Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS. It can also be one of the most valuable.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical. As the season rolls in, metrics like adjusted line yard and adjusted sack rate are a good way to judge a team’s strengths and weaknesses.
Into the middle third of the season, we can feel fairly confident about the data powering the table below. The one caveat is injuries, as we still need to be aware of when teams are missing key players on either side of the ball.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
Below is a table featuring every offense’s combined adjusted line yards and pressure rate combined with the opposing defensive units. Adjusted line yards are a Football Outsiders (now at FTN) statistic that quantifies how much of a team’s rushing yards gained/allowed are attributable to the offensive or defensive lines. Adjusted sack rate measures sacks against down-and-distance rates to quantify how many more or fewer sacks on average a team is recording/allowing.
With adjusted line yards, higher numbers are better for the offensive unit. With adjusted sack rate, lower numbers are better. Both factors should be considered, though. For example, a running back will score more fantasy points on average when his team’s passing attack is functioning well, and vice versa for quarterbacks.
In Week 5, these numbers became matchup-adjusted, and we’ll lean more heavily on them. Until then, we’ll mixed in 2022 data and the rankings mentioned above to decide on the matchups.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Miami Dolphins OL (#7 in Combined Line Yards, #1 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. New England Patriots DL
The Patriots feature a solid overall defense this season. That’s not due to the play of their defensive line, though, as they rank 15th in adjusted line yards and all the way down at 27th in adjusted sack rate.
That makes this an excellent matchup for the Dolphins passing attack. Particularly their downfield weapons, as there should be more than enough time for deep balls to develop. The first time these teams met, Tyreek Hill ($9,500) was limited to just five catches for 40 yards as the Patriots schemed coverage his way. However, Jaylen Waddle ($7,500) caught four passes for 86 yards.
Given the way the Patriots defense operates, it could be another good spot for Waddle here. He has the speed and big play ability to pay off his salary on just a few catches. Of course, simply rostering Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700) and not worrying about who he throws to is a sound strategy as well.
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Denver Broncos OL (#1 in Combined Line Yards, #23 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Kansas City Chiefs DL
We’ve touched on it in this column in the past, but this is a Chiefs team built to stop the pass while having some “bend” against the run. They rank 13th in adjusted sack rate but 29th in adjusted line yards, with similar DVOA splits.
That’s a solid way to build a defense when you have the Chiefs offense, though. Teams rarely have a chance to exploit the Chiefs’ weakness against the running game, as they so often find themselves playing from behind. That’s what Vegas is expecting again this week, with the Chiefs favored by seven points.
That makes it hard to exploit this matchup for DFS purposes. However, it could still be worth taking a flyer on Javonte Williams ($5,200). He set a season-high in snaps and carries last week and is at, if not near 100% after recovering from a torn ACL last season.
Williams having a week-winning score likely depends on this game staying close, so keep that in mind if building rosters around him. The efficiency will almost certainly be there — he averaged over five yards per carry when these teams last met — but the volume is a question mark.
Kansas City Chiefs OL (#2 in Combined Line Yards, #2 in Combined Sack Rate) vs. Denver Broncos DL
On the other side of this one, the Chiefs should dominate in the trenches against a terrible Broncos defense. While they showed signs of life last week against the Packers, Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) and Travis Kelce ($8,400) are a far cry from Jordan Love and Luke Musgrave in terms of opponent quality.
With this matchup standing out both on the ground and through the air, Isaiah Pacheco ($6,100) is also an interesting option. However, this is a timeshare backfield for the league’s pass-heaviest offense, so his volume is far from guaranteed as well.
One option here is to pair the Chiefs’ passing game with the Broncos’ Williams and hope that Denver gets out to an early lead and elevates the volume on both sides. Of course, just rostering Mahomes and Kelce without a bring-back is always an option — it just won the Milly Maker last week.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Philadelphia Eagles DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs.Washington Commanders OL
Any defense against the Commanders is likely to stand out this season. They just allowed six sacks against the Giants, who came into the week ranked 31st in adjusted sack rate. That was in a reasonably close game as well.
This week sets up even worse for the Commanders line. They’re facing Philadelphia ($4,300), who comes into the week ranked 12th in adjusted sack rate — and will likely leave the week well inside the top ten. The game script should also lead to more Commanders dropbacks, with the Eagles favored by roughly a touchdown.
Obviously, the $4,300 price tag is steep for a defense. However, if they turn in a handful of sacks and manage to score a touchdown somewhere in there, they could be what separates the top lineups in GPPs this week. It’s tough to get there, but I’ll be rostering some Eagles defense lineups in GPPs.
Cleveland Browns DL (#3 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Seattle Seahawks OL
In the midrange of defense salary, we have Cleveland ($3,000). They’re slight underdogs as they travel to Seattle, but the Browns feature one of the league’s top overall defenses and the top pass rush by adjusted sack rate on the season.
Seattle isn’t a bad blocking unit, but they’ll have their hands full with Myles Garrett and company in what looks to be a close game. The Browns should have plenty of chances to rush the passer, too, with Seattle checking in at eighth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation.
All of these combine to make the Browns an interesting option at a mostly reasonable salary. Their $3,000 price tag would’ve been on the higher end in past seasons, but the aggressive pricing on DraftKings this year makes that a more reasonable amount to pay this year.
Washington Commanders DL (#9 in Combined Pressure Rate) vs. Philadelphia Eagles OL
At the bottom of the price range, we have Washington ($2,300). On the one hand, they’re actually underpriced, considering their top-eight adjusted sack rate on the season. On the other, they could end up scoring in the negatives against the explosive Eagles offense.
Still, of all the teams below $3,000 or so, they have the best-projected matchup up front. If trying to punt defense in order to save salary, you could do a lot worse than rostering a team with Chase Young and Montez Sweat coming off the edges.
As an added note, Jalen Hurts appeared to be dealing with a knee injury following last week’s game. While he’s highly unlikely to miss the game, a drop in mobility would be a massive boost to the Commanders defense.
