The NBA is ready to tip off its first full week of action with a jam-packed 11-game slate on Monday night. Seven teams are finishing up back-to-back sets with a Monday night game, but only the Magic are playing Tuesday when the schedule is a bit lighter.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
There’s no way to talk about studs on Monday’s slate without talking about Luka Doncic. Of all players at all positions, Doncic brings the highest ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel on Monday. He also ranks in the top three on both sites in median projection. He’s extremely expensive, but if you can find a way to make his salary work, no player comes with more raw upside.
Doncic and the Mavs have started the season strong with wins over the Spurs and Nets. In those two games, the team scored 125 and 126 points, and Doncic led the way in each game, exceeding his lofty salary-based expectations. He posted a 30-point triple-double, earning 72.25 DraftKings points and 65.6 FanDuel points against the Spurs in the opener, and followed that with 49 points on Friday against the Nets, resulting in 78 DraftKings points and 71.5 FanDuel points. In those two games, Doncic had a 37.9% usage rate and produced 2.14 DraftKings points and 1.96 FanDuel points per minute.
The Grizzlies have struggled in their first three games this season, going 0-3 and allowing an average of 110.7 points per game. Memphis also ranks in the top 10 in Pace in the early going this season, so there should be plenty of points put up in this contest. Doncic is projected for a slate-high 36.6% usage rate, and with his hot start to the season, he appears poised for another huge stat line.
Value
Taking a look at the Vegas Dashboard, the highest implied team total for Monday night is the Celtics visiting the Wizards in Washington, D.C. Washington has the highest Pace in the NBA in their first two games this season and also has the fifth-worst Defensive Rating. They rank in the top six in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards in the early going.
As a result of that matchup and game environment, Jrue Holiday has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on Monday’s slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Holiday has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on FanDuel, where he has an 88% Bargain Rating. He also matches 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and seven Pro Trends on DraftKings using the Trends tool.
In his first two games with Boston, Holiday has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.92 FanDuel points per minute. He had just nine points in the opener against the Knicks but bounced back with a strong showing against Miami on Friday night, producing 43.5 DraftKings points and 41.5 FanDuel points with a well-rounded line of 17 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists.
As he settles into his new spot, look for him to continue to stuff the stat sheet. On Saturday, he brings elite upside at a mid-range salary, making him an elite value.
Fast Break
With 22 teams on the floor, there are a ton of great point guards to consider. Damian Lillard will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing showing against the Hawks, Steph Curry and the Warriors roll into the Big Easy, and Shae Gilgeous-Alexader and the Thunder host the Pistons. There is no shortage of superstar options, but there are a few that especially pop in addition to Doncic and Holiday.
Tyrese Haliburton has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his first two games this season while posting a pair of games with 20-point double-doubles. His Pacers should be in a good spot hosting the Bulls in an Eastern Conference matchup with plenty of points expected. Out West, C.J. McCollum has gotten off to a strong start for the Pelicans, also exceeding salary-based expectations in his first two games.
In the mid-range, Malcolm Brogdon has been a reliable option for the Trail Blazers in the early going. He has an average Plus/Minus of 3.99 DraftKings points and has exceeded salary-based expectations in every game this season, including Sunday’s game when he had a season-high 33.75 DraftKings points.
On the other side of that Raptors-Blazers matchup, Dennis Schroder has started the season well for the Raptors and has turned in back-to-back double-doubles and three straight games out-producing salary-based expectations. He has an average Plus/Minus of 7.4 DraftKings points and has generated a solid 1.05 DraftKings points and 0.97 FanDuel points per minute.
If you need cheap plays at point guard, Derrick Rose, Dru Smith, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are all under $4K on DraftKings but come with good Projected Plus/Minus. On FanDuel, Jalen Suggs has the best projected Plus/Minus of all point guards under $5K, with Alec Burks and Alex Caruso also expected to return value from similar price points.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Hawks and Timberwolves are set to square off in Atlanta in the game with the highest over/under on the slate this Monday. It projects to be a good spot for Anthony Edwards to get on track. He has the highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on DraftKings and is third behind only Luka and SGA on FanDuel.
Edwards struggled with his shot on the road in Toronto in the opener, but he still posted a strong 26-point, 14-rebound double-double. His shot came around on Saturday at home against the Heat, and he added seven assists to his 19 points to produce 32.5 DraftKings points in just 33 minutes as the Timberwolves won comfortably.
He has shown the ability to produce in multiple categories and has a sky-high ceiling if everything comes together for him. The Hawks are coming off a huge win in Milwaukee on Sunday, and if they have a letdown game, Edwards could light them up.
Value
In the first two games of the season, Cam Thomas has been excellent for the Nets. He leads the team with his 34.6% usage rate and has made the most of his chances, dropping 36 points on the Cavs and 30 points on the Mavs. The Nets are 0-2, but Thomas has produced 1.57 DraftKings points and 1.58 FanDuel points per minute.
He moved into the starting lineup on Friday in place of Nic Claxton (ankle), who is again sidelined for Monday’s matchup in Charlotte. The Hornets play up-tempo, and Thomas should be able to continue his early-season scoring binge. On DraftKings, he has a 90% Bargain Rating at just $6,000 and is a great value guard to consider. On FanDuel, he’s more expensive, so his teammate Spencer Dinwiddie actually projects to be a better value play on that site, where he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any shooting guard.
Fast Break
One player I want to be sure to hit on but is hard to squish into a category is Jalen Williams of the Thunder. Williams has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and the second-highest of all small forwards on FanDuel. On DraftKings, though, he’s only eligible at power forward, where he brings the fourth-hights Projected Plus/Minus at that position. Wherever you can fit the second-year player into your lineup, he is projected to bring great value in OKC’s matchup with the Pistons.
Another value that pops in the projections is Raptors shooting guard Gary Trent Jr., especially on FanDuel, where he has a 92% Bargain Rating. On DraftKings, the values include Schroder, Rose, and Brogdon in addition to Lonnie Walker IV, who is a cheaper value play from the Nets if you can’t quite get together the salary for Dinwiddie or Thomas.
If you are looking for some star power, Cade Cunningham is worth a look against the Thunder, and Zach LaVine will look to follow up his 50-point performance from Saturday in what should be a point-producing environment in Indiana. Desmond Bane is expected to carry the load for the Grizzlies again in their matchup with the Mavs, and Dejounte Murray is coming off a strong showing last night in the Hawks’ win over Milwaukee.
Like at point guard, Jrue Holiday also stands out as a way to get elite-level upside from a mid-range price on DraftKings, where he also has shooting guard eligibility.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Celtics have the highest implied team total on the slate, so Jayson Tatum is one of the stars with the highest ceiling projections. He has the highest ceiling and median projection at small forward on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo. His floor projection is a little lower since the game could get lopsided and he does have some more help in town with the arrival of Holiday.
Tatum leads the Celtics with 80 minutes and a team-high 29.4% usage rate in his two games this season. He has produced 1.28 DraftKings points and 1.23 FanDuel points per minute in the early going and has been able to stuff the stat sheet in multiple categories. He has established himself as one of the best scorers in the league, and he looks ready to add good peripheral stats this season as well.
With the Celtics in such a great matchup, he makes sense as a stud to build around if you’re paying up at small forward due to his ceiling and consistency.
Value
The injuries to Nic Claxton (ankle) and Cameron Johnson (calf) have opened the door for Royce O’Neale to step up as one of the best bargain plays on the slate. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel at small forward, and he can also flex over to power forward on FanDuel. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on that site, behind only Holiday.
O’Neale played 34 minutes against the Mavs on Friday night with Claxton and Johnson sidelined, and he produced 31.5 DraftKings points and 27.5 FanDuel points on 11 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, and a steal. While O’Neale doesn’t usually pile up a ton of usage and scoring, he does so many peripheral things that add up to fantasy value.
At just $4,100 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings, he projects as one of the most productive cheap plays on Monday’s slate. He’s projected for the most Pts/Sal on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler is expected to return after resting in Miami’s last game, and he should be up to try and take down the Bucks in Milwaukee. He brings a very high ceiling but hasn’t had a monster game yet this season. Former Lakers’ teammates Brandon Ingram and LeBron James are both also among the stars with the highest ceiling projections at the position, with Ingram bringing the best upper-mid range value on DraftKings, where his salary is just $8,000.
If you want to pivot off of Holiday and Tatam, Jaylen Brown looked good on Friday night and could offer some contrarian leverage. At around the same price point, Scottie Barnes is also a strong option to consider after he exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his first three games with an Average Plus/Minus of 11.1 DraftKings points. He continues to do a lot of the heavy lifting in Toronto, and his high usage and diversified stats make him a very attractive option at under $8K.
In the midrange, rookie Ausar Thompson has looked good for the Pistons, averaging 1.05 Draftkings points and 1.08 FanDuel points per minute across his first three NBA games. He hasn’t quite gotten a double-double yet but has come very close and shown he can fill up the box score in multiple categories.
If you have to go under $5K at small forward but want to go with a less chalky play than O’Neale, some of the options that show best in our projections include Alec Burks of the Pistons, Ziaire Williams of the Grizzlies and Saddiq Bey of the Hawks.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
On Sunday, Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks took a tough loss to the Hawks, but he’s projected to bounce back in a big way against the Heat on Monday. Giannis played fewer than 30 minutes in the defeat but still posted 26 points and 11 rebounds for over 50 DraftKings points. The Dame-Giannis pairing has already shown it can dominate, but it has also shown it isn’t infallible.
Look for Giannis to quickly erase last night’s memory by taking it out on the Heat, who he’ll be looking to get revenge on anyway after ousting him from the playoffs last season. Giannis has the second-highest median projection and the third-highest ceiling projection on the entire slate on DraftKings and is also in the top four for median, ceiling, and floor projection on FanDuel.
Value
On Sunday, the Hawks moved Jalen Johnson into the starting lineup, and the 21-year-old continued his strong start to the season with another very strong fantasy game. The 20th overall pick from last year’s draft, Johnson should stick in the starting five and provide good value in a good game environment against the Timberwolves on Monday.
In his three games, Johnson has produced 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.18 FanDuel points per minute. He has averaged 15.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game as a versatile producer on the wing. His defensive contributions are why he’s been even better on FanDuel than on DraftKings.
Johnson is just $5,000 on DraftKings on Monday and has the highest projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of all power forwards on the slate. He’s slightly pricier on FanDuel, but still ranks in the top five in both Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal, showing he’s still a value to consider.
Fast Break
Another second-year forward that ranks near the top of most of the value categories on FanDuel is the Magic’s Paulo Banchero, who has a 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Aaron Gordon is another player who is especially affordable on FanDuel, with an 87% Bargain Rating.
On DraftKings, this is where Jalen Williams and Ausar Thompson (discussed above) can fit into your lineup. If you need to go even cheaper, Dorian Finney-Smith and Chris Boucher are also strong punt plays to consider.
If you’re shopping for under-owned stars with big-game potential, DeMar Dezoran and Kristaps Porzingis both fit that category. This will be the first time Porzingis has faced the Wizards since they shipped him to Boston this past offseason. He has the fourth-highest ceiling projection at power forward on DraftKings for just the ninth-highest price.
Keep a close eye on LeBron James on the second night of the Lakers back-to-back. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games and turned in good numbers, but with the back-to-back, the Lakers could try to get him some rest.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
If James is out or limited, Anthony Davis becomes a play that has to be considered. Even with LeBron in play, Davis brings the second-highest ceiling projection of both power forwards and centers on FanDuel and the third-highest ceiling projection of all centers on DraftKings. He’s significantly cheaper than Giannis and Nikola Jokic on DraftKings, where he has a 77% Bargain Rating and brings the third-highest Pts/Sal at the position.
Davis is coming off back-to-back 30-point games. He exceeded salary-based expectations in both performances with over 60 DraftKings and FanDuel points in strong showings against the Suns and the Kings. He has had a Plus/Minus of greater than +15 in each of his last two games, and it looks like the Lakers will try to rely on him even more heavily on offense to try to take some of the load off LeBron.
The Magic should be a good matchup for Davis at home, and he brings a very high ceiling for more than $2K less than Jokic on DraftKings.
Value
Especially on DraftKings, Onyeka Okongwu is drastically underpriced. He’s just $3,800, and as a result, he brings the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate along with the highest Pts/Sal and a 73% Bargain Rating. Okongwu is pricier on FanDuel at $4,800, but he still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Atlanta will need Okongwu in their home matchup against the over-sized lineup of the Timberwolves. He has already been playing around 20 minutes per game off the bench, but he is projected for 22 minutes in this matchup.
In his three games, Okongwu is producing 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.97 FanDuel points per minute. His best game of the season was Sunday in Milwaukee, when he posted a season-high 14 points to go with seven rebounds in 23 minutes. That performance resulted in 27.4 FanDuel points and 27.25 DraftKings points. He is projected to be around that level again on Monday, making him a great value option at center.
Fast Break
It’s very unusual to have Nikola Jokic on the slate and go a different direction with my stud pick since The Joker always has such a high ceiling. He has the highest ceiling projection on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel and obviously is an outstanding play if you can afford him. Given his matchup and salary, though, I slightly prefer Davis for Monday night. If ownership is going other places, though, Jokic always makes sense on some level since his ceiling is just so high.
In the midrange at center, Jonas Valanciunas projects to be a great play against the Warriors with the second-highest Pts/Sal on DraftKings. Jakob Poeltl is another strong mid-range option on DraftKings and FanDuel, where he brings the highest ceiling projection of all centers under $6K and the third-highest projected Pts/Sal at the position.
Jalen Duren has been outstanding, but his salary has spiked as a result. He still brings good upside but is no longer a cheap play for now. If you do have to go ultra-cheap and don’t want to roll with Okongwu, the top options in the projections are Andre Drummond and Maxi Kleber on DraftKings and Chris Boucher and Kelly Oynyk on FanDuel.
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