Week 7 features a 10-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
It’s hard to feel great about any of the quarterbacks at the top this week. Only two teams are implied for more than 25 points, and we’ve yet to see a true ceiling game from either of their quarterbacks.
Including Patrick Mahomes ($8,300), who’s been consistently solid yet underwhelming so far in the 2023 season. The lack of elite — or even very good — receivers on the Chiefs has limited his upside, with a high score of 25.68 DraftKings points.
On the other hand, he still has Travis Kelce ($8,000) at tight end — and the best game environment on the slate this week. Kansas City is favored by 5.5 at home against the Chargers, who rank 21st in DVOA against the pass while allowing the second-highest yards per passing play against.
We’re also expecting the Chargers to do enough to keep the Chiefs aggressive here, especially considering Kansas City’s league-leading pass rate over expectation (PROE). As long as the game is even remotely close, there should be plenty of dropbacks for Mahomes.
The likeliest outcome is another mid-20s score for Mahomes, but there’s upside for more should he click with his mostly unproven receiver core. With their Week 6 game being on Thursday, Kansas City is coming off a mini-bye of sorts, which bodes especially well for rookie Rashee Rice ($4,700). If Rice could emerge as a true threat through the air, we might just get back to some classic Mahomes ceiling games.
Value
There are plenty of cheap quarterback options on the slate, unsurprisingly, since half of the games have a total of 43 or below. None jump off the screen as a true steal this week, with reasonable concerns surrounding all of the sub-$6,000 options.
Of the group, Russell Wilson ($5,400) may just be the best of the bunch, as scary as it sounds. He’s averaging a respectable 19.2 points per contest but has seen his salary plummet thanks to a dreadful performance last week in Arrowhead.
That’s probably not a fair sample of Wilson’s range of outcomes, though, given the Chiefs’ tough pass defense (6th in DVOA against the pass). The matchup is considerably better this week against Green Bay, who rank a middling 14th in DVOA against the pass.
This game also trails only Chargers-Chiefs in terms of Vegas total, despite both quarterbacks coming in more than $2,000 cheaper. While that’s no guarantee the production comes through the air, Wilson at least has a solid receiving core to throw to and a long week to build a game plan.
He ranks second in Pts/Sal projection this week and is firmly in play for GPPs thanks to a concentrated passing attack through Courtland Sutton ($5,200).
Quick Hits
The only passer to top Wilson in Pts/Sal this week is Geno Smith ($6,000), whose Seahawks take on a Cardinals team that has plummeted back to earth following a surprising start. Arizona ranks 27th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and 31st in DVOA against the pass. Smith should be efficient here, but it’s reasonable to question the Seattle passing volume in a game where they’re favored by more than a touchdown.
The Lions Jared Goff ($6,400) is a bit pricey for his likeliest outcome against a tough Ravens defense. On the other hand, he’s coming off consecutive 25+ point performances. Detroit will be without top running back David Montgomery and could be down 1B option Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300) as well. Even if Gibbs plays, Detroit has been hesitant to feed him carries in his return from injury. That could lead to another pass-heavy game script for the Lions after Goff attempted 44 passes last week.
I’m almost always interested in the quarterback playing against the Chiefs, which this week is Justin Herbert ($8,000). While the Chiefs’ defense is strong this year, the game environment is easily the best on the slate. Herbert has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in every game this season, with an outside shot to go for 30+ in a week where we aren’t anticipating many massive QB scores.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
It’s an ugly week across the board with all the low totals. That’s equally evident at running back, where Josh Jacobs ($7,400) leads our median projections. His projection isn’t enough to pay off his price tag on a normal week, but still stand out in the context of this slate.
He has arguably the best workload in the league this season, averaging just under 18 carries per game. Once thought of as a pure rushing back, he’s somewhat quietly leading the league in target share among running backs this season. His nearly six targets per game is huge on full-PPR DraftKings and gives him some insurance against negative game scripts.
Not that a negative game script is a big concern here in the backup quarterback bowl against the lowly Bears. Chicago is starting an undrafted rookie at quarterback, while Vegas is going with Brian Hoyer ($4,900). That means both teams should lean on the run, with the Raiders likely to be playing from in front.
Jacobs has been horribly inefficient this season, but it’s hard to argue with the workload. He should do more on a per-touch basis against a bad Bears defense, making him the top play at the position in Week 7.
Value
Unlike at the top, the pool of value running backs is fairly deep this week. Depending on your definition of “value,” the top option is one off Isaiah Pacheco ($6,100).
Pacheco is starting to separate as a true RB1 this season if not exactly a workhorse. He’s seen at least 15 carries in four straight games for the Chiefs while averaging just over three targets per contest in that span. Those aren’t massive numbers, but given his salary and the lower-scoring environment on the slate, it’s enough to make him a solid option.
Quick Hits
The Rams Zach Evans ($4,000) is a potential pivot from Johnson this week. Los Angeles seemed to have finally found some stability at the position with Kyren Williams until an ankle injury took him out for a (likely) injured reserve stint. The Rams will also be without No. 2 back Ronnie Rivers, who’s already been placed on IR.
That leaves Evans — maybe — as the Rams de facto No. 1 back heading into Week 7. They’ve also signed Royce Freeman ($4,000) from the practice squad and signed Myles Gaskin and Darrell Henderson to the practice squad — with one of them likely to be elevated. Still, the Rams seem to prefer Evans over those players since he’s been their third back this season. I’m not confident enough in that last statement to roster Evans in cash, but at the stone-minimum salary, he’s worth some GPP flyers.
Elsewhere, Kenneth Walker ($7,000) narrowly trails Jacobs for the top overall running back projection. He’s limited somewhat by his lack of receiving volume, but that’s less of an issue with Seattle favored by 7.5 against the Cardinals. He’s sharing carries with rookie Zach Charbonet ($4,300), but it’s not hard to see him beating Jacobs on efficiency.
He’s yet to this year, but Aaron Jones ($6,800) historically pops up for a random ceiling game about once a year. He went for over 40 points once in 2021 and over 35 once in 2022. If he’s fully healthy this week — a big if — it’s as good a time as any with backfield mate AJ Dillon ($5,300) playing so poorly this season. Given the lack of elite running back projections on the slate, a rare outburst would also be more valuable this week than usual, so I’ll be mixing Jones in a few lineups.
Finally, as a thinner option, we have the Lions Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,300). The Lions seem uber-committed to managing his workload, which is unlikely to change following an injury. However, he should be the primary third down back in a game where the Lions are slight underdogs. He also has the burst to break a few big plays, even on limited volume. A 99th percentile 40-yard dash time is pretty good, right?
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
There was some question as to how effective Cooper Kupp ($9,500) would be when returning from an ankle injury that sidelined him for four weeks. Those questions have been answered, with Kupp seeing 21 targets and averaging over 26 DraftKings points in his two games back.
Now, the Rams running back situation could lead to an even bigger workload for Kupp, with LA likely to tilt more pass-heavy rather than hand the ball to players who were unemployed 5 days ago. Kupp’s absurd 38% target share when healthy would easily lead the NFL this season, and his short-yardage routes could serve as the de facto run game for the Rams.
It’s projecting as a relatively slow-paced affair against the Steelers, which limits Kupp’s projection a bit here. He’s overpriced relative to his median outcome — but so is every receiver at the top this week. If there were tons of $8K range options I wanted to play, it would be hard to get up to Kupp — but it’s a bit easier this week.
Value
One of the reasons Kupp is so accessible is the value elsewhere at the receiver position. Much like at running back, there’s a handful of bargain players expected to outperform their salary. My favorite of that bunch is Josh Palmer ($4,800) of the Chargers.
Since Mike Williams went down for the season, Palmer has seen a near-WR1 target share of 24.59% in one of the more pass-heavy passing attacks in the league. They should be even more pass-focused in Week 7, as 5.5-point underdogs to the Chiefs. Palmer leads our models in Pts/Sal projection.
Another option is Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,800), the Giants’ leading receiver since his season debut in Week 3. It’s just an absurd price for a pseudo-WR1 who is a near-lock for at least five targets. It’s also a great matchup against a Commanders defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass, regardless of who is under center for the G-Men.
Quick Hits
My favorite pivot from Kupp this week is Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000). He’s not projecting quite as well as other players in his range due to a somewhat tough matchup, but the Lions running back situation could see him play a massive role. As we touched on with Kupp, Detroit wants to be a run-first team, but they’re highly adaptable to the situation at hand. Last week he saw 15 targets in an easy win and could challenge that number again in a close game.
Also at the top is Stefon Diggs ($8,900), whose 33.85% target share trails only Puka Nacua ($7,600) of the Rams on the season. Diggs is likely to surpass Nacua in that metric with the return of Kupp. Diggs has scored at least 28 points in half of the Bills games this season. It’s a tough matchup against a Patriots defense known for isolating their opponent’s top weapon, but Diggs can win in any matchup. Or, teammate Gabe Davis ($5,900) has one of his sporadic breakout games with the defense tilted toward Diggs.
On the thinner side, Rondale Moore ($3,500) has an intriguing matchup against a Seahawks team that’s been shredded by slot receivers this year. St. Brown, Nacua, and Adam Thielen all topped 100 yards from the slot against Seattle. Tyler Boyd also posted a 7/38/1 line. Moore has played in the slot in more than two-thirds of his snaps in 2023. While he’s a lesser play than those previously mentioned, he’s seen 12 targets and six carries in the last two weeks. He’s in line for a good — for him — game this week.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
I could probably just copy and paste this section every week with a quick update on the salary. That’s because, as always, Travis Kelce ($8,000) is clearly the best raw play at the tight end position.
He leads the field by nearly five points in median projection this week — and by $2,300 in salary. That makes him a tough play in most rosters, though, given the limited upside elsewhere on the slate, he’s a bit easier to get to. He’d be the WR12 on the season in terms of PPR points, and five of the eleven players in front of him aren’t on the Week 7 main slate.
To put it another way, his Pts/Sal projection this week is higher than Kupp’s at a position where it’s far harder to find production. Especially if rostering Mahomes, Kelce is a strong option despite his price tag.
Value
There are a few players that fit the bill this week. None of them inspire a ton of confidence, but you could tell yourself a story about why each of them is a strong play this week.
Of those players, I’m particularly interested in rookie second-round pick Trey McBride ($2,600). McBride finally pulled ahead of the corpse of Zach Ertz ($3,200) in snap count last week while tying the least athletic man in football with five targets.
It never really made sense for a rebuilding Cardinals team to give so much run to an over-the-hill veteran in Ertz when they could be developing the tight end of the future in McBride. It remains to be seen if this trend continues over the coming weeks, but it almost makes too much sense not to. Almost.
Still, McBride has the athletic tools to excel at the position, which gives him plenty of upside relative to his near-minimum salary:
Quick Hits
Logan Thomas ($3,500) leads our Pts/Sal projections at the position this week. Washington’s tight end has a wide range of outcomes, having seen 11 targets in Week 5 then just one last week. I’d rather take the risk on a player like McBride, who’s $900 cheaper in cash games, but Thomas has some GPP appeal at a much lower ownership.
Right behind Thomas in Pts/Sal is Luke Musgrave ($3,300), who saw seven targets last week…after seeing just one in Week 5. Like Thomas, he has a fairly wide range of outcomes depending on how the Packers’ game plan shakes out this week. Like McBride, he’s a rookie second-round pick who should theoretically be more involved as the season wears on.
If the Lions go as pass-heavy as I’m anticipating, Sam Laporta ($5,300) could challenge Kelce for the top option on the slate. While he has more target competition, Laporta ranks third in PPR, scoring at the position in 2023. He’s seen double-digit targets twice this year and could do it again. Especially if the underdog Lions see a rare negative game script.
Yet another rookie is in play this week, with the Raiders slowly getting Michael Mayer ($2,700) more involved. Like McBride, he saw a season (and thus, career) high in targets last week. It’s hard to know if that trend will continue for either player. I like McBride’s chances slightly better due to the game environment — Arizona is a big underdog while the Raiders are favored — but it’s relatively close between them.
GPP Roster Construction
It feels like a safe bet that this week will have the lowest winning scores of the season in tournaments, thanks to all of the low totals across the board. That makes it an interesting challenge for GPPs, as we’re searching more for players with a high chance of getting you 25 than players we think could go for 40.
There are very few of the latter type around, and 25-30 could end up leading each position. Rather than focus on stacks, I’ll be starting my lineups around players who could separate at their position, then building around the likely game script that got them there.
The obvious answer for players who can separate is Cooper Kupp and Travis Kelce. In the former case, we probably need the Steelers to do something on offense to push the pace, which is plausible against a poor Rams defense. Los Angeles is roughly equally bad against the pass and the run, so you could pair Kupp with George Pickens ($5,500) or Najee Harris ($5,200) or even with Steelers stacks. Kupp could easily be a week-winner without bringing Matthew Stafford ($6,500) along with him, so I won’t be forcing that stack.
It’s a similar story for Kelce, with plenty of viable Chargers bringbacks. I’m a bit more interested in Mahomes and Chiefs stacks than I am Rams, as there’s a chance one of their wide receivers finally breaks out against the Chargers pass defense.
Other players/spots I’m building around include the Lions passing attack, with all of their key components (including Gibbs if active) as reasonable pieces. When rostering Goff, I’ll be pairing him with two of the three primary receiver options. Goff’s lack of rushing ability (and somewhat high salary) means he’ll likely need big days from two of his receivers to have a GPP-winning performance.
I touched on Aaron Jones in the running back section, but building around the Packers-Broncos game is also worthy of a chunk of your rosters. This game briefly has the second-highest total on the slate below Chargers/Chiefs, but the key offensive pieces should come in lower owned while being priced cheaper. The Denver defense has a (well-earned) reputation for being awful against the pass, but they also rank 31st in DVOA against the run. This could be a shootout if Denver can do anything offensively.
Of course, we’ll still want some exposure to the Chargers-Chiefs game. My preferred way to attack it is through Pacheco paired with the Chargers passing attack. Outside of Kelce — who’s salary makes him a tough click — none of the Chiefs pass-catchers have week-winning upside that they’ve shown so far. Pacheco does, and I love the correlation between his rushing production and the Chargers passing.
As always, I’ll be mixing and matching defense and tight end as salary allows. I’m particularly interested in getting exposure to all of the viable rookie tight ends. Outside of Laporta, they all have extremely low floors, but each of them has considerable upside.
Cash Games
It’s a challenging week for cash, as seemingly every player is overpriced for their likeliest outcome. The Chargers Josh Palmer is the closest thing there is to a lock on the slate. I’ll likely pair him with a top receiver — probably Kupp — while saving salary elsewhere.
Mainly running back, where we could potentially play two cheaper options in Roschon Johnson and Zach Evans. That would allow lineups to fit two out of “Kupp/Kelce/Expensive QB” while still playing Jacobs. I have my doubts about Evans, though, so I’ll probably stick to Johnson (assuming he’s cleared) and two of Jacobs/Walker/Pacheco.
Note: Johnson has been ruled out.
Which forces a cheaper option at quarterback. None of those are particularly comfortable this week, but we might have to stomach Russell Wilson if we aren’t willing to pay up to the $8,000 range. Mr. Unlimited, let’s ride.
Which leaves us tight end. Our options include paying up for Kelce, who’s overpriced for his likeliest outcome, taking a “safe” player in the mid-range who is unlikely to give us 0 but equally unlikely to post a big score, or rolling the dice on one of the rookies.
I’ll take a near-minimum dice roll given those options, which leaves McBride and Mayer. I prefer McBride fairly strongly this week, but our projections lean toward Mayer. It’s probably a closer call than either my feelings or the projections would indicate. Still, it’s the kind of micro-call that could make or break a cash lineup. Isn’t DFS fun?
Finally, defense is a bit hard to call until we know the health status of the various banged-up quarterbacks. It’s tempting to find the salary for Washington ($3,500) if Daniel Jones is out again, given the mess that is the Giants offense. Or go with the NY Giants ($3,000) themselves, as Washington has the worst adjusted sack rate in the league.
On the cheaper side, the Chiefs ($2,400) are my favorite of the lower-priced teams. While the total is high, Kansas City is a top-ten defense by DVOA this season. It’s also a divisional game at Arrowhead Stadium, which has historically served this defense well:
For a more in-depth look at each position, be sure to check out our positional breakdowns by Matt Martin or any of our other NFL content.
Good luck this week!
