Sunday Night Football gives us an interesting matchup between the Chargers and Bears at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Chargers are listed as 9.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 46 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
A trio of Chargers studs headline the slate, with Justin Herbert leading the way. Herbert had a letdown performance last week against Kansas City, totaling just 12.86 DraftKings points in a losing effort.
This is a great bounceback spot for Herbert, with Chicago ranking in the bottom 10 in completion rate, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate.
Keenan Allen almost had an eruption game the last time we saw him in primetime. He caught seven of 11 targets for 85 yards and a touchdown en route to 21.5 points, but Herbert missed him twice for huge gains. However, Allen’s touchdown came after a penalty was called on Joshua Palmer‘s score, so two can play that game.
This matchup isn’t a total smash, but Allen’s role is elite. He’s seen nine or more targets in all but one game and is Herbert’s go-to option. There are no real holes to poke in Allen’s outlook, but I prefer Herbert and Austin Ekeler.
Ekeler was held in check last week, which is a common theme in his matchups against Kansas City. He saw 14 carries and two targets, totaling 46 scrimmage yards en route to 5.6 DraftKings points.
Chicago has stymied opposing backs on the ground, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry. They’ve given up a lot of work to opposing backs through the air though, where Ekeler does a lot of his damage.
I’d rank the top trio as Ekeler, Herbert, and then Allen.
Despite Justin Fields missing last week’s contest, DJ Moore still had a solid stat line with 54 yards on eight catches. He had over 30% of the team targets and has seen a 34% target rate per route run with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Moore has a fairly low average depth of target, as they’re trying to keep Bagent from having to do too much.
Moore projects better than Bagent, and he can rack up volume even if the offense is inefficient. It’ll be interesting to see how ownership checks out, but I prefer Moore to Bagent.
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
D’Onta Foreman headlines the midrange, but with Roschon Johnson returning to the lineup, it’s unclear how the Chicago backfield will shake out. Johnson handled the work with Khalil Herbert early in the year prior to the backfield injuries. Foreman will likely keep the goal-line role, but Johnson will likely see more work overall.
I was all over Joshua Palmer on the showdown slate against Dallas, and penalties prevented him from having a big day. He finished with four catches for 60 yards on seven targets. He’s currently listed as questionable with a knee injury and is a true game-time decision. I’m expecting him to suit up, and he’s a prime target in the mid-range as an every-down receiver.
Cole Kmet hasn’t created much of a rapport with Bagent under center, as he didn’t see a target last week. Tight ends usually struggle against Los Angeles, but Travis Kelce torched them last week. Cole Kmet is no Travis Kelce, but it’s still noteworthy. Kmet is a little expensive for someone who likely has to find the end zone.
Joshua Kelley is another touchdown-dependent play, but he delivered last week. His two best games have come in the two games with Ekeler healthy, which is surprising. Regardless, Kelley appears overpriced in my opinion.
Gerald Everett, like Palmer, is a game-time decision. He only ran a route on nine of 31 dropbacks last week, so even if he plays, he’s likely off my radar. Donald Parham would be the main beneficiary if Everett were to miss. If Everett plays, Parham is likely too expensive, although he does maintain a solid red-zone role.
Quentin Johnston hasn’t taken on the role we had hoped with Mike Williams sidelined, having run a route on 62% of the dropbacks with a poor 8% target share. If Palmer plays, Johnston is a hard click. If Palmer misses, Johnston becomes appealing.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Darnell Mooney ($4,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Darnell Mooney hasn’t earned much of a role with Bagent under center, and he hasn’t seen more than four targets in a game since Week 1. He’s certainly viable, but he’s not an exciting click.
- Tyler Scott ($1,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Tyler Scott will likely be a very popular value play after he ran a route on 63% and 67% of dropbacks over the past two weeks. He provides important salary relief in order to prioritize some of the top studs.
- Derius Davis ($800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Derius Davis receives some schemed looks pretty consistently, and he comes in very cheap. He becomes very interesting if Palmer misses, but he’s still a viable play regardless.
