The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Detroit Lions – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
The Ravens and Lions are both trying to prove they can be playoff contenders and have a fascinating “measuring stick” matchup this Sunday in the early window. Lamar Jackson has the highest ceiling projection of all QBs on FanDuel in both the FantasyLabs projections and THE BLITZ projections, while he comes in second in Raybon’s behind only Patrick Mahomes. On DraftKings, Jackson keeps the highest ceiling in THE BLITZ projections and stays second in Raybon’s and FantasyLabs’.
The reason why Jackson is such a strong play this week is that he’s only the fourth-highest-priced option at the position on both sites but has the potential to outproduce that price point. He’s projected for the most Pts/Sal and the highest projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback on FanDuel using a three-way blended aggregate projection of FantasyLabs, THE BLITZ, and Raybon (with a third to each of those three sets of projections).
Jackson and the Ravens won in London last week by beating the Titans. Jackson didn’t run for a touchdown but did add 62 rushing yards to his 223 passing yards and threw his fifth touchdown of the year. In his last home game, he ran for 101 yards and two touchdowns while throwing for 202 yards in an overtime loss to the Colts. That was one of his two games this season in which he exceeded salary-based expectations.
He is averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game this season, and his rushing potential gives him a very high ceiling. He is averaging 54.5 rushing yards per contest on the season and has added four rushing touchdowns. Since the Ravens’ backfield is still very much a work in progress, Jackson often has to carry the workload in the ground game as well as the passing game.
Facing the Lions, Jackson will likely be under pressure much of the day, but that could actually lead to an even bigger game for Lamar. Jackson ranks seventh in pressured passing grade and leads all quarterbacks in big-time throw rate when pressured. He also can escape from the pocket and turn broken plays into big runs. The Lions’ secondary has allowed eight passing touchdowns in six games, along with an average of 242.3 passing yards per game.
Top Value: Geno Smith vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
In his divisional matchup with the Cardinals, Geno Smith stands out as a top value at QB this week. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest Pts/Sal of all QBs on DraftKings in the three-way aggregated projections and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the QBs on FanDuel using the aggregated projections, behind only Jackson.
Geno and the ‘Hawks will be looking for a bounce-back spot after losing on the road in Cincinnati last week following their bye week. Smith had a great yardage total with 323 passing yards against the Bengals but couldn’t get the ball into the end zone. In fact, he led two potentially game-winning drives that ended in turnovers on downs within the 10-yard line. He still had a decent 15.92 DraftKings points and 12.92 FanDuel points, which could have been a big game if he found the end zone.
Before last week, He hadn’t had touchdown trouble this season, with five passing scores in four games. His only multi-touchdown game was also his best fantasy game of the year, which came in Week 2 during a big road win in Detroit.
The Cardinals have been the fifth-best matchup for quarterbacks this season and give Smith the third-highest Opponents Plus/Minus on Sunday’s slate. They have surrendered nine passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, along with an average of 266.3 passing yards
This NFC West matchup has the third-highest over/under on the slate at 44.5 points, and the Seahawks bring the second-highest implied team point total behind only Mahomes’ Chiefs.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Jacobs at Chicago Bears – $7,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Without Christian McCaffrey on the main slate, there are a few options to consider if paying up for a big-ticket running back. Using the three-way aggregate projections, Jacobs has the highest ceiling projection on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. He’s actually a little under-priced based on that projection since he has the third-highest DraftKings salary and fourth-highest FanDuel salary at the position.
Jacobs and the Raiders face off against the Bears in Chicago in a game script that should lead to plenty of volume for the running games. Both teams are expected to be without their starting quarterbacks, with Jimmy Garoppolo (back) and Justin Fields (thumb) both trending toward being sidelined.
When Garoppolo missed Week 4, Aidan O’Connell started at quarterback for the Raiders, and Jacobs carried the load with 58 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries and 81 more yards on eight catches. It was his best and busiest receiving game of the year, and Jacobs will likely be a top check-down option for O’Connell or Brian Hoyer this week.
Jacobs has averaged 52 rushing yards and 34.8 receiving yards per game and has found the end zone twice. In each of those games with a touchdown, he has exceeded salary-based expectations.
The Raiders should be able to lean heavily on Jacobs this week against the Bears, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and given up a total of eight running back touchdowns in six games. They have also allowed at least four catches to opposing running backs in every game this season. Given his workload as a receiving option and his likelihood of a touchdown, Jacobs is a great play as the focus of the Vegas game plan this week.
Top Value: Isiah Pacheco vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Especially on DraftKings, Isiah Pacheco is a great option since he has the 11th-highest salary at the position and a 93% Bargain Rating. Pacheco has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the running backs on the slate using the three-way blended projections and is tied for the highest projected Pts/Sal. He’s a little less affordable on FanDuel but still brings a high ceiling projection. He has the fourth-highest ceiling projection of all running backs in the three-way aggregated projections on FanDuel and the fifth-highest on DraftKings.
Pacheco has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games. He had rushing touchdowns in each of the first three of those contests, and last week, he emerged as a threat in the passing game with a season-high six catches for 36 yards. He has played around 60% of the Chiefs’ snaps in each of the last three weeks and continues to emerge as the most productive running back option in this high-scoring offense.
The Chiefs have the highest Implied Team Total this week in the game with the highest over/under. The Chargers rank in the middle of the pack against running backs, but they have given up at least 120 rushing + receiving yards in each of their four most recent matchups.
If you need some more salary relief at running back, some cheaper values popping in the projections are Rachaad White of the Buccaneers, Jerome Ford of the Browns, and Zach Evans of the Rams, who is expected to take over in place of the injured Kyren Williams.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Stefon Diggs at New England Patriots – $8,900 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Stefon Diggs has been incredibly consistent this season, and he brings the second-highest projected ceiling of all wide receivers on FanDuel using the three-way blended projections. He gets edged out for second on DraftKings by Keenan Allen (who is also a great play) but still comes in the top three.
Diggs has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in each of his past four games. He has posted at least 100 yards receiving in each of those games while averaging 8.0 receptions on 11.5 targets per game for 113.0 yards per contest. He had his huge three-touchdown game against the Dolphins during that span and also had a touchdown against the Jaguars.
Diggs leads the NFL with a 31.2% target share and ranks in the top 10 in red zone targets as well. He remains the clear go-to option for Josh Allen, and the duo should be motivated to post a big number this week against their division rivals in New England. The struggling Patriots have given up five wide receiver touchdowns this season and allowed an average of 144 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. Diggs lit them up last year for 92 and 104 yards while scoring a touchdown in each matchup.
Given his substantial role and how beatable New England has looked lately, Diggs should be able to keep going off and deliver another ceiling performance in this matchup.
Top Value: Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Washington Commanders – $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Using the three-way blended projections, Robinson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the wide receivers on the DraftKings slate and also brings the highest Pts/Sal. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive but still grades out as one of the best plays under $6K.
Robinson has been brought along slowly by the Giants after his offseason knee surgery, but he has been able to exceed salary-based expectations on DraftKings in each of his three games since returning to a full workload. He caught at least five passes in each of those three games. Last week against the Bills, he hauled in all eight of his targets for a season-high 62 yards. That production came with Tyrod Taylor under center, and last year he showed plenty of potential working with Daniel Jones. Whichever quarterback plays against Washington this week, Robinson is a strong value play.
On the year, Robinson has converted 22 of his 25 targets into catches and totaled 141 yards. He is still looking for the first touchdown of his sophomore season, but that should come soon if he continues to grow into a more productive role.
This week should be a good spot for Robinson since Washington has allowed nine wide receiver touchdowns in their six games this year. They have given up over 200 receiving yards to wide receivers per game. While the Giants passing game isn’t normally one to target, Robinson has a high enough ceiling in this favorable spot to be a great cheap play.
Other cheap options to consider based on the projections include Elijah Moore of the Browns, Joshua Palmer of the Chargers, and Tutu Atwell of the Rams.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
He’s priced at a whole different level than the rest of the players at his position, but Travis Kelce still shows as a strong play in the projections. He has the highest ceiling projection by a wide margin in the aggregate projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and there’s a strong case to be made that he’s actually still a value. Again using the aggregated projections, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and is tied for the third-highest Pts/Sal at the position on DraftKings.
Kelce has exceeded even his lofty salary-based expectations in three of his past four games. He had a season-high 124 yards while hauling in all nine of his targets last Thursday night, and the extra rest since then should only help him recover from his knee and ankle injuries that popped up earlier in the season.
Against the Chargers, Kelce should be set up for more success. The last time he faced them, he went off for 115 yards and three touchdowns. At this point, he’s virtually matchup-proof and can go off in any situation. If you can afford to fit his salary under your cap, there’s no question that he’s the safest play at the position with the highest ceiling.
Top Value: Luke Musgrave at Denver Broncos – $3,300 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Musgrave has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends and is in the top five for Pts/Sal at the position.
His matchup is a good one since it was the Broncos that Kelce just tore up last Thursday. Denver has given up more DraftKings points to tight ends than any other team in the NFL, allowing three tight end touchdowns and an average of 75.7 yards to the position per game.
Musgrave should be able to take advantage of the matchup and vastly out-produce his price point. He ranks No. 14 in terms of salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but his ceiling, median, and floor projections are comfortably in the top 10 on both sites using the aggregated projections.
His only down game was a one-catch performance that he left with a concussion. Aside from that, the rookie has averaged 4.25 catches on 6.75 targets per game for an average of 39.5 yards per game. The Packers love to target him deep as well, so he brings big-play and big-game potential in this favorable matchup on Sunday.
