Week 8 comes to a close in Detroit with a matchup between the Lions and Raiders at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Lions are listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 47 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown popped up Sunday on the injury report with an illness and is currently listed as questionable. I’m expecting him to suit up, but we’ll get official word 90 minutes before kickoff.
St. Brown has been a model of consistency, with 100 yards or a touchdown in every game this season. His usage has been monstrous the past two weeks since returning from an abdomen injury. He’s caught 25 of 34 targets for 226 yards and a touchdown en route to 59.6 DraftKings points.
Las Vegas has allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers, but we saw Kendrick Bourne and D.J. Moore rack up 10 and eight catches over the past two weeks.
After a 45.2-point eruption in Week 3, Davante Adams has been held mostly in check. After voicing some concerns over his lack of usage, he saw 12 targets last week, catching seven balls for 57 yards.
With Jimmy Garoppolo back under center, I’m expecting Adams to continue getting fed. I’m expecting the field to prefer St. Brown and Jared Goff to Adams, which creates some appeal. Adams will likely be my favorite of the trio, as long as he still looks to be the lowest owned. If St. Brown were to get ruled out, that would massively change things.
Jared Goff comes in $1,000 more than Garoppolo, but it’s warranted. He’s home in his comfortable dome with a touchdown-higher team total. Detroit may be able to utilize the ground game more, as Las Vegas has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing backs. On the other side, Detroit has allowed just 3.6 yards per carry and the second-fewest DraftKings points to opposing backs.
Garoppolo has posted solid scores in two of his five games on the season, while Goff has delivered in four of seven. Ownership will certainly be higher on Goff than Garoppolo, and it’s likely warranted. You can soak up most of Garoppolo’s usage through Adams or Jakobi Meyers, while Goff is a little more spread out.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Jakobi Meyers, Josh Jacobs, and Jahmyr Gibbs all headline the midrange. Meyers’ usage is very similar to Adams, as he very narrowly trails him in target share and air yards share while leading the team in end zone targets. I prefer Meyers to Adams, but Adams’ potential discounted ownership keeps me very intrigued.
Jacobs’ usage is very strong, as he has a stranglehold over the touches in the Las Vegas backfield. He’s seen at least five targets in all but one game since Week 1 and 17+ carries in four of his last five.
This matchup is very difficult, as a massive road underdog with the Lions consistently shutting down opposing backs. He’s also priced next to Jahmyr Gibbs, who is the top play on the slate. I’ve buried the lede for long enough, as Gibbs is an insanely tough fade tonight.
He handled 80% of the team rush work last week while seeing ten targets en route to 21 total opportunities. The matchup is bountiful, as Las Vegas has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing backs.
Gibbs is a borderline lock tonight, and Meyers projects very well also. Jacobs’ usage and deflated price tag keep him interesting as well, despite the tough matchup. I prefer Jacobs to Meyers slightly, but it’s close, and Gibbs is far ahead.
If you run 150 lineups in the new SimLabs tool on FantasyLabs, you’ll get heavy exposure to Gibbs (depending on your settings).
Sam LaPorta may be a bit of a forgotten man tonight, priced just below the aforementioned trio. He’s had a solid season and certainly deserves mention, with 18 targets over the past two weeks. He’s definitely a slight tier below Meyers and Jacobs, but he’s a solid play.
Josh Reynolds serves as the WR2 in Detroit but has seen just six targets over the past two weeks. He likely has to find the end zone to pay off his tag, as he priced far too closely to the four mentioned above. I prefer the salary savings of the cheaper Detroit options, especially Jameson Williams.
Williams ran a route on 45% of the dropbacks last week with Marvin Jones no longer in the picture. He’s seen an impressive 24% target rate per route run so far and sees usage deep down the field. He doesn’t need a lot of volume, as his big-play ability can make him worth it in just a few plays.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Michael Mayer ($3,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Mayer’s playing time trended in the wrong direction last week, running a route on just 52% of the dropbacks compared to 67% the week before. He saw four targets, catching two balls for 13 yards. He’s a solid salary relief option this week, and hopefully, his routes revert in the right direction.
- Craig Reynolds ($3,200 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Craig Reynolds only saw four touches last week, as Gibbs handled most of the work with Detroit trailing massively. I’m expecting this to continue again, but Detroit is a big favorite and should have success on the ground. It’s certainly possible that they try to get Reynolds more involved and make the backfield more of a split.
- Kalif Raymond ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Kalif Raymond played on about a third of the snaps last week but has consistently seen schemed touches that are valuable at cheap price tags. He also has blazing speed, showing he’s capable of breaking a big play.
- Tre Tucker ($600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Tre Tucker is insanely cheap but has somewhat emerged into a solid role on the offense. He ran a route on 56% of the dropbacks over the past two weeks and has a solid aDOT. He’s an appealing option at so close to the minimum on both sites.
