It’s finally pay-per-view week, with a stacked UFC 294 card going down from Abu Dhabi early on Saturday morning. The time zone change means we have a special 10 a.m. ET start time for the 12-fight card, so get your lineups set early.
The main event features an impromptu rematch between lightweight kingpin Islam Makhachev and featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. Makhachev was originally booked to take on Charles Oliveira, but an injury to the Brazilian means a UFC 284 rematch is up instead.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Islam Makhachev ($8,700) vs. Alexander Volkanovski ($7,500)
This bout came together on just 11 days’ notice, with the original fight — also a rematch for Makhachev — falling apart. The first fight between these two was far closer than expected, with Volkanovski’s bid to move up in weight and claim a second title falling just short. Two of the three judges had Makhachev winning three rounds to two, and there’s certainly a case to be made that Volk was the rightful winner.
It was a tremendous fight from a DFS standpoint, with the pair combining for 156 DraftKings points, largely thanks to takedowns from the champion and strikes from the challenger. Both are averaging over 90 points per contest in their UFC careers — though with just one loss apiece, that’s partially a function of plenty of win bonuses.
This line and salary would likely be considerably closer if Volkanovski had a full training camp. He looked to be about +120 at worst in the first fight but is a +210 underdog at UFC 294. It’s hard to quantify the lack of a camp’s impact on his chances here. It’s a drastically different opponent stylistically for Makhachev, but Volkanovski might not have the cardio to go five rounds at his normal pace.
However, his typical output is high enough that Volkanovski could end up in the optimal lineup even in a losing effort, especially if all of the heavy favorites on the slate come through. Another 60-point score for “The Great” might be enough if the other cheaper fighters all fail.
That leaves me open to stacking this fight for GPPs, though you still can’t fit five favored fighters with that strategy. I’ll certainly stack it for cash games, though, and have exposure to both fighters in every GPP lineup.
The Easy Chalk
Ikram Aliskerov ($9,500)
Most of the attention in the past two weeks has been on the main and co-main event. Both bouts had one of the original fighters drop off, with big names stepping in their place. However, there was a third main-card bout reshuffled: Aliskerov’s planned tilt with French middleweight Nassourdine Imavov.
Imavov was an appropriate opponent for the 14-1 Aliskerov, whose only career loss was to fellow UFC 294 competitor Khamzat Chimaev. Imavov is currently ranked #11 in the UFC middleweight division, with a 4-2 record in the promotion.
Aliskerov’s new opponent is less deserving. That would be Warlley Alves ($6,700), a fighter who’s dropped three of his last four bouts in the welterweight division.
Aliskerov is even money to finish this fight in the first round and -250 to finish this one at some point. He’s an easy choice at the top of the salary range, with the highest median projection outside of the five-round fight in our models.
The Upside Plays
Khamzat Chimaev ($8.900)
Speaking of Khamzat, he, too, saw an opponent switch late last week. Instead of fighting middleweight contender Paulo Costa, he now draws former welterweight champ Kamaru Usman ($7,300).
While Khamzat also primarily fought at welterweight so far in his UFC career, his eight-pound weight miss last fall nearly destroyed a UFC event. He’s had nearly a year since then to bulk up to 185 and was already a massive welterweight. Usman is similarly huge at 170, but given the lack of lead time, this fight will be considerably smaller than Chimaev.
Which will be a major problem given Chimaev’s brutal wrestling and top game. The Dagestani-born fighter is averaging nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career, despite having four first-round finishes in six wins. Usman is also known for his wrestling, but at 36 is past his physical peak.
The technical striking and fight IQ of Usman could make this a closer fight, as we saw between Chimaev and Gilbert Burns. That is if Usman had a full camp to prepare for the unique challenges of Chimaev. I’m not worried about the game plan for the favorite, as his approach is essentially identical no matter who he’s fighting.
Chimaev is “only” -125 to finish this fight, but his wrestling gives him a path to upside, even if this one lasts the full 15 minutes. He topped 100 points in his lone UFC fight that saw the judges and has a strong chance of doing so again here.
Sharabutin Magomedov ($8.600)
“Sharabullet” is one of the more intriguing UFC prospects in a while. Despite hailing from the Caucasus region known for its elite grapplers, he’s a pure striker with knockouts in ten of his 11 pro wins.
He has brutal power in both hands, as well as his feet, elbows and knees. His highlight reel can attest to that, and he’s fought pretty tough opposition in his pre-UFC career.
More importantly, he should find a willing dance partner in a striking battle in Burno Silva ($7,600). Silva is a fellow Muay Thai practitioner who’s taken down just one of his seven UFC opponents. Silva is also 1-3 over his last four and seems to be here to make Magomedov look good rather than test him.
Still, I’m slightly worried that Silva takes the easy path to victory here with takedowns. It’s also possible that Magomedov’s past opposition isn’t as solid as their records appear. However, both of those concerns are lessened by the fact that he fought primarily in Russia, where grappling holes are quickly exposed.
While I’ll be mixing in a bit of Silva, Magomedov is far too cheap for a fighter who’s -120 to pick up a knockout.
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The Value Play
Jinh Yu Frey ($7,000)
Value is extremely hard to come by at UFC 294. The wide betting lines across the card mean the underdogs are all overpriced based on their odds, and just two underdogs (Tim Elliot ($6,600) and Mike Breeden ($6,900)) have seen line movement in their favor.
There’s a case to be made that Elliot should be the choice here. He now has better odds than Frey at a cheaper price, with similar stoppage odds. However, he has a matchup against an elite wrestler and is unlikely to be able to score points even if his fight goes all 15 minutes.
While I don’t really want to play any of these fighters in cash games, Frey might be my choice if I have to. She’s fighting upstart Victoria Dduakova ($9,200), a Russian who’s 1-0 in the UFC following a freak injury to her opponent. Dudakova is primarily a grappler, and Frey’s 89% career takedown defense should serve her well in the matchup.
The issue is Frey is unlikely to win the striking exchanges here, but she should at least have the opportunity to pick up some volume-based points. Other fighters in her price range are likelier to win their fights, but she might have the highest odds of scoring 15 or so points.
Obviously, I’ll be staying away from Frey for cash games and trying to find builds that avoid this price range for cash games if I can. That’s a tough task this week, though, so I may have to grit my teeth and click Frey’s name.
The Contrarian Choice
Johnny Walker ($7,100)
Amid the slew of big underdogs on the UFC card, one name stands out as having a considerably higher ceiling than the rest of the bunch. That’s Walker, a +280 underdog against Magomed Ankalaev ($9,100) on the UFC 294 main card.
It’s hard to get a read on Walker, a wild striker who went 1-4 against mostly top-tier competition from 2019 to early 2022. He had serious issues with fight IQ during that span, getting into brawls with strikers and fighting far too cautiously at times. Since then, he’s gone 3-0 with two first-round stoppages and seems to have found a balance between his unorthodox striking and technical soundness.
Ankalaev was a heavy favorite in his fight for the vacant UFC light heavyweight title late last year but fought to a draw with Jan Blachowicz. Ankalaev was thoroughly outclassed through the first three rounds of that fight and salvaged a draw with a dominant fifth round against a gassed Blachowicz.
Crucially, he was picked apart with leg kicks in that fight, a bad omen against Walker. Walker is the tallest and longest fighter in the division, and with the bigger cage should be able to stay on the outside and chop at Ankalaev’s legs.
Walker also has an underrated ground game, with a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He should be able to at least survive the grappling encounters here while having an edge on the feet.
Ankalaev is a deserving favorite here, but Walker has a better shot here than his salary would indicate. Rostering him also frees up a ton of salary for the heavy favorites on the card and is my favorite option for getting up to them in salary.
The Swing Fight
Trevor Peek ($8,200) vs. Mohammad Yahya ($8,000)
Getting the $8,200/$8,000 fight right is frequently the key to winning GPPs and cashing double-ups. That’s even more the case this week, given the relative lack of value and the need to save salary somewhere in our lineups.
Based on the betting lines here, we’d expect this fight to have wider salary distributions, as Peek is now a -166 favorite on DraftKings. That speaks to the plethora of long odds on the card, as well as the significant movement towards Peek since these lines opened. Peek was an underdog at open, and -125 or so when salaries dropped.
This is a fairly binary fight with a clear path to upside for both fighters. Peek is a wild, powerful brawler who’s -110 to pick up a knockout. Yahya is a much more well-rounded fighter whose pre-UFC tape showed cardio and wrestling as his strengths. For more on how they match up from a technical standpoint, check out my Action Network betting preview of the fight.
The movement of the betting line suggests that Peek will be heavily owned. Especially with the lack of viable options at the bottom of the salary scale. For that reason, I want to be overweight on Yahya. I expect him to be the better fighter after the first six or so minutes.
Additionally, his takedown ability, mixed with Peek’s ability to return to his feet, could lead to a big score for Yahya. It’s a risky strategy given Peek’s power, though, so I’ll be hedging with a fair share of Peek lineups.
For cash games, Peek is tempting based on pure value alone. He’s far cheaper than we’d normally see a fighter with a -166 moneyline. I’d rather fade this fight in cash games, though, as the floor for both fighters is extremely low.
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