/Sal of all tight ends on FanDuel.
Andrews has exceeded salary-based expectations in two of his past five games and has consistently been one of the focal points of the Ravens passing attack. Andrews has at least four catches in each of his seven games this season and has found the end zone three times in the past two weeks and six times this season.
Seattle gave up 83 yards and a touchdown to the Browns’ tight ends last week and over 50 yards to the Cardinals’ tight ends the previous week. They look like a tough matchup, but they haven’t been quite as strong lately.
Especially with new quarterbacks working with several other top tight end options, Andrews is a steady, secure play and should be a strong stacking option with Jackson again this week.
Top Value: Logan Thomas at New England Patriots – $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Last week, Trey McBride absolutely went off as a value play from this spot in my picks, and he’s tempting to go back to for his matchup with the Browns. However, a new quarterback and a high expected ownership make me hesitant to chase the points.
Instead, I’ll go with Logan Thomas, who is especially affordable on DraftKings. He has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends on the slate.
Thomas has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in four of his past five games and has at least four catches and at least 50 yards in four of his past five weeks. He has become a top safety option for Sam Howell, who constantly seems to be on the run looking for his big tight end. Thomas gets a neutral overall matchup against the Patriots this week, but New England has allowed at least four tight end catches in five of the past six weeks, so Thomas should be a productive value play.
On FanDuel, if you need a value tight end play, Jake Ferguson and Kyle Pitts project to be right around McBride in terms of Projected Plus/Minus, and Ferguson has the highest Pts/Sal at tight end on FanDuel.
